Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

[RedToothBrush]

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

Labour's collapse could (should) mean Corbyn will go. And they need to embrace Remain now. Full on. Anyone who was really committed to Leave had the chance to say so in this election. Everyone else is not bothered enough or is actively anti-Brexit.

I said up thread that LD might sneak a seat in Wales! Wow!

If LDs are third, Lab won't get a seat...

... In Wales.

Can I repeat that

Labour won't get a seat in WALES

Wow, Labour is finished in it's heartlands.. A GE at this stage would be very, very interesting. (although depressing, as English Tories would probably STILL get a majority)

susan Policy is very important to us, but doesn't seem to be for the fanatical Faragists
So long as the manifesto says No Deal, most won't care about anything else

If the party implodes, it would be much more likely Farage clashing with MEPs etc who want a say in the party
or even getting into real trouble over expenses or US / Trump dealings

Patrick Maguire
‏*@patrickkmaguire*

Tommy Robinson polling very badly in Sefton, says source at count — mustering only a couple of hundred votes per constituency (incl Bootle, the town he was laughed out of last week). Never that fecund a patch for the far right in NW England but doubt we’ll see Yaxley-Lennon MEP

In Southport — a plum Tory marginal held by the Lib Dems until 2017 and now one of the flagstones on the path to a Labour majority — the Conservative vote has cratered to below seven per cent...

Notably, considering Labour outpolled Ukip in NW England in 2014, the Brexit Party are on course for a comfortable first place in Sefton.

Labour's collapse could (should) mean Corbyn will go.

It should, but I wouldn't bank on it sadly. Tom Watson is trying to draw blood though.

Polls on GE voting intentions show far more support for Labour and even for the Tories, with Faragists much lower

Both main parties will be watching how the polls change, especially any honeymoon bump for the new Tory leader,
before they decide about NC, GE

Here we go!

Where is all this being reported please?

I don’t think Labour are finished in Wales, I’d still probably vote for them in a GE but this has got to signal to them Corbyn Must go and sitting on the fence pandering to leave has been a disaster for them.

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
Prof Roger Scully describes what’s happening in Wales to Labour as a “political earthquake”. Party has topped every national poll in Wales since 1918 (bar the 2009 EU elex). Hearing Lab behind Brexit/Plaid and toe-to-toe with LDs

Corbyn will be as hard to shift as May
and Labour are nowhere near as ruthless about kicking out leaders who can't win elections

Bbc 1 or sky news

Labour's collapse could (should) mean Corbyn will go. And they need to embrace Remain now

I really am praying for this

Nick Eardley @nickeardleybbc

POLLS CLOSED. Here's what I'm hearing about the result in the UK.

The Brexit Party were aiming to win this election in terms of votes and seats. That looks a distinct possibility.

The Liberal Democrats are doing considerably better than many thought. Sources in the party think they're hoovering up votes in remain areas - I hear they think they could win in Islington, Jeremy Corbyn's back yard.

The two big parties are preparing for a kicking.

The Conservatives are expecting to lose a lot of seats - with voters switching to the Brexit Party and others.

Labour are preparing for a tough night too, with Brexiteers and remainers both deserting the party.

In Scotland, the SNP are officially saying 2 seats would be a good result but privately sources say not getting 3 would be a "disappointment". Brexit Party likely to get one, Lib Dems hoping one and sound optimistic. Labour and Tories both hoping for one but both sound nervous.

In Wales, sources predicting Brexit Party will win; big deal given Labour's historic dominance (It'd be second time Labour has failed to win a Wales-wide election in a century)

Plaid optimistic of finishing 2nd with one seat; sources think Labour 3rd and will take final seat.

I've been down south supporting Tranmere in their play-off this weekend so I've been away from politics for a while. Nice to get back to hear this:

Yaxley-Milkshakeface has conceded defeat in the NW.

Roger Awan-Scully@roger_scully

Just been on @SkyNews talking about the electoral earthquake that #EP2019 is seeing in Wales.

@WelshLabour on course for -at best - third place,

@WelshConserv possibly as bad as sixth.

Truly historic.

Red please let it be so in the West Mids.

I was worried for a sea of turqiose.

Everything crossed.

(Still worried though I am from Birmingham and had my optimism glass half emptied at birth )

I don't fancy the chances of Corbyn stepping down. He's every bit as intransigent as May.

I'M SO NERVOUS.

Francis Elliott@elliotttimes

Latest internal Tory predictions very grim.

"looking like 0 or 1 seats now".

Even south east looking bad, says source.

Results are coming in now

Rugby's #euelections2019 results declared:
Rugby BC @ rugbybc
Change UK - 1,075
Conservative - 3,330
Green Party - 3,140
Labour - 2,937
Lib Dems - 6,255
Brexit Party - 10,987
UKIP - 1,224
#wmeuro19

Whatever happens with the high vote for remain parties will count for nothing with the Conservatives. They will only look at their losses going to Brexit Party whatever that party gets and go even more full steam ahead hard Brexit no deal.

Let's hope the rest of the country rise against this.

DS is so excited, he loves watching election results.