Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

[RedToothBrush]

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

Alex Wickham@alexwickham
NEW: Lib Dem sources celebrating what they expect will be “huge wins” tonight

• they reckon they'll get between 10 and 17 MEPs (they currently have 1)
• say they’ve topped the poll in London
• and think they will rival the Brexit Party’s national rating

Lib Dem source says they think they'll get 2 seats in the North West, one West Midlands seat and at least 2 in London

They expect to win in Lambeth, Camden, Islington, Kensington – they think they're polling around 40% in places in London

Sources expecting "bonkers" results including Labour possibly even struggling in Southwark and Lewisham. One source says Labour on sub-16% in Norwich

LibDem HQ source: “Indications are good. Rumours of vegan sparkling wine being put in the fridges of Lib Dem homes across Britain.”

Change UK merge with LDs then. Chukka is Norwich isn't he?

Was what Heidi Allen was suggesting.

Right, we're settling in for the night. Thank god it's a bank holiday.

Starting off with Sky News; already slightly in love with Lewis Goodall (although am probably old enough to be his mother) for calling Farridge 'the ghost at the feast'

I know being superstitious is a load of old hokum ... but I wish the LDs weren't putting the mockers on this. Defeat has been snatched from the jaws of victory many a time on election night, not least that fateful day of 2016.

I am counting no chickens, but am treasuring optimism for the future fights, Peregina Thank you for what you've done in Oxford.

Impressed by your OU course. I think I'll do another MA whatever the brexit malarkey........

Election maps uk@electionmapsuk
Final EU Parliament Prediction (Based on gut feeling, rather than polls):

BXP: 29 (+29)
LDM: 16 (+15)
LAB: 10 (-10)
GRN: 7 (+4)
CON: 5 (-14)
SNP: 2 (=)
PLC: 1 (=)
SFN: 1 (=)
DUP: 1 (=)
ALL: 1 (+1)
CHUK: 0 (=)
UUP: 0 (-1)
UKIP: 0 (-24)

Changes w/ 2014

as good as a 50/50 remain/leave split

Pretzels. The turnout for the NW would suggest they are right for two seats there. I'd be more surprised if it wasn't now.

In fact has anyone got a hat?

This is part of a Masters Course - I got a bit behind with the elections, hence working late today. It will get done, it will get done.

I think once you are at the count, unless the results are neck and neck it becomes fairly easy to see who is likely to have won. That doesn't apply entirely to the Euro elections because of the d'Hondt system, but counting agents will be able to see the slips piling up in the baskets or not. At the last GE you could see immediately that UKIP had collapsed.

Once Farage decides to move on from the Brexit party, that too will collapse. I can't see strong women like Ann Widdicombe putting up with his nonsense for long.

France

RN-ENF (LePen) 23.3 %
LREM-ALDE (Macron's) 22.1%
LP/Jaunes-EFDD 0.7%

BUT
LePen is down nearly 2% from 2014
and
Macron's party didn't exist in 2014, so difficult to compare

Looks like 60% to Macron / centrist + all on his left
Only 24% total to the far right populists

I hope you're/ they're right - I'd just feel better if everyone maintained a sombre silence until it was all over.

Kevin Schofield@polhomeeditor
Also hearing that the Lib Dems have won in Holborn and St Pancras (Westminster seat held by one Sir Keir Starmer).

So is this it?

Has ukip died?!

I know there's the twattish turquise terror turtles replacing it but it's new, it has no manifesto other than brexit.

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
👀 Tory source tells me Brexit party hoovered up in Vote Leave areas (unsurprisingly) & expects Tories to come in w single figures (suggesting 5 or less MEPs from 19) 😳

What did they expect. They didn't even campaign!!!

Much as I want a Tory wipeout, looks like that would only happen if their votes go to BREX

So we probably needed the Tories to retain some votes & seats, to keep down Farage's score

Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall

Fascinating results coming from Ireland.

Exit poll shows a remarkable green surge. Up from 1.2% to 23%

Sinn Fein could be about to lose all their seats in the Republic. Could be left with a single seat- in Northern Ireland. Oh the irony.

Kevin Schofield@polhomeeditor
Labour source says the party has been "smashed" in Islington and Camden, and likely to come fourth in Bristol.

Hahaha

Looks like the Lib Dems have also won the three Barnet constituencies as both the Tories and Labour get hammered in outer London.

OH my.

I know there's the twattish turquise terror turtles replacing it but it's new, it has no manifesto other than brexit.

That doesn't matter to some. Brexit is like a religion or a cult to a very small and vocal minority. Nothing else matters to them.

I would be very happy to see the LDs come second to the party which isn't a party and will collapse as soon as Farage gets bored with it. Greens pushing the Tories into 5th place? Yes!

How do Sinn Fein count - are they Remain? I would expect so.

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
More Labour woe. The party almost always wins the national vote in Wales. But sampling (and this is only sampling, so health warning) suggests it is hovering between 3rd and 4th.

The big prize for Plaid would be taking 2nd, positioning themselves as a long term home for Remainer switchers and trying to emulate the SNP.

This is part of a Masters Course - I got a bit behind with the elections, hence working late today. It will get done, it will get done
It will get done. You're inspiring me......

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
People’s Vote man Tom Baldwin says polling suggests Labour losing votes to Brexit Party & LDs/Greens at ratio of 1:4. The argument the campaign will use to try to bounce Labour leadership to 2nd ref position #EUelections2019

"I can't see strong women like Ann Widdicombe putting up with his nonsense for long."

She's always been pretty bonkers,
but I agree she's strong in her bonkerdom !

Her very hardcore social conservativism caused her to switch many years ago from CofE to Catholic
And stay there

I see the switch from Tory to Faragist as being much the same sort of moving to the extreme
She's the type of fanatic to keep overlooking flaws like dodgy donations, no policies except No Deal Brexit , white supremacist US links etc

She'll stay very authoritarian right in her views, but Farage's autocracy might cause her to row and flounce

hagrid if the twattish turquise terror turtles stick with only a brexit policy and no branching out to tradtional family values or every man is a king in his home attitude I'll consider that a win.

Alex Wickham@alexwickham
More early indications from jubilant LibDems

- they are claiming Labour are 5th in Guildford on 4%
- they say in Lincoln Labour are 3rd
- they reckon in some Leave areas LDs are within a percentage point of the Brexit Party
- "the LD surge is the story of the night"

There will be no hat eating tonight.