Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

[RedToothBrush]

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

I have repeatedly told you people that you can't kill a zombie because they are already dead. So the Maybot is acting true to form.

I’d be surprised if the Tories gets anything close to the 10 seats.... I’m really not sure who out there has voted either Labour or Tory... I think they could well end up polling under 20% in total... we’ll see.

And then there's the absolute possibility they'll add Brexit, UKIP, Tory and Labour votes together and announce x% voted for Brexit

Interestingly, in my strong leave area, turnout was down from 2014. Which may mean that the leave voters couldn't be arsed, the remain voters couldn't be arsed, or nothing at all. We'll see!

I have repeatedly told you people that you can't kill a zombie because they are already dead.

They need a knife through the brain - but then there has to BE a brain for that to work!

Cheshire East 36.1% (32.6%) Esther McVey should be worried
Cheshire West and Chester 34.9% (31.2%)
Halton 27.1% (28.3%)
Warrington 35.6% (32.5%)
ALL these are VERY VERY GOOD news and what I was hoping for.

Bolton 34.4% (36.6%)
Bury 35.2% (36%)
Manchester 31.7 (30.5%)
Oldham 32.6% (34.9%)
Rochdale 30.4% (33.7%)
Salford 30.1% (29.9%)
Stockport 36.5% (36.2%)
Tameside 28.4% (32%)
Trafford 40.4% (39.4%)
Wigan 27.9% (28.5%)

Allerdale 33.8% (36%)
Barrow in Furness 26.5% (23.6%)
Carlisle 33.9% (34.2%)
Copeland 31.1% (34%)
Eden 38.7% (32.3%) FARMERS!
South Lakeland 45% (44.6%)

Blackburn with Darwen 36.7% (37.9%)
Blackpool 30.2% (30.1%)
Burnley 33.1% (32.8%)
Chorley 36.1% (39.5%)
Fylde 37% (35.2%)
Hyndburn 31.4% (37%)
Lancaster 36% (34%)
Pendle 34.4% (39.1%)
Preston 35.1% (34.4%)
Ribble Valley 36.9% (33%)
Rossendale 34.7% (35%)
South Ribble 35.6% (32.6%)
West Lancashire 34.8% (35.6%)
Wyre 34.7% (35.1%)

Those turnouts are going to throw a MASSIVE spanner in the works.

They look promising. Watch the NW tonight.

Happy with those.

Knowsley 23.6%
Liverpool 30%
Sefton 31.2%
St Helens 28.6%
Wirral 34.3%

James is sanguine.

@J_amesp
My European colleagues and I are very happy with the indications so far pointing to four months of risk mitigation work paying off. However, it’s a reflection upon the final result which counts. Just proud of the diverse efforts, from social media to fighting Disinfo.

Love the spreadsheet red and many thanks to the threaders who've helped make this EU election possible.

And then there's the absolute possibility they'll add Brexit, UKIP, Tory and Labour votes together and announce x% voted for Brexit 
That sort of swings both ways though as if the Britain Elects forecast is close, you can also say the electorate are swinging away from Brexit given the combined seats are 15 less than before. Lies, damn lies and statistics

{Dominic Raab has defended his claim that feminists are some of the most obnoxious bigots and that men are getting a raw deal, saying he does not want “double standards” in the debate on equality.}
From the Guardian.

I don't think he understands the concept of a 'charm offensive' or has simply removed the charm part.
I presume putting off half of those who might vote for him is a 'winning' tactic.

@RedToothBrush how are they throwing a massive spanner in the works? The numbers are pretty similar for 2014/2019. I've probably missed something as usual 🙄

ooo forgot liverpool

Knowsley 23.6% (28.7%) Has some of the most deprieved areas in NW
Liverpool 30% (30.6%)
Sefton 31.2% (34.5%) This surprises me a little... (Labour vote soft)
St Helens 28.6% (30.8%)
Wirral 34.3% (28.5%) Plastic Scousers! (Loves ya!)

Motherof3feminists it WHERE they are up and WHERE they are down.

I'm a sad case for demographics. Trust me, me and DH (who is a bigger Statto than me and an actual genuis for numbers) have just sat playing a game of Higher / Lower versus 2014.

We are both smiling.

Here's Hillingdon. 37.2% (36.6%)
(I wanted Boris to get a kicking. This isn't smelling of it).

Any news on east mids region?

Meanwhile in France... Le Pen declares victory over Macron

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/05/26/frances-le-pen-declares-victory-macron-high-stakes-european/?hootPostID=95d6d99f753977370527c18a66403319

I'm feeling better that you are happy red 😁

Any news on East of England?
These numbers not looking promising. (hope I can eat my words!). I predict that Brexit party voters came out in force. I can only hope I am wrong.

Oh I've just seen results for east mids and east of England regions at 11.30pm

UK: estimated declaration times

The following regions will declare at the below times, according to the Press Association.

East Midlands – 11.30pm Sunday (11.20pm in 2014)
Eastern – 11.30pm Sunday (10.30pm in 2014)
London – 2am Monday (3.06am in 2014)
North-east – 10.30am Sunday (10.15am in 2014)
North-west – 12.30am Monday (12.24am in 2014)
Scotland – 11am Monday (12.35pm in 2014). N.B. Seats allocation for Scotland will be known from overnight local counts but the Western Isles count taking place in the day delays the final declaration.
Wales – 12.01am Monday (11.38pm Sunday in 2014)
South-east – 1am Monday (12.46pm in 2014)
South-west – 11.00pm Sunday (11.38pm in 2014)
West Midlands – 12.01am Monday (12.30am in 2014)
Yorkshire & the Humber – 11pm Sunday (11.28pm in 2014)

#Greece FinMin Tsakalotos on exit polls: "Polls and statistics are like sausages. You do not want to know what they are made of"

West Dunbartonshire Council @WDCouncil
^The turnout figure for the West Dunbartonshire area has been confirmed as 35.68% with a total of 23,518 ballot papers being counted by our staff this evening.
With verification now complete, counting is underway.^

29.9% in 2014

There's a few in from Scotland now.

Edinburgh 50.2% (41.5%)
Highland 43.2% (36.2%)
Perth and Kinross 45.9% (38.9%)
Refrewshire 40.3% (37%)
Scottish Borders 43% (35.8%)
West Lothian 38.5 (34.1)

Times are also quoting turn out up in remain areas and down in leave!

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-heading-for-a-kicking-in-eu-polls-mcdonnell-admits-zzpr03gjh?shareToken=80166e519f5011bbf2f35b98c44f62c6

Sefton 31.2% (34.5%) This surprises me a little... (Labour vote soft)

Sefton includes Bootle. I was always surprised it voted Remain, tbh.

I was always surprised it voted Remain, tbh
Bootle did us proud recently.
@samyarwood89
All quiet now outside Manchester Central. Demonstrators have packed up and left. The man shouting Tommy chants has also gone. @MENnewsdesk

Have we any idea how 'tommy robinson' has fared? I hope he loses his deposit, if they do get lost.