Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

[RedToothBrush]

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

Nigella I saw that but a lot of regions don’t seem to have published there turn out figures including my area West Mids were there was a lot of BXP campaigning not as much from Remain. I had personally addressed propaganda from UKIP and BXP and a crappy Lab leaflet shoved through my door which looked ‘home made’ and not in a good way. Nothing from Greens Lib Dem or Change.

I fear the members of the remain message all thought the ‘other guy’ ‘was doing that area so a lack of a coherent voice really harmed.

Warwickshire (remain) is up Wyre Forest (leave) down. My worry is Birmingham, one of the biggest cities to vote leave and Brexiteers around me (rural & older) were out in force.

I just hope some of the Revoke petition signers felt strong enough to get out and vote. In Wyre Forest 6.7% signed the petition if a significant chunk got out and voted it could make a big difference in an election where turnout is only 31%. I appreciate I am massively clutching at straws here and I think a complete Brexit whitewash is on the cards.

Not sinister, just reduced to saying gibberish because telling the truth about Brexit is political suicide for a Tory

Ian Duntt@IanDunt*

'Helping to shape Europe from the outside'.

This is how Brexit would break otherwise sensible candidates, but forcing them to say the silliest gibberish.

meanwhile, over at the NHS - while we still have an NHS:

www.theguardian.com/society/2019/may/26/nhs-short-of-70000-nurses-bursaries-abolished

And of course, eliminating freedom of movement will help this situation

{leclerc I emphatically deny that Larry is a Tory !}
The occupant of No 10 is usually the Prime minister who is not necessarily a Tory. Maybe he has killed or eaten the white mice who we know are actually running the planet, hence the problems.

Away with the Unbelievers and their inconvenient truths !^

Away with an independent Civil Service ! (what stilll remains of it)

Of course, it's a refusal to Beleave that is the real problem 🤦🏻‍♀️

Liam Fox calls for clear out of Downing Street advisers who doubt Brexit

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/25/liam-fox-calls-clear-downing-street-advisers-doubt-brexit/

A Brexiteer Cabinet minister has called for a clearing out of Number 10 to replace any advisers still harbouring doubts over Britain leaving the European Union.

Liam Fox, the Secretary of State for International Trade, says the “opportunity” offered by Brexit can only be seized if those officials who are sceptical of its chances of success are removed from Downing Street.

Writing for The Telegraph, Dr Fox said Theresa May's successor should surround themselves with people who are not scared of cutting ties with the EU.

Adam Bienkov@AdamBienkov

Hammond suggests he would consider voting to bring down a Conservative government that pushed for a no-deal Brexit

Significant numbers of his colleagues feel the same

< I'll believe it, if they actually go through with this. Words are cheap.
Maybe he is fed up with this shit and ready to retire though >

Big would it not just be cheaper and easier to remove Liam Fox ?

Presume he has managed a good deal on drugs from Columbia, to go with his deal for Toblerones from Switzerland and,,,what else has his 'easiest deals ever' produced?

What we need to see is how well the Remain parties did as a percentage.

It will be impossible to tell because the Labour and Tory votes could be Remain or Leave.

Larry is an unelected bureaucat!

Once they have purged the educated 'Doubters of Brexit' from the Civil Service they could put them to work picking crops in the fields.

It really wouldn't surprise me.

I think you have to discount both Tory and Labour votes, although maybe split them half each.

I think the Labour ones are more likely to be Remain which tallies with the polls being higher for Remain now in a 2nd Ref.

Big that Curtice piece is certainly long and complicated but in a nutshell two main parties have managed to annoy both leave and remain supporters. We just haven’t quite work out who is the most annoyed at the moment.

Great thing on R4 at the moment covering the main candidates.

I am presuming the Labour and Tory votes are by people who think leaving with a deal is the best option.

I agree Rory appears to be the best of a bad bunch but people shouldn't be too quick to lionise him. He likes his comparison to Lawrence of Arabia and I suspect he is yet another modelling himself on a heroic figure from an earlier age. The Gentleman Explorer.

And his much vaunted military 'career' was just 5 months glorified work experience

During his gap year in 1991, he was commissioned ("short service limited commission") in the Black Watch for five months as second lieutenant (on probation) (Wikipedia)

Violet I just think they will add con & lab voters into the 80% who voted for Brexit like they did last time. They managed to twist a huge increase of Lib and green councillors into get on with Brexit so I expect this to be the same.

Anybody care to hazard a guess as to how well BXP is going to do weren’t there predictions flying round of 30 plus MEPs yesterday ?

I am presuming the Labour and Tory votes are by people who think leaving with a deal is the best option.

Not necessarily. Some people just vote for same party all their lives come what may.

Rory Stewart has the ugliest salt and pepper set I’ve ever set eyes on (was displayed prominently on his table while being interviewed in his kitchen) it was breaktakingly ugly to the point that I’d question the sanity of anyone who would give it house room. Other than that I think he’s is probably the best of a bad bunch but that may be because I know very little about him.

Everyone seems to be putting Rory on some pedestal, basically since he was focussed on The Last Leg.
And listing someone's accomplishments doesnt mean they are a Good Person.
Be careful what you wish for.

Some people just vote for same party all their lives come what may.

Wait until we get comparetheparty.com

If people put 1% of the effort into choosing their MP as they did their motor insurance, we'd live in a different - and possibly better - country.

Serious question for any US lurkers. Do US parties experience the same dumb loyalty as Tory and Labour in the UK ?

I'm predicting 30 seats for the BP.
Hopefully the Tories and labour will be humiliated.
After our summer holiday my no deal prep will renew apace.
Ffs.

Little If they start digging to deep into why people voted the way they did it would also mean admitting that not all leavers are the same or indeed everyone bases their vote on Leave v Reamian which does not fit their narrative of leave means leave. Details schmetails.

Support for BXP does at least give a gauge of how many people are up for a No deal in the absence of a second referendum.
.

Iam I’m hoping for less than 30 but fearing 33.

RHT important question is how many ovens ??