Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

[RedToothBrush]

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

Who the hell is Mark Harper?

I find Rory quite attractive as well. I like that painful seriousness

Meanwhile Hammond says:

"A Prime Minister who ignores Parliament cannot expect to survive very long."

Rory is so obviously streets ahead of the rest in accomplishments - especially at such a young age - ability, and character
Very impressive indeed

He is very energetic and his youth means he could stay leader for years, if politics allow.
Logically he could be the next leader but one or two, to lead the Tories after a wipeout, during a long climb back

In reality, I expect the party won't do patience or longterm thinking, so will keep dumping leaders who don't bring them back to power the following GE, frantically hunting for the quick fix.

Would an aging US actor really have been suitable to have played a Brit in his 20s, as he was during his major achievements ?
Or was Pitt ju st going to be the producer ?

I find Rory quite attractive

I just want to shout "EAT SOMETHING" at him. It's not like he doesn't have the teeth for it.

But on paper he looks the best candidate, although on twitter insiders are saying he has a short fuse.

Mind you, Stewart has already put his foot in it.

Jean-Claude PIRIS
‏*@piris*_jc

This is so kind of you! The 27 cannot wait to be helped, after Brexit, by the U.K. to change the EU from the outside. While you Brits will have a lot of work to do to get the U.K. out from the mess it will be in, I find that to be so generous and modest. 😇Jean-Claude PIRIS added,

Rory Stewart - No, I would not hold a 2nd referendum as it would be very dangerous... we need to help shape Europe from the outside not the inside. 🤔

I looked up Stewart's voting record. He is a true conservative. I like what he says but not convinced he'll walk a walk I like.

Still... He's a fresh face, believes in diplomacy, has ruled out No Deal, & the first MP to propose a lock-in to get this sorted. He supported Labour as a young man, so fairly centrist. The ERG will hate him for not being "flexible" (ie, doing what they tell him to).

Survation predicted accurately before, iirc

Anthony Wells Retweeted What UK Thinks: EU@whatukthinks

The @DailyMailUK's report of its final poll of #EP2019 vote intentions by @Survation

Farage on course to thrash Tories as Euro Election polls close

• and Boris could be heading to No10, Mail poll reveals

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7064837/Farage-course-thrash-Tories-Euro-Election-polls-close.html

•	<span class="italic">Farage is heading for a landslide victory in the European Parliament elections</span>  < yes, we've all accepted that >

•	They are the main findings of an opinion survey which concluded at midnight (before elections)

"A Prime Minister who ignores Parliament cannot expect to survive very long."

A week is a long time in politics so by this token May gave it a good try with her three years!

I would feel a smidgen of pity for May if her local Constituency party deselected her. I think that's one group she has been loyal to, but then they might be affected by the same mob who hijacked Dominic Grieve's constituency party.

we need to help shape Europe from the outside not the inside.

(Godwin alert)

Like Hitler, for example ?

No point expecting a Tory politician not to be a Tory

I would be delighted by a PM with competence and integrity
(I know, another 🦄 )

Yes, yes, Farage and his Brexshitters thrashing the Tories isn't news. What we need to see is how well the Remain parties did as a percentage.

we need to help shape Europe from the outside not the inside.

Are we going to "shape" the US from the outside as well ? How about China ?

peregrina Adding up from Survation, plus adding 1% for Plaid & NI Alliance party,
gives
27% Remain to 34% Brexit+UKIP

Still amazing to see only 35% for CON+LAB-and I've seeen polls with lower

Sigh and here's me thinking Rory ( shouldn't it be Ruairidh?) was the best of a bad job.

So he'd still stoke the hubris then? Maybe it's an inevitable part of the job spec.

Little Britain out to shape the world. Whilst sucking up to Trump who already thinks he shapes everyone.

My first impression of Rory Stewart is a slightly thinner Cliff Richard in the face ...

It doesn't really matter how terrible Rory is. He's still the best candidate by country mile ... a bit like Treeza was the best candidate in 2016 (and we all know how that turned out).

John Curtice: TWO NOTES ON THE PSEPHOLOGY OF THE EURO-ELECTIONS

https://electionsetc.com/2019/05/25/two-notes-on-the-psephology-of-the-euro-elections/

In so far as we are interested in a measure of the extent to which these European elections engaged the interest and participation of voters more than the contest five years ago,
attention should be focused on the change in turnout in those places where there was neither an local election in 2014 nor in 2019.

That is as much as six points.
The figure for Britain as a whole will underestimate the extent to which voters have been more engaged.
....
Overall, turnout appears to be up on average by four points in those areas where less than 55% voted Leave in 2016, compared with just half a point in those where fewer voted that way.

The effect is to double what was already a three-point difference between the level of support in the two types area in 2014 to a six-point one now.
....
But why is there a need for caution in interpreting the election results when they are unveiled on Sunday night?
< read on - it's complicated & detailled >

And since we're on the Brad Pitt theme, who remembers "Snatch" ... with Boris the Blade ("the sneaky Russian fucker ....").

Who else first saw Mr. Pitt as "Mr. Sex" in "Thelma and Louise" ? (Sadly, a film that can still speak volumes, nearly 30 years on. Like "The Accused" ).

No lets shape THE WHOLE WORLD! From the outside!

GB is moving to space! We're exiting the world.

No lets shape THE WHOLE WORLD! From the outside!

The more I read it, the more sinister it sounds. Honestly.

Misti May was know to have great flaws, even for a Tory, but we ignored them because the alternatives were even worse

Rory would be an outstanding Tory in any circumstances,
the best of the 2010 crop who were claimed to the best new intake for 30 years

His flaw - for those on the left - would be that he is a Tory,
which is of course inevitable for a Tory candidate !

... but almost certainly he will be eliminated in the very early rounds anyway
So no point in raising our hopes

He may become the next leader but one or two, while the Tories have been reduced to a small rump, out in the wilderness

Sigh and here's me thinking Rory ( shouldn't it be Ruairidh?) was the best of a bad job.

Rory is a shortened form of his given name - which is Roderick.

{His flaw - for those on the left - would be that he is a Tory,
which is of course inevitable for a Tory candidate !}

You could make a similar argument about Larry, his 'flaw' is that despite being a N0 10 resident he is not running the country.

leclerc I emphatically deny that Larry is a Tory !
Cats aren't dim .... although they do ruthlessly make us their slaves .... 🤔