Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

[RedToothBrush]

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

{it was breaktakingly ugly to the point that I’d question the sanity of anyone who would give it house room.}

Maybe his wife likes them, and as we all know 'she who has to be obeyed'.

DG. Last election I did do one of those online analysis tools as I am ‘politically promiscuous’ . I only did it for parties I could actually vote for in my constituency I was 1/3 lab 1/3 lib 1/3 con. Thankfully no purple. So it didn’t really help. Just ended up voting against the worst candidate for me which is what I usually do.

Too many ovens indicated lack of imagination and ability to handle complex scenarios.
Xmas dinner for 6 with all the trimmings done on a 2 burner hob would be a good test for candidates.

I guess the problem is there's far too much religion in politics. People seem to treat their political allegiances with the same devotion usually reserved for sky fairies.

I guess given the levels of hypocrisy in both, it's inevitable - they're very snug bedfellows.

Unfortunately, I'm not an anarchist (on account of having a brain) so am as stuck with it as the rest of us.

Too many ovens indicated lack of imagination and ability to handle complex scenarios.

Is clibanography even a thing ?

No ovens on show Basil was very 80s country pine though.

TisI With a last minute vegetarian and gluten intolerant guest thrown in to test ability to think quickly on the feet and how to cater to everyone’s needs with a nod to compromise.

DGR - yes

When we were in SA celebrating our 10th wedding anniversary, we met a very nice couple: one was a (thinking - yes they do exist ) Republican - he'd even been a Republican delegate at the electoral college - and his (male) partner, who was a Democrat. But they're not the point of the story as I suspect that the Republican would have cut off his right arm rather than vote for Trump (this was in 2008 though - so at the time the discussion was whether Clinton or Obama wold have got the Democrat nomination). We had some good and informed political discussions - with the Republican being quite pro-Clinton and was anti the incumbent Republican Bush. On the 2nd night, a Texan couple joined us: first time out of the US; he'd earned the trip as a reward for his sales performance. The topic veered round to politics again and the Texan (with his wife nodding) said, "I just go into the booth and whoever the Republican is, I just pull the lever for"

The 4 of us exchanged looks and changed the subject

Earlier on the same holiday, we'd overheard a Zimbabwean and an American discussing politics and the Zimbabwean said to the American, "I just don't understand Bush's support: I've never yet met an American who voted for Bush" to which the American replied, "Well, you wouldn't, because they don't leave the States"

There is an amazing percentage of Americans who have never left their home state, never mind own a passport.

The headlines, if the Faragists win the largest number of seats, will be that "the will of the people is No Deal"

The minor headline will be the total of the Remain parties % compared to Brex+UKIP

LAB stood on a soft Brexit, CON on gawd knows what but definitely Brexit,
which is why we kept saying do NOT vote for either - they'll be claimed as Brexit votes, as in the 2017 GE

Is there a summary of the candidates positions on Brexit?

Johnson, Raab, Leadsom, McVey all prepared to go no deal.

Hunt - can't take no deal off the table

Gove and Stewart - want to be best friends with both sides (like Corbyn)

Hancock - says he will get a new new deal.

Does that sound right?

There is an amazing percentage of Americans who have never left their home state, never mind own a passport.

When my friend got a gig in Houma, Louisiana, he popped to New Orleans (nearest big city) to check it out, and bought some postcards of Mardi Gras which featured some flesh. He then asked a colleague about postage, and the colleague said "Oh, just pop them into Nancy in the postroom". My friend did this, and Nancy was shocked at "what goes on in New Orleans". Turned out she'd never been (it was about 50 miles) to New Orleans.

Mind you, I worked with someone (and my left leg is up for grabs if he didn't vote UKIP) in Redditch whose point of pride was that they had never once been to "that London" at the age of 35. And this was despite living in Boston, Mass, for 2 years.

-that was 1990, btw. Whereas the gentleman not going to London was 2010 ...

If the BP get 30 seats could someone tell me roughly how many people will have voted for this option?

To be fair to Americans their country is very large, with a huge range of climate and scenery enclosed within it.
They routinely get very little annual leave, around two weeks is normal.
Flights are pretty expensive in the US.
If you live in an urban area you are likely to be near an international airport but if you are in a rural area you may be many hours away from one.
All of this combined is going to put some people off traveling outside their country. I am staying in North America all year but will have seen Everglades, tropical sea, northern forests, industrial cities and mountain wilderness.

To be fair to Americans their country is very large, with a huge range of climate and scenery enclosed within it.

Which is what a lot of things that work in the US are totally unsuitable for the UK. And vice versa. The US can sustain several energy companies. But does the UK really need tens of minnows churning inefficiency ? By the same token, a national broadcaster is almost an inevitability in a country of one time zone. But a nonsense in the US.

It's one reason why I don't support the fetishisation that anything the US does must be "better". Better suited to the US, maybe. But not intrinsically better.

To be honest, (and I am aware I'm betraying my damned unEnglishness here) I think the UK has sacrificed a lot in the name of faux "locality" anyway. Even taking my O levels, I couldn't really work out why we needed so many exam boards - unless the aim was to make marks impossible to compare either vertically or horizontally.

I agree with you dreich - although what surprises me is how few have even left their state - or gone to the next big town. It helps if you think of the States as like Europe (controversial, given the current circumstances ): each state is like a country, so there is no requirement to leave it. We don't assume people here are strange if they've never left their home country.

It's a bit sad though, as it's a great way to broaden your horizons - but who are we citizens of nowhere to judge?!

I'm just glad that I come from a comfortably middle class family who did travel. If a passport hadn't been essential and my dad an obsessive filer of official papers then I could easily have been affected by the Windrush scandal, as I arrived in the UK when I was 3, not only on one of my parents' passport but on a Commonwealth passport As it was, we obtained British passports as soon as we could.

Anyone who claims "he will get a new new deal" is either deliberately lying, or disgracefully ignorant at this stage

Either way, what will they do when the EU refuses renegotiation ?

The choices have not changed since May signed off the WA in September:
this WA / No Deal / Revoke

Extensions and / or PV would just end up with one of these

In the US ..They routinely get very little annual leave, around two weeks is normal.

But of course that wouldn't happen here...no reason at all to worry about this. It's not like our trade deals are in the hands of Liam Fox - a man who is so passionate about everything American that he set up his dodgy charity called Atlantic bridge. A think tank to promote UK and the US harmonisation. Whilst praising the US -by contrast he describes U.K. workplace rights as “unsustainable”.

Or Priti Patel pushing for there slashing the “burden” of employment legislation.

Or Boris who has also said that the Government should scrap the employment rights mirroring those in the EU social chapter.

Littlespaces - if you really want rough, with electorate of 45 million, 40% turnout, 1/3 of votes going to Brexit Party, that's 5 million voting for them. But I am sure others here can refine all three numbers in my calculation, and allow for the precise way that 30 seats would be achieved.

Apologies: 6 million using those figures.

Will Labour - after maybe additional Tory defections - have the votes for NC ?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/25/labour-no-confidence-motion-tory-pm-john-mcdonnell

Labour will try to force a vote of no confidence in the next prime minister as soon as they take office, John McDonnelll^ said
...
“because we believe any incoming prime minister in these circumstance should go to the country anyway and seek a mandate.”

Little too many ?

Ukip got 4.3m votes 2014 which was 27% and 24 seats with labour and Tory vote collapsed I guess he wouldn’t even have to get much more than that even with the slight increase in turnout in remain areas. It’s really hard to say without proper exit polls. I guess that’s why everyone is being quiet on the matter beyond saying they expect a convincing BXP win.

“because we believe any incoming prime minister in these circumstance should go to the country anyway and seek a mandate.”

The problem is they didn't believe it when Brown replaced Blair. Nor when Callaghan replaced Wilson, come to that. Goose/Gander.

Finding this website really good and measured.

Forgetting our history. The Brexit negotiations are not really about the UK and 27 other countries. They are about Britain’s long and troubled relationship with Ireland. And while Dublin was prepared for that, it took London completely by surprise

Part I: Forgetting Our History
members.tortoisemedia.com/2019/05/18/brexit-part-one/content.html

Part II: Unprepared
members.tortoisemedia.com/2019/05/18/brexit-part-2/content.html

Part III: Brussels Takes Control
members.tortoisemedia.com/2019/05/19/brexit-day-part-3/content.html

Part IV: May's Indecision
members.tortoisemedia.com/2019/05/19/brexit-part-4/content.html

Part V: Held at the Border
members.tortoisemedia.com/2019/05/25/brexit-part-5/content.html

Part VI: Things Fall Apart
members.tortoisemedia.com/2019/05/25/brexit-part-6/content.html?sig=qQNRyVUD13SL3GHE3PZP_BaQKSZTKVTShKe5nQslqFU

Anyone who claims "he will get a new new deal" is either deliberately lying, or disgracefully ignorant at this stage

yes, but they'll only do that to get the other tories to give them the post of Prime Minister.

a carefully chosen lying, deceitful, turncoat politician with no shame will dump his promises in the twinkling of an eye.

I give you...

Boris!