Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

[RedToothBrush]

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

watching Raab on Marr right now. He is further to the right than I even realised

The thing about the current extension lasting till October is on the EU side there is no need to do anything in a hurry.

It would serve the UK right if once the PM polka has finished, and whoever gets the gig trots off to Brussels to talk shite tough, they find all of the EU has gone on a nice summer holiday and no one will be back till late September (....Maggie May... ). In fact part of me hopes that was one of the considerations when it was offered.

May is nuts to want another couple of weeks as PM, including probably being berated by Trump for not doing Brexit his way.

She is powerless, an embarassment and should have quit right after her speech, to let Liddington start imm ediately as caretaker

Does she need the time to shred a ton of documents
or is she planning a last attempt tosalvage her place in history ?

red WHY ??

Prediction: if we leave on 31/10 without a deal it will be because the EU refuses an extension not because the U.K. doesn't ask for one.

I agree.

{It's going to be a 'comedy' of liars, bullshit tears and cringe inducing, toe curling, comments in which you will have to restrain yourself from hurling stuff at the tv.}

If hurling things is a possibility, try reading the comments on the Brexit articles in the DM. If they are representative of 'the British public' it will make you sink into total despair and want to abandon the UK. The will to throw things will dissipate.

“I’m a details guy,” Dominic Raab 😂😂

May is nuts to want another couple of weeks as PM, including probably being berated by Trump for not doing Brexit his way.

Indeed. There's also a risk that the Trumpster has a chance to undermine Mays replacement before they are even chosen. I see absolutely nothing in Trumps previous behaviour that suggests he wouldn't shout his mouth off and endorse Boris and poison the entire process even more than it is already. Although imagining all the other candidates trying to complain through our snowflake-savaging MSM means part of me would really like for that to happen.

"Prediction: if we leave on 31/10 without a deal it will be because the EU refuses an extension not because the U.K. doesn't ask for one."

Either is possible:

An ERG PM might ask for a long extension, because some have said this would give them the "opportunity to play hardball"

Since the PM will of course announce this cunning plan loudly in the media, 🤦🏻‍♀️ with much sabre-rattling on how the UK will wreck the EU,
that might convince the EU a further extension is not worth the risk.

Or they could keep giving short / schlongs, to keep the UK under some pressure, while playing out the time until a GE an a possible Labour govt

Agree May is nuts, she should have said “I did my best, you don’t understand the situation, the WA, has to be signed, now you sort it, goodbye” and left. No boasting about non-achievements and no hanging about. Lidington would make a good caretaker PM and manage to give Trunp the mildly interested, slightly puzzled and somewhat distant treatment he merits, I think.

John Rentoul @johnrentoul
Dominic Raab wants to "put the rocket boosters up the economy" #Marr

So Dom. Tell us the detailed plans on how to construct these magic rocket boosters. I mean, you are shit hot on details.

The Irish Border@BorderIrish

Text from US-Mexico Border.
Sounds like it’s heard Boris Johnson is favourite to be new PM

May must avoid worsening the situation for the next PM before he / she even starts

She will want the new PM to give her a peerage before the next GE (might not be possible if the GE is before Halloween though ! ) because ....

She’s been MP for Maidenhead since the 1997 GE, but it is one of the strongest pro-Remain seats in England
Her chance of winning it again is not great

However, she may just want to run away from politics and rock quietly in a corner for quite some time
( so why not quit immediately ?)

Thanks posters who replied regarding timings for results. I just heard on the radio that turnout was higher in remain areas!

We have Johnson, Raab, Gove and Hunt.

Then Rory Stewart:

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/i-ve-got-a-plan-says-cabinet-s-new-action-man-the-mp-whose-life-brad-pitt-wants-to-film-3spx77xp3
I’ve got a plan, says Rory Stewart — the MP whose life Brad Pitt wants to film
The newly promoted overseas aid secretary is in a hurry to get the Tories out of the doldrums

(From May)

Not strictly true. Pitt bought the rights to a biopic ten years ago, but shelved it.

What the article doesn't seem to say is the following (this taken from an online article from 2014 on Stewarts own website)

Rory Stewart’s career was deemed so colourful that Brad Pitt’s movie company was keen on making a film of the life of this latter-day TE Lawrence. But no longer.

“I think it’s not on now,” Stewart reveals. “They paid me for an option, but I think they are not going to make it.” And the reason? “I think being a Tory MP is not a very sexy end to a movie,” he smiles.

Now more Stewart of North Cumbria than Lawrence of Arabia, the MP for Penrith and the Borders is these days as happy to be focused on rural broadband as he is on the Middle East.

Yet although he may be seen by moviemakers as a ‘mere’ backbench MP, the new chairman of the Defence Select Committee is still as fascinated by the global as the local.

Won't someone think if the movie we could sell the UK off, if Rory becomes PM?

Like proper heroism stuff. And you can get around Rory's face with a Hollywood Stand In.

gets coat

Brad could make his movie if Rory made PM.

Brexiteers could have their hero.

Remainers could have their sanity.

The North could have a PM. The rural countryside and provisional towns could have a PM.

What's not to love?

Everyones a winner!

( so why not quit immediately ?)

Maybe simple vanity? Just wants to hang on long enough to beat Gordon Brown's time in office?

{“I think being a Tory MP is not a very sexy end to a movie,” }

I'm sure Hollywood could come up with something.
Alternatively Bollywood could come up with a cracking dance number.

Ah now wouldn't it be nice if both May and Johnson lost their seats at the next GE? A double Portillo moment. It looks tough with Maidenhead, but with the Tory melt down in the local Government elections, anything would now appear to be possible.

In fact thinking about it, Rory Stewart v Boris Johnson would be an interesting face off.

Stewart literally is everything Johnson wants to be and frames his image on, but absolutely isn't.

Stewart hard working, diligent and has a 'heroic' background.

The irony is bitter.

May won't stand again.

I wonder if George is making enquiries in Maidenhead....

May said that she would continue as MP for Maidenhead. Mind you Cameron was going to stay on, and didn't and May wasn't going to call a General Election, told us so seven times, then did and lost, but not quite. So who knows?

John Rentoul @johnrentoul
Updated numbers of Tory MPs publicly backing candidates from @GuidoFawkes
Michael Gove 18
Dominic Raab 15
Boris Johnson 14
Jeremy Hunt 13
Sajid Javid 8
Matt Hancock 6
Esther McVey 5
Mark Harper 4
Andrea Leadsom 2

Nicholas Beale @ starcourse
Given that @RoryStewartUK has such an enormously impressive CV how come nobody has yet publicly backed him?

Paul Bibby @ paul63b
Far too competent and considerate to ever appeal to the average or, indeed, more extreme Tory MP.

May just doesn't know she's not going to continue as MP for Maidenhead yet.

I would not be surprised if the local associations deselected her!

I find Rory quite attractive

There is apparently a story about Rory and a married lover. Who he jilted...

So he must have some appeal.

Not my cup of tea.

I think the words 'Tory mp' are a turn off though, so who am I to judge?