Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 14th November 2021

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@Wilma55

The event was 20th November so could well have spread

BBC reported that the event (a private event) was on the 20th and the cases who caught it there tested on the 23rd. That seems very quick to me - isn't the usual incubation period more like 5-6 days? Is it possible Omicron's is shorter? Or that these first cases are the first among many?

Hmm yes. That would tie in with the greater transmissibility theory, wouldn’t it?

I think the latest delta data said 4.5 days didn’t it

@sirfredfredgeorge - The article that mentioned under 2s being admitted to hospital (linked to yesterday) suggested that nervousness about Omicron might have been behind more hospital admissions for milder cases, which would presumably lead to shorter stays. Though it could equally well be something to do with differences in data definitions around what counts as an admission or an inpatient between the UK and SA

Some actual data from Israel:

www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/covid-1st-data-about-vaccine-efficacy-against-omicron-expected-tuesday-687392

@bordermidgebite

All the Scottish cases are from a single event

I don’t understand this, they also say not linked to travel so where has it come from. Or is it just that we have only just become aware of the variant so have only just been able to identify it?

According to the guardian:
The new cases include six in London – one each in Haringey, Sutton, Camden, and Westminster, and two in Barnet – and one in Liverpool, and one in north Norfolk.
www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/30/omicron-more-cases-found-in-uk

Delta incubation period is around 4 days. The wild type was 6 days:

virological.org/t/viral-infection-and-transmission-in-a-large-well-traced-outbreak-caused-by-the-delta-sars-cov-2-variant/724

If Omicron is down to 3 days, this might support the hypothesis of higher viral, higher transmissibility and higher virulence for non-vaccinated/non-infected population.,

However if we also believe in the hypothesis regarding the trade off between immune escape features and transmissibility, it may be good news for vaccine effectiveness (as suggested by the very preliminary/non-validated Israeli data).

Tuesday night's 2021 v 2020 comparison for health metrics in England. 7 day average in all instances, deaths by date of death with a week's lag applied.

Regional graphs to follow

This is England admissions

hospitalisations

deaths within 28 days by date of death

and for complete context seven day average for cases in England by spec date.

[quote JanglyBeads]Some actual data from Israel:

www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/covid-1st-data-about-vaccine-efficacy-against-omicron-expected-tuesday-687392[/quote]
That's really interesting, and pretty encouraging, data, albeit very preliminary. Suggests good news for the Pfizer- vaccinated - only a slight drop in efficacy against either infection or serious disease - less than the difference between Pfizer and AZ - so if true this would mean Pfizer still works better against Omicron than AZ does against Delta. I presume there's not so much data on AZ as it wasn't used so much in South Africa (because less good against beta wasn't it?)

On the negative side, the article suggests that unvaccinated people have 2.4 times the chance of serious illness - which is a lot. Would sggest we need to get kids vaccinated asap, and also appeal to unvaccinated adults urgently.

English NHS regions admissions - full year

and from Aug-Dec

England NHS regions hospitalisations full year

Aug-Dec

Just heard on BBC World Service that new variant is already in Australia.

I hope you don’t mind the Q here: Is anyone able to recommend an intelligent and reliable covid commentary on a podcast/video that I can listen to when I’m cooking to catch up on where things are here and internationally?

I’m increasingly disenchanted with the usual news channels. Thanks!

Not quite what you’re asking for, but I’m currently in this Live Twitter discussion with FT science people. If anyone wants to join:

twitter.com/i/spaces/1vAGRkjjMgyJl

(I’m only listening of course! You can post questions though.)

Sorry meant to say it’s on what we know currently about omicron

@Lelivre

I hope you don’t mind the Q here: Is anyone able to recommend an intelligent and reliable covid commentary on a podcast/video that I can listen to when I’m cooking to catch up on where things are here and internationally?

I’m increasingly disenchanted with the usual news channels. Thanks!

Independent SAGE do one on Fridays. It's usually very up to the minute with at least one globally renowned expert on it.

twitter.com/independentsage/status/1464225108579393537?s=21

Here is Christina Pagel with data and analysis of omicron in SA:

twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1466077814306844675?s=21

What’s happened to todays data or have they changed the times they publish?