Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 14th November 2021

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

have not looked specifically at London sirfred but the overall England increase is very much school age driven

Thanks, so that's a bit more positive for me, that would fit a hypothesis to me that there is still high protection in the general population, and a wider country mixing from half term (as kids travel to grandparents/holiday etc.) has re-seeded the areas - which wouldn't give as much potential for further increases as if it was from waning.

Of course could be other reasons, and I'm looking on a positive side.

It is not positive for all those who attend or work in a school, or for their families.

lonelyplanet Chris Whitty decided everyone would be exposed with the low efficacy vaccines and was supported without dissent by almost everyone - and so far, that's just how it's progressing - if it grown in London not in children but in the vaccinated groups that would've been significantly more concerning, as it would've been about re-introduction into groups who should've had considerably more protection - which would've indicated even worse vaccine performance or quicker immunity fading in the infected but not vaccinated.

But I do agree, anyone who is still trying to avoid exposure, is certainly being done a disservice by dragging things out, but then I'm not convinced how practical avoiding exposure was ever going to be practical - although my family have never had a reason to test or isolate - although did have symptoms in March 2020 pre-testing availability after possible exposure.

I'm in an area which is decreasing. In the local areas around me we had huge case numbers- 1400 in 100,000, without a doubt driven by schools, starting at secondary and then filtering down through the ages through siblings. These areas are now absolutely plummeting so hopefully it's peaked.

Just a AF . Will read back when the insomnia kicks in

Have just worked out what regulus meant by an “AF .”!

Jangly I haven't 🤔

.

@JanglyBeads

Have just worked out what regulus meant by an “AF .”!

The insomnia kicked in but had nothing to add, boys graphs were excellent as always.

AF stand for the poster known as AnyFucker… does that help?

Anyway, what do we think about the stats and analysis in the News Conference?

I will put up some comparative health metric graphs for England tomorrow, avoiding today given the way deaths get reported through.

But just a a quick this year v last year comparison based on the 7 day average.

Hospital Admissions 771 now vs 1537 at the same point last year.

Number in hospital 6837 vs 12943

Deaths within 28 days by date of death (with a week’s lag applied) 125 v 309.

The November 2020 lockdown was just starting to take effect at about this point for Admissions which peaked in terms of seven day average at 1547 on 14th November 2020, before dropping back to 1183 by 2nd December. By New Years Eve they stood at 2557.

Number in hospital last year carried on rising until 24th November seven day average of 14414, then dipped back a little to 13196 on 7th December. By New Years Eve stood at 20,426.

Deaths within 28 days by date reported initially peaked at 404 on 24th November, then fell back to 365 on 7th December, bumped along around the 400 mark for a couple of weeks, before going from 401 on 19th December to 589 by 31st.

All then got a whole lot worse by mid to third week of January.

Confirmed cases currently, with a three day lag, at a seven day average of 30127 compared with 22,082 at same point last year. However strip out LFTs and the like for like pure PCR figure is much closer at 23,767.

Ah, AnyFucker! Of course. 🤦‍♀️

@PussyCatEatingPigsInBlankets

Thank you boys Were the parsnips ok?

Parsnips..........spectacular!!!

boys best news today!

Roast parmesan parsnips sound divine.
I may have to cook them at some point this week

Thread on the East Midlands and herd immunity.
mobile.twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1459934046566420491

certainly a massive jump in Charnwood, 232 cases on Monday 8th (125 on the 1st) and an overall rate much higher than the lead in to school half term. As the twitter thread indicates massively driven by schools.

In contrast Loughborough Uni, the town of Loughborough being in Charnwood, reported 33 cases amongst staff and students in the week to 14th November. Out of c.4,000 staff and 18,000 students.

www.lboro.ac.uk/internal/coronavirus/covid-19-cases/ Could not see if the Uni gives a longer time series for tests and cases, or just provides a single week at a time.

Different picture in neighbouring North West Leicestershire, a much less marked recent upturn.

Someone mentioned about a week ago that Torridge was one of the areas that had the most cases of the new variant of delta. It was just announced on our local news that Torridge has the highest rates of (any type of) covid in the UK. I’m presuming that isn’t a coincidence.

As the twitter thread indicates massively driven by schools

The thing the twitter thread ignores is how it's within schools, dismissing options. One hypothesis for a dip at half term is everyone stops testing and the dip is entirely artificial before half term, and caused by reduced contacts in half term. But the "herd immunity" people can also fit that data without dropping testing.

In a situation with few mitigations, and with significant spread in schools, then as soon as a school had a few cases of covid they'd all become infected over a short time. This would only start happening in individual schools once something caused cases to arrive in it. In term time, mixing of kids outside of their normal groups is limited, so getting those first few cases is slower, in a holiday where everyone goes off to visit, does different things etc. Makes introduction more likely.

No idea if it's reasonable (although the hypothesis at least still provides a way for it to both spread rapidly in schools, and there to be school children available to infect) but I'd like to see some hypothesises posted that aren't "kids don't test/follow rules", "people ignore the rules for holidays" etc.

To actually find data that would help us identify it, we'd need school level data in areas.

Schools Infection Survey sirfred? Not quite sure what you mean.

Yes I wonder if that 10% higher infectivity with the delta sub variant needs to be taken more notice of - and is perhaps an under estimate?

(Not sure if estimate is quite the term I want there.)

christmas - I'm not sure why Torridge is now the highest in England but it could be linked to it being one of the areas where the booster stocks are scarce.

I was sent a text a few weeks ago by GP to call and book but when I did they apologized and said they didn't have the boosters they needed. My 2nd jab was beginning of May.

Went online to book and was offered Exeter, quite a distance away from Torridge with poor transport and roads.

Schools infection doesn't say that I can see, sort of info you'd need is how the split of cases were in schools in a region.

ie imagine a place with 4 secondary schools, there's some mixing between the schools of course (kids meeting outside school in other activities) but the number of contacts is more limited compared to in school.

If covid gets into three schools and reaches "herd immunity" levels where it then starts falling in the stats, there would actually still be another entire school that had had very little covid, cases would've dropped despite this. Then something caused the case to arrive in the last school and you'd see a rapid rise in cases in the age group despite "herd immunity" being previously reported.

I think it's reasonable to suggest that half term is a reason for it to enter a new environment - 'cos you mix with different.

School infection reports I've seen only say number of kids overall, rather than per school. I think it's really valuable indicators to future spread if individual schools have reported low or high numbers of cases, I don't believe the distribution is going to be the same percentage per school - it doesn't make sense.

Since it's been nearly two years there will have be some changes in each school population in that time. Staff changes, families moving, new pupils, some entering primary & others moving onto secondary etc. It's not always a static group.

Gosh. Imagine if someone had taken the idea that children in schools can get infected and spread infection early on in the pandemic, or even more recently (when it became evident to anyone who was paying attention) and diligently collected relevant information…