Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 14th November 2021

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@Bizawit it's very late and no message to say why / when

48,374 and 171

Big jump in cases. Doesn't feel good

@1990butgrey

Big jump in cases. Doesn't feel good

It’s quite strange, up nearly 10k on yesterday?

twitter.com/trvrb/status/1466076761427304453?s=21

“Trevor Bedford -
Following up here with speculative estimates of the rate of spread of Omicron and a stab at how to apportion this rapid rate of spread between intrinsic transmissibility and immune escape.”

I don’t understand more than 10% of this but get the general idea (I think!)

BanditoShipman, it's not meaningful to compare with the day before. (Newspapers and TV have hopefully stopped doing this now too!). Instead compare with the same day last week. Because the amount of testing carried out is different depending on the day of the week.

It was 43k last Wednesday so up about 12% today.

@manolantern still a big jump though!

I think the delay was the new addition of a metric Virus tests by specimen date added.

There have been similar jumps before - it could be that more sequencing is being done to look at PCR tests so the previous days lowered numbers were artificially lowered (if that makes sense)

Generally people on this thread were comparing the current day with 1 week before- trying to spot a trend in cases coming down.

When cases seemed to be trickling back up, recently, that stopped - which was a bit of a shame as it had been quite helpful!

Still a drop in rate of growth though - was 1% yesterday, now 0.7%

[quote 1990butgrey]@manolantern still a big jump though![/quote]
True! Though it's not unprecedented. The last time cases were so high on a Wednesday was 20th October when there were 49,139 new cases and 179 new deaths reported.

Wednesday used to be a 'bumper' day but recently it seems Thursdays and Fridays are also very high!

I'm not worried yet. Cases by specimen date are still tracking down slightly on last week, looks like test results delay due to extra genome testing efforts to me, even with 5 days of catch-up they don't look like they will be tracking much above last week, if at all.

Specimen date graph

@MRex ok thank you! Is that the bit where some of the graph is greyed out?

Cross post!

In terms of spec dates for cases in England just for the past few days.

Back end of last week marginal increase.

Saturday down 5% on equivalent the previous week.

Sunday up 6.5% after three days reporting

Monday up 11.7% after second day

Tuesday first day of reporting up by almost the same percentage 11.6%

Hospital admissions are mixed across different regions. 12% up in London. Drops in other areas particularly in the North.
mobile.twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1466087917428871175

Why are London's cases shooting up? Any ideas, I can only think of the rugby 🏉

@1990butgrey

Big jump in cases. Doesn't feel good

It's always a higher number on a Wednesday. The thing to look at is that the rate of growth in the 7 day average is now less than 1%, and its starting to look like we've reached the top of the back to school peak. Fingers crossed we should see a negative rate of growth over the next couple days

@boys3

In terms of spec dates for cases in England just for the past few days.

Back end of last week marginal increase.

Saturday down 5% on equivalent the previous week.

Sunday up 6.5% after three days reporting

Monday up 11.7% after second day

Tuesday first day of reporting up by almost the same percentage 11.6%

Oh dear- so there was no actual drop in cases? The apparent falls over the last few days were just due to reporting delays?

@manolantern

BanditoShipman, it's not meaningful to compare with the day before. (Newspapers and TV have hopefully stopped doing this now too!). Instead compare with the same day last week. Because the amount of testing carried out is different depending on the day of the week.

It was 43k last Wednesday so up about 12% today.

True, normally I compare with week before but I got a bit over excited at such a large jump!!

From the s-gene dropout on the ONS survey data, omicron may have been here a while:
mobile.twitter.com/ronnytodgers/status/1466077934045831179

@1990butgrey

Wednesday used to be a 'bumper' day but recently it seems Thursdays and Fridays are also very high!

Thursdays possibly high as it’s the day when school tests would be reported (in this area at least tests are Sundays and Wednesdays for schools)

I knew there was S gene drop out for months, but I thought it had been (and still was) attributed to other variants, like the AY.4.2 one, which grew in the SW?
( inews.co.uk/news/politics/covid-new-delta-variant-child-more-infectious-strain-cases-1256694 )