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Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 14th November 2021

999 replies

boys3 · 14/11/2021 17:51

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
240
Piggywaspushed · 05/12/2021 13:12

She was asked after JVT gave his answer what she would say , in an attempt to 'coach' her. - she said she would say the same as JVT, who had already ruffled feathers. She has been very diplomatic about why she was dropped.

news.sky.com/story/chief-nurse-ruth-may-confirms-she-was-dropped-from-number-10-briefing-amid-dominic-cummings-row-12032755

MRex · 05/12/2021 13:13

[quote Piggywaspushed]Lots of data in the ever wonderful Sarah Rasmussen's thread here. Some explanations towards the end!

twitter.com/SarahDRasmussen/status/1467225412975710213[/quote]
Sarah Rasmussen is indeed great. I don't like those conclusions though, R12 is closer to measles!!

Piggywaspushed · 05/12/2021 13:20

Yes, I'm waiting for her to follow that bit up! I think it says R4 somewhere else?

Firefliess · 05/12/2021 13:34

[quote Piggywaspushed]Lots of data in the ever wonderful Sarah Rasmussen's thread here. Some explanations towards the end!

twitter.com/SarahDRasmussen/status/1467225412975710213[/quote]
Thanks for that - it's very good. (She always is) It's quite technical but she seems to conclude that if Omicron is transmitting 3-4 times faster than Delta in SA. The UK data she concedes is tricky because we don't know how many cases are imported (and background fluctuations in s gene dropout create additional noise) but looks broadly similar. If that pans out it's a scary rate of increase.

MRex · 05/12/2021 13:36

Wiki is sometimes quite useful: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number.
Delta variant at 5-8, plus 4 gives 9-12. Chickenpox, mumps, measles territory. Thinking a bit more, surely anything above Delta 5-8 is at that high transmission "walk through room and everyone gets it" level of infection. I feel a bit slow realising it but even with nice low vaccinated transmission levels (and we don't know if we have this or not), all under 12s will still catch it really quickly.

Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 14th November 2021
sirfredfredgeorge · 05/12/2021 13:38

R12 is closer to measles

I don't see there's any working conclusion that it's R12 though, Rt doesn't say anything about R0, just about different current transmission rates, so the measures in the population that reduce Delta to Rt of ~1 in the UK and Rt of ~

MRex · 05/12/2021 13:45

That's all true @sirfredfredgeorge, and increased targeted testing has always yielded early additional cases, which will impact cases everywhere right now. The direction does appear to be clearly up however, which is bad even if it's significantly weakened.

wintertravel1980 · 05/12/2021 14:51

What is it with all the "in feminam" attacks on brilliant women academics?

“Brilliant” is an emotional word.

I have absolutely no doubt that all iSAGE members are highly competent. My observation is that many of them (women and men) got so emotionally invested into the Covid topic that they have lost the ability to think critically, realise when they were wrong and learn from mistakes. A similar example on an opposite end of the spectrum would be Michael Levitt. The guy is a Nobel prize winner so he is certainly competent (brilliant?) in his field. However his views on Covid have been completely distorted by his own convictions and beliefs. It is sad to see how delusional people can get.

Re: feminism - I still remember the twitter soap opera when two “brilliant female scientists” (Gurdasani/Hyde) tried to discredit/dox a young Moderna researcher (sailorrooscout/Chise) playing the gender/race card not realising that Chise is in fact (i) female and (ii) bi-racial.

borntobequiet · 05/12/2021 15:00

I do think it's ironic though that some scientists who you would expect to be very "on board" with mental health issues, are themselves very cavalier with the mental health of their Twitter followers, by retweeting spurious and alarmist accounts.

I don’t think scientists on Twitter are in any way responsible for the mental health of their followers, and one person’s spurious and alarmist may well be another person’s valid and cautionary.

wintertravel1980 · 05/12/2021 15:42

Re Omicron transmission advantage - I do not think any of the modellers have had an opportunity/time to assess/quantify the impact of the shorter incubations period (3 days vs 4 days?). It can be significant to the R0/R(t) estimates (in a positive way) and will further re-iterate benefits of vaccinations/boosting. One of the branches in the Sarah Rasmussen’s thread discusses this point:

twitter.com/glbabbington/status/1467270657067012096

manolantern · 05/12/2021 15:52

Suggestion here that Omicron might be dominant in the UK by Christmas:

twitter.com/timcolbourn/status/1467520070125600769

PussyCatEatingPigsInBlankets · 05/12/2021 16:11

43,992 cases and sadly a further 54 deaths.

seems high for a Sunday?

amicissimma · 05/12/2021 16:18

@JanglyBeads

So, do we all agree that John Burn Murdoch is reliable?

(I like him!)

Well, I may have missed some context, but John Burn Murdoch tweets " Tshwane report found that 70% of patients on oxy were due to Covid. "

Yet the Tshwane omicron profile states (2nd table down) "patients on oxygen for Covid 21%"

So I would find it helpful if he would explain what has lead him to make his statement.

weddingguesttbc · 05/12/2021 16:19

@PussyCatEatingPigsInBlankets ok wondering if today's Scotland figures include some from yesterday too?

kalidasa · 05/12/2021 16:24

@amicissimma I think he means that of patients on oxygen, 70% needed it because of Covid (rather than other reasons); but of all Covid admissions, only 21% needed oxygen.

Firefliess · 05/12/2021 16:31

I think those are quite compatible stats though - eg if you had 30 patients on oxygen of whom 21 had covid, that's 70% of oxygen patients with covid. But if there were a total of 100 patients with covid in the hospital altogether, then 21% of them are on oxygen. Both figures matter, depending whether you're asking "how many of the covid hospital patients are very ill?" (only 21% of them) Or "does this hospital have enough oxygen capacity?" (possibly not if it's inflexible and 70% of it currently taken up with covid patients)

sirfredfredgeorge · 05/12/2021 16:41

They're not compatible though Fireflies.

We know there are 9 patients on Oxygen 'cos of covid, if that's 70% then that means there are only 12-13 patients on Oxygen, however the table says there are at least 14 ??

sirfredfredgeorge · 05/12/2021 16:42

(expressing percentages with such low numbers is misleading statistics in all cases I'd say, the error margins must of necessity be so high, particularly any percentages to two significant figures)

amicissimma · 05/12/2021 16:47

This is my issue. It's not clear. Why does he not say whether he is referring to % of Covid patients on oxygen, or % of oxygen patients having Covid?

herecomesthsun · 05/12/2021 16:59

@wintertravel1980

What is it with all the "in feminam" attacks on brilliant women academics?

“Brilliant” is an emotional word.

I have absolutely no doubt that all iSAGE members are highly competent. My observation is that many of them (women and men) got so emotionally invested into the Covid topic that they have lost the ability to think critically, realise when they were wrong and learn from mistakes. A similar example on an opposite end of the spectrum would be Michael Levitt. The guy is a Nobel prize winner so he is certainly competent (brilliant?) in his field. However his views on Covid have been completely distorted by his own convictions and beliefs. It is sad to see how delusional people can get.

Re: feminism - I still remember the twitter soap opera when two “brilliant female scientists” (Gurdasani/Hyde) tried to discredit/dox a young Moderna researcher (sailorrooscout/Chise) playing the gender/race card not realising that Chise is in fact (i) female and (ii) bi-racial.

Okay, women academics of the calibre to have tenured posts in medical/health sciences/mathethematical science at Oxford or UCH, which are world renowned establishments, who have published widely and who also are quite famous in their fields?

You can insert another adjective/s if you like. "extremely well respected and successful" maybe?

ISage have been right about a lot of things, for example that we were doing the wrong thing in deliberately exposing our children to covid without putting more mitigations in schools.

I'm afraid I don't know anything about either Michael Levitt or the twitter soap opera (I don't get much involved in arguments on twitter)

The word delusional means something quite specific and not just that someone has views with which we disagree, by the way.

containsnuts · 05/12/2021 17:00

It might be intentionally vague to protect the privacy of the patients. With such small numbers it's maybe identifying to be more specific about their reason for admission/covid status etc especially when the whole world is watching.

containsnuts · 05/12/2021 17:05

@containsnuts

It might be intentionally vague to protect the privacy of the patients. With such small numbers it's maybe identifying to be more specific about their reason for admission/covid status etc especially when the whole world is watching.
Was replying to @amicissimma
JanglyBeads · 05/12/2021 17:18

Oliver Johnson doing some calculations which show why omicron is bad news for the UK, even if it produces “milder” symptoms in general:

twitter.com/bristoliver/status/1465803772609794051?s=21

JanglyBeads · 05/12/2021 17:23

As I haven’t seen @boys3 around today, and I realised we were about to run out of thread, I thought I’d better create the next one so that I could link in the 1000th post:

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4418929-Data-Stats-and-Daily-Numbers-started-5-December-2021?

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