Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 14th November 2021

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@sirfredfredgeorge

Piggy this is the data thread, show me the data that makes it worrying, and not words, words can be in other threads. If there's data to be worried about, we should be able to point to it surely?

Ermmm.. perhaps the school's data jan posted. Unless you re after specific Omicron data.

The scientists have seen data. They have seen the protein spikes. They are widely using words such as 'worrying' to reflect on the data but also the variant's specifics. Scientists do have command of language too. They don't just spout numbers. It's not 'us' using those words; it's 'them'.

marsha the restrictions/ protections/measures have been put in place by multiple governments without the hard data. Sometimes people don't wait.

I, and others, respond to the human being we are presented with. Non verbal signals tell a lot more truth than words, especially in things touched by politics.

They are not certain, we all agree on that, but they obviously think the probabilities are pretty high.

Of course and I’m not arguing otherwise

What I am saying is there is no certainty yet.

People looking at how people look / introduction of measures won’t get that certainty.

We have to wait for two to three weeks to get it. It makes sense to introduce measures whilst waiting but that’s it. It could be bad or ok and data will confirm either.

I suppose what we’re witnessing is a large reminder that sometimes medical science, particularly in an emergency, has to proceed without good data.

Well here’s some data relating to the transmissibility of omicron:

Cases have increased by 404% week on week

twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1465728934763536388?s=21

(Obviously all of those needn’t be omicron). That’s the cases they’ve found, of course.

There is a big difference between JVT’s messaging and - say - hysterical tweets from Eric Ding (and a few other similarly minded scientists - all Covid twitter users know their names).

JVT was always balanced and in the past when he kept re-iterating that the “pandemic is not over”, he actually made it clear he was less worried about Delta. His top concerns were (i) new variant or (ii) virulent flu. It looks like we may be dealing with the first one of those challenges.

Case numbers for today are being delays. Hospitalisation data for England is out and I do have questions about today’s figures. The number of patients in hospitals has gone up on yesterday (6,123 vs 6,094) which rarely happens between Mon and Tue. Normally Tue numbers are lower because of discharges.

It may be a one off glitch but it is worth monitoring.

Don't forget the terrible weather at the weekend may have an impact on todays figures. I'd include hospitalisation, tbh, as there were some areas pretty much completely unreachable.

Yes, thanks, a very good point about the weather. The regions that have gone up the most are North East & Yorkshire (which would make sense) and MIdlands.

Here is JVT confirming the unknowns - as ever he is clear and balanced

Transmissibility is still an unknown

Plus severity and vaccine evasion

m.youtube.com/watch?v=OI26gA6kZkA

Thanks, Marsha. As always, JVT is clear and to the point.

Missing data question: cog-uk-me was updating every day, but hasn't been updated since the weekend, does anyone know why? It's making me nervous.

39,716 cases today. Slightly down on last week.

Unsure if we'll still see a drop in tomorrow'a case numbers.

The other thing I guess that is unknown is how Omicron and Delta will work together. South Africa had low levels of Delta we have, well fairly high and consistent levels so that is also something that is unknown

Good thread by Michael Mina on how the media is representing omicron:

twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1465686060411801614?s=21

The demeanour thread not totally convinced I have to admit.

However from a data perspective the seven day average for deaths within 28 days by date of death in England, and calculating this only up to 22nd November has dropped just below 100. Now there may be a few more to feed through, and we should not in anyway minimise the loss of each and every one to their loved ones, however a welcome direction of travel still. Particularly as the figure at the start of November was 137.

These threads used to be noted for a calm analysis of the data.

1. Omicron has a lot of mutations.

1. Some of these mutations have been seen in other variants and have been associated with being more transmissable and with partial vaccine evasion (my emphasis)

1. Anything that might spread faster and evade immunity is worrying.

1. There isnt yet enough data to say whether we do need to worry and there wont be for some weeks.

1. The NHS is already in crisis, it cant cope if the worries prove accurate. It could also do without a flu epidemic as other pressures are making this a very bad winter.

1. Masking up reduces covid transmission and eliminated flu last year.

1. Boosters are reducing hospital admissions.

6 and 7 help 5, whatever they may do for Opticron.

@boys3

The demeanour thread not totally convinced I have to admit.

However from a data perspective the seven day average for deaths within 28 days by date of death in England, and calculating this only up to 22nd November has dropped just below 100. Now there may be a few more to feed through, and we should not in anyway minimise the loss of each and every one to their loved ones, however a welcome direction of travel still. Particularly as the figure at the start of November was 137.

You have your data points @boys3.

I have mine.

[quote JanglyBeads]Good thread by Michael Mina on how the media is representing omicron:

twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1465686060411801614?s=21[/quote]
But the ratio of cases to hospitalisations to deaths has changed with vaccines (as Boys3 brilliant data charts often show) and I think that is what the media are trying to say

From Megan Kall:
13 cases of #OmicronVariant Microbe in England (+8 overnight)

9 cases of #OmicronVariant in Scotland (+3 overnight)

10 English local authorities & 3 Scottish local authorities

Sorry Meaghan

All the Scottish cases are from a single event

But the ratio of cases to hospitalisations to deaths has changed with vaccines (as Boys3 brilliant data charts often show) and I think that is what the media are trying to say

No, there has been many saying that omicron is less serious in South Africa - the number of people in hospital in South Africa has dropped significantly since the cases started rising, we don't actually know if this is due to different lag, 'cos it's re-infection and protection against severe outcomes are there, or something about the demographic being infected (remember SA is a young population and has already had excess deaths, there may not be many left to be seriously harmed)

But so far, since mid November, people in hospital in SA with Covid has dropped by 1/3rd - even as admissions has stayed within the same ballpark - ie people are discharged at a faster rate in the last weeks. But of course it is too early to actually be confident of these figures - but it's that not vaccines that people are talking about and the twitter "thread" was talking about.

The event was 20th November so could well have spread