Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 14th November 2021

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Ummm. GUILDFORD, WAVERLEY. I wonder whether our relatively low vax rates, and lack of local provision is to blame. As posted here earlier only one local vax centre and less than 50% of the 12-15 vaxxed so far.

Testing centre rammed on Monday. DH neg and results through back in 18 hours so that is working well at least.

Just to say, hope you're ok, MRex

Been lurking a little but joining in the good wishes for mrex. Take care of yourself

Hi, thanks for the good wishes. LFTs have been negative and all 3 of us had negative PCR. Funnily enough, I answered in the NHS survey that I trusted the PCR, then still doing LFTs, hmmmm strange level of trust! SPO2 back to consistently 96 today, I think it was just blips because of very high resting heart rate, again that's back below 100 today so I'm hopeful that means I'm improving. I get tachycardia from time to time, so I know GP only pays attention when it's consistently over 100 for a few days. I've put the booster to Wednesday next week and will see how it goes.

The PCR confirmations have arrived, and sadly it doesn't appear to be failed de-duping so the daily numbers were not inflated. Numbers still up week on week, although look smaller (England only 1000 up, not checked exact others.)

Still all indicating R around 1.

So Fred, does that mean a sharp rise in LFD positives?

Meanwhile, some very good news re booster protection:
twitter.com/paulmainwood/status/1463877974340558855?s=21

No, no change in LFD positivity rate - it was purely missing PCR confirimations.

Remember the "going above the line" on vaccine effectiveness is expected because a group of the age group will also have been infected in the interim so it's not just vaccine effectiveness being identified.

Boosters certainly work though! (How long is the question)

However scientists are very concerned about this new variant, B.1.1.529, WHO discussing it tomorrow:

twitter.com/newzroom405/status/1463838347051384837?s=21

I thought I also read somewhere earlier, that boosters seem to give higher immunity levels than two doses, not just a restoration of the pre-existing level, but I can’t find that now!

[quote JanglyBeads]However scientists are very concerned about this new variant, B.1.1.529, WHO discussing it tomorrow:

twitter.com/newzroom405/status/1463838347051384837?s=21[/quote]
I'd be amazed if the UK Govt could be proactive enough to make a definitive effort to stop this variant coming into the country, but that's the only thing we can do at the moment - afawk it's not here yet and we have the advantage of having a headsup about it.
Which will be squandered as every other 'time' advantage was.

Quarantino how would you stop it? Just wondering how full proof it could be

SA and probably the region needs red listing.

It’s true that that would not be infallible but it would certainly help and might be enough.

I think it’s travelled to HK but not sure if they’ve isolated that ok

It’s probably elsewhere already but yes red list might help

No sign of a downturn in Austria / Germany etc. yet, it's 10 days after the Austrian "lockdown of the unvaccinated" - which is long enough to see an effect if it was an effective intervention, so I think we can assume it's not - 3 days for their full lockdown not of course early enough to see, let's hope it does as their numbers are getting high.

Why haven't the vaccines been "tweaked" for Delta let alone any new variant, we were told this was going to be a feature of them? Yet we've had no tweaking and no even announcements of studies?

Yes sorry, just remembered it was discovered in HK but in someone who’d travelled from SA and was still in quarantine. But also in Botswana?

Yes sorry I meant redlisting the relevant country/countries.

It's here already isn't it? 10 cases identified so far I read.

Good point sirfred.

Oh right I’m not surprised it’s here with international travel by the time you see it rise it’s traveled

Sorry just reread and it's 10 cases elsewhere!

Personally I’d red list. It might slow it down a bit but also it stops the you let it in comments later!

@mrshoho

Sorry just reread and it's 10 cases elsewhere!

It is quite possibly already here nonetheless... 10 cases identified and sequenced probably means there are many thousands out there.

It's a depressing prospect of just how harmful a new variant could be. The thought of ending up back at square one after all this is too awful to imagine. Holding on to the fact that scientists are on top of it and it turns out not to be as highly transmissible.

More on nu:

mobile.twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911554538160130

It has become dominant in regions of SA in just 2 weeks. I think it is probably too late to limit travel...