Are we nearer the beginning, the middle, or the end of the covid pandemic?

[PrincessNutNuts]

They asked this on YouGov this week.

What do you think?

Middle, unless we get a vaccine escaping variant.

End

Pandemics historically last 4 years from start to finish.

I did that survey as well. I put middle. You only have to look at Russia and to some extent Australia to see we are along way from over it world wide.

World wide? I think we are still at the start.

I'd say we're at the beginning of the end. I read that historically, pandemics last 3 or 4 years, although we have vaccines now, so presumably that will shorten things to some extent.

I would say middle. With case numbers as high as they are and vaccine immunity waning, I can't see how anyone could argue that we're at the end yet. And clearly, with more than 5 million dead and multiple vaccines having been successfully developed, we're well past the beginning.

I'd say middle but then again I always wonder whether or not we're due to go back into a lockdown.

There’s an article in the Guardian suggesting that Britain, with high infection and vaccination rates (by world standards), might be closer to the endemic phase than anywhere else.
I tend to think middle or maybe beginning of the end.

With approach like this, it's really difficult to know. Not great vaccination rate, no mitigation, it's all up to luck.

On the other hand my native country over took vaccination rate of UK despite late start, opened up things with mitigations, and still telling people to be careful daily on the news. All the politicians seen wearing masks. Rates are very low.

The Spanish 'Flu lasted 18 months-2 years, considered over by summer 1920, with small outbreaks from time to time in a few places. It's now an endemic 'flu.

Judging by that, I'd say that we're near the end, but would expect small outbreaks from time to time, specially in places that haven't had many cases in the main pandemic, as it becomes endemic.

End

Totally depends which country you are discussing? Us, beginning of the end, many other places still in the absolute thick of it

@amicissimma

The Spanish 'Flu lasted 18 months-2 years, considered over by summer 1920, with small outbreaks from time to time in a few places. It's now an endemic 'flu.

Judging by that, I'd say that we're near the end, but would expect small outbreaks from time to time, specially in places that haven't had many cases in the main pandemic, as it becomes endemic.

This is what we planned for, a 'flu pandemic but it's not what we got. I would say we are middle.

Middle. Historically they apparently last 3-5 years on average with some flaring up regularly for decades (eg the plague).

"Becoming endemic" doesn't mean it's over or the end, if anything it would mean we're at the beginning as something endemic is around indefinitely.

The difference now versus historic pandemics is how easy and widespread travel is. Whilst some parts of the world are not even in double digit vaccination rates, there are chances for it to mutate and then people travel to other countries like the UK and bring new variants.

The flip side is some of those countries with low vaccination rates actually haven't got many cases - possibly as they aren't a popular country for tourism or business travel. So the question is will they avoid it all together or will it hit them later (likewise some countries hardly suffered from Spanish flu as an example)

I'd say we're in the middle, but a lot depends on global responses not just what the UK does.

Deep in the middle. Nowhere near the end. But with flashes of light from the end of the tunnel.

For the U.K., I would say middle, or maybe getting towards the end of the middle. Hopefully by the spring we will be able to say we are at the beginning of the end but I suspect we will need another winter to be sure

@milkyaqua

Deep in the middle. Nowhere near the end. But with flashes of light from the end of the tunnel.

Which may just be an on-coming train!

Which may just be an on-coming train!

@VladmirsPoutine

I'd say middle but then again I always wonder whether or not we're due to go back into a lockdown.

Well we'll certainly not being going back to lockdown. The first ones cost far too much and did far too much damage to peoples' health, the infrastructure, supply chain, business, economy, jobs, etc. If things get bad, we need to do everything just short of lockdowns.

Either that, or we need a "proper" short lockdown where there are no self-certified exemptions. A full scale lockdown when literally, only the most essential things continue, i.e. security/police. healthcare, food supply chain - everything, yes, everything else is frozen, no air travel, no building sites, small/food shops only, permits needed for leaving your house, etc. I don't think the British public would accept that.

@NameChangeNameShange The flip side is some of those countries with low vaccination rates actually haven't got many cases - possibly as they aren't a popular country for tourism or business travel.

Or that they're simply not testing, not correctly identifying cause of death, etc. Some countries may also have a population with a higher immunity (due to lots of other illnesses in the past), or may have younger populations less succeptible (i.e. if healthcare is generally bad, people generally die of other things before they're old enough to die of covid!).

I'd say about halfway.

Middle

But a different question wrt restrictions - we are coming out of those

@MarshaBradyo

Middle

But a different question wrt restrictions - we are coming out of those

Agree. Covid certainly isn't gone but we are changing the way we are reacting to it.