Are we nearer the beginning, the middle, or the end of the covid pandemic?

[PrincessNutNuts]

They asked this on YouGov this week.

What do you think?

You can have a pandemic and the same disease be endemic in some regions, @DockOTheBay. A pandemic is when you have higher than expected levels of disease in multiple countries/regions, not necessarily the entire world. Endemic is when case numbers are stable in a region/country.

Middle

@OnlyFoolsnMothers

End - doesn’t matter what variants are found now, short of them mass killing off children no one will comply with any severe restrictions

That’s a different question entirely.

Beginning of the end, but think it will be another 12 to 18 months until the end.

Middle.

[quote Warhertisuff]@PrincessNutNuts

The longer it takes a country to learn that NPIs are required, the longer the pandemic waves will continue.

I think precisely the opposite. The more NPIs adopted, the longer it will drag things out.[/quote]
Well Singapore is our case study.

They've had a relatively calm first 22 months of the pandemic.

Then they switched to "living with the virus".

By your estimation they'll be done and dusted in 2022.

By mine: They've added years of chaos.

@MarshaBradyo

I've no idea what endemic in the U.K. is going to look like but I know we're nowhere near it.

Why do you say this? What about high antibody levels?

The current wave here is caused mostly by infection in school age, a group that had been suppressed to benefit other groups mostly.

Once infection is higher in school age then we will have a better picture of immunity - this is what Chris Whitty was talking about when he talked about pre winter peak before flu hit.

You're going to have to spell out how the school age group have been suppressed to benefit other groups immediately prior to the first wave or the current one.

We have pretty much removed mitigations for school age which means the remaining 50% will get acquired immunity in this wave.

Why do you say

I've no idea what endemic in the U.K. is going to look like but I know we're nowhere near it.

What are you basing this on?

Ah we are nowhere NEAR the end! This is going to last at least eleventy more decades unless we glue everyone to the insides of their houses immediately and even then it’ll probably last at least another fifty years.

You mark my words, I know what I am talking about because I have a GCSE in Geography AND I scored 100% in an IATA hazardous goods course which I did a few years ago for work. AND I can use long words correctly sometimes.

@PrincessNutNuts

Well Singapore is our case study. They've had a relatively calm first 22 months of the pandemic. Then they switched to "living with the virus". By your estimation they'll be done and dusted in 2022. By mine: They've added years of chaos.

To clarify 2022 was my estimation for the U.K., not Singapore. I agree Singapore will take considerably longer, but precisely because they have tried to suppress Covid to hell and back!

Their cases are rocketing despite their new "living with it" policy; a policy, by the way, which requires no more than two people to gather together, along with mandatory mask wearing inside and out...

I'd be interested to know what sustainable NCI measures Singapore should take to keep Covid under control? Mandatory hazmat suits?

How is Singapore our case study? They have followed a very different path to us and continue to do so

@MarshaBradyo

We have pretty much removed mitigations for school age which means the remaining 50% will get acquired immunity in this wave.

Why do you say

I've no idea what endemic in the U.K. is going to look like but I know we're nowhere near it.

What are you basing this on?

Experience.

I don't agree with you that suppression of school age children to benefit other groups caused any of the previous waves.

Or the current wave.

The government is about to reinstate some mitigations.

They won't be enough....

So there will be more...

When things eventually calm down they'll be taken away again...

Then sooner or later we'll be here again.

And repeat.

For years.

I expect this to continue until we get a new government - or a new policy.

But you voted "Middle" and we're almost two years in - so you must think we have some way to go?

I don't agree with you that suppression of school age children to benefit other groups caused any of the previous waves.

No this is a misunderstanding on your part.

My point was this current wave is mostly school age children, not that they caused previous waves, the opposite, it is this wave they make up as majority. Once we reach higher immunity in this age group we’ll see decline, which was the idea - see Chris Whitty.

It’s hard to know exactly next two years but it will be different. Which is why I separated out restrictions which will end around now.

We’ll see deaths and cases so it won’t be over, so I said middle, but it will be far more manageable. The biggest difference will be around restrictions

Tbh when we get to that stage and media drop reporting the majority will drift off and not think about it so much - when was the last time you looked up flu or other daily deaths? Maybe you do, but most won’t be similar.

@Quartz2208

How is Singapore our case study? They have followed a very different path to us and continue to do so

It was in reply to @Warhertisuff's comment that

The more NPIs adopted, the longer it will drag things out

Singapore has abandoned theirs for a "living with covid" policy whereas we're about to reinstate ours - so if @warhertisuff is right Singapore should be done and dusted soon now they've stopped dragging things out.

What are we about to reinstate?

Is it actually true that “ Singapore has abandoned theirs for a "living with covid" policy”?

You cannot use that to say we are following Singapore plus as far as I can see their current rules are stricter than our plan b which at the moment we are not implementing (unless you know something we don’t). Singapore have just extended it until november

@RichTeaRichTea

Is it actually true that “ Singapore has abandoned theirs for a "living with covid" policy”?

They're trying to.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2021/9/20/can-we-live-with-covid-19-singapore-tries-to-show-how

That article is from over a month ago

It’s a stretch to say that they have abandoned all mitigations so that you can use them as a trump card against an opinion you disagree with!

@ImTellingTales

What are we about to reinstate?

Wondering if something has been said on this

@PrincessNutNuts they really haven’t they extended it on 20th October until Nov and they are currently stricter than our plan B. A week after that article they were implemented

@PrincessNutNuts

When people refer to "living with it", they generally mean living without, or at least with minimal, restrictions. Singapore's "living with it" contains many NCIs that are far, far stricter than the U.K. , and isn't really "living with it" at all!....at least in the usual sense of the phrase. So my point stands, i believe the U.K., with far fewer NCI's in place will reach normality sooner than Singapore, which I can foresee still trying to suppress Covid for a long time yet.

@ImTellingTales

What are we about to reinstate?

Plan B will bring back some NPIs such as masks, work from home if you can, covid passports and asking the public to behave more cautiously in general.

I have no opinion or insight on how long things are likely to take to reach normality in different countries, I just like to see evidence of what I’m being told