Are we nearer the beginning, the middle, or the end of the covid pandemic?

[PrincessNutNuts]

They asked this on YouGov this week.

What do you think?

I'm not wfh and doing lockdown for another 2 years! So saddened by this thread - I had always heard two years

@Gwenhwyfar

I'm not wfh and doing lockdown for another 2 years! So saddened by this thread - I had always heard two years

I don't think there will be any more lockdowns.

"Covid certainly isn't gone but we are changing the way we are reacting to it."

I remember reading that pandemics can have a biological end or a social end. The social end is basically when you carry on regardless.

End of the middle

The flip side is some of those countries with low vaccination rates actually haven't got many cases - possibly as they aren't a popular country for tourism or business travel. So the question is will they avoid it all together or will it hit them later (likewise some countries hardly suffered from Spanish flu as an example)

I don't think low cases are anything to do with lack of tourism or business travel. All it takes is enough travel to seed cases (which is absolutely everywhere apart from a few isolated Pacific islands that have sealed themselves off).... Once Covid has got in, and there are cases, that's it.... and it will spread unless there are serious mitigations.

It won't "fizzle out" due to a lack of constant feeding from abroad - Covid, and Delta in particular, is far too contagious for that.

@Gwenhwyfar

I'm not wfh and doing lockdown for another 2 years! So saddened by this thread - I had always heard two years

I know. At the start of this people kept saying 'pandemics typically last 2 years', now it's been nearly 2 years and we're apparently still at the start and 'pandemics typically last 4-5 years'

Sorry just to clarify @Badbadbunny yes there's absolutely a whole raft of different reasons. My point was less about rates or policies in specific countries and more that so many countries are at different stages with differ situations. It's important for the UK to assess its own position but ultimately this is a global issue

And @Warhertisuff I live in a country with minimal case, middling but not great vaccination, whilst still doing lots of community testing and strict quarantine for any travellers. When that changes and borders open Covid will hit here from overseas, there's no doubt. The government is both in denial and inept. Assuming it hits, we can only hope it doesn't mutate and travellers take a new variant back.

And by the way China itself with its huge population is still pretty much locked up, and following a Zero Covid policy. It just locked down a city of 4 million for less than 50 cases. When it opens properly, well that will be interesting...

@Gwenhwyfar

I'm not wfh and doing lockdown for another 2 years! So saddened by this thread - I had always heard two years

A pandemic isnt a thing as in something predictable. All anyone could say when this started was how long previous pandemics had lasted, it's a little unrealistic to assume that a new virus in a totally different world to the previous one would follow the same path

But no way is England going into another lockdown, most people are largely back to very much normal ine

When they find a cure (vaccines buy time).

@User135644

When they find a cure (vaccines buy time).

There isn't a cure for any other coronavirus or for flu either so I hope it will end before then!

I think we're at the end of the middle. Plenty of other countries are being ultra strict with their restrictions but I feel it's just delaying the inevitable. Perhaps they are taking that approach currently because they are behind on their vaccinations and their health systems aren't great. I would wonder why in a country with a good vaccination rate and good health care for people likely get more ill with it (as they would with flu, for example) they are wanting to stick to such strict lockdowns.

I am slowly starting to think, after months and months of being super careful and wary in our own family, and being horrified at other people being so "careless" (to my eyes), that our approach (of slowly returning to normal) may turn out to be the best one. It's clear lockdowns won't eradicate the virus in a country unless you ban international travel and have ultra strict lockdowns, even for a handful of cases in one city in one country.

DH and I are double jabbed, 17 year old DS has had his first, 15 year old has just been invited to book his. DH and I both had COVID recently, and we've both had worse "normal" viruses. Both sons didn't get it, possibly because DS2 most likely had already had it after going to the infamous Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid game in March 2020 so perhaps his antibodies are better than our vaxxed ones. And DS1 had only had his jab 3 weeks before DH and I were infected so his antibodies were still obviously way up there.

We fully expect to get it again at some point in the future. The only unknown now for is what multiple infections could mean for people long-term. Plus the chance of a drastic new variant for which current vaccinations can't be tweaked. But how long would we need to wait for for that to happen? It could be years. Do we really want to sit waiting in our houses scared while our economy and mental health goes down the pan?

There are some cities where 90% of people have stopped wearing masks. I now don't blame them at all. Whereas once I would have been horrified and disgusted.

Depends if your talking globally or individual countries. Globally somewhere in the middle. The uk I would say the end will be next may time after we have got out of the winter. I can see only restrictions on travel that other countries impose as to any we are imposing.

Tonga however... right at the beggining with their first case.

This pandemic likely will drag out globally longer than previous ones due to the global response with stop in travel and masks etc. While these mitigations will have kept deaths lower it will almost have certai ly dragged out the pandemic longer that it naturally would have done with no restrictions.

Beginning of the end.

@Gwenhwyfar

I'm not wfh and doing lockdown for another 2 years! So saddened by this thread - I had always heard two years

I also don’t think there will be any more lockdowns in the way we have seen before in the U.K. (I would also find another incredibly tough)

Don’t forget that we can only assess things properly retrospectively. It may be that by March/April 2022, with the winter behind us, it will be clearer that we are nearing the end (with fingers crossed for the winter) - which would mean two years more or less

Middle

Middle - some countries at the beginning. I'm in Asia, some countries here are looking at another 1-2 years before they are anywhere near 60% vaccinated.
@CurlyhairedAssassin to your point about countries with strict restrictions still - I'm in one of those. Significantly higher vaccination rates than U.K., great healthcare system. But we are in groups of 2 still. Basically they want to open up while minimising deaths and keeping space available in the ICU. So it's a really, really slow process...

Start

I think the middle.

Why did Boris keep saying we were nearly out of it so many times. At the beginning he said we'd be OK by Christmas, even I, as a layman, k ew that wouldn't be so. Surely he couldn't have been advised that.

It will follow same seasonal pattern as cold and flu, ie it’ll be v nasty until February, a bit better til April, then as good weather comes back, it’ll fade to almost nothing over summer, then come back every autumn/winter to kill off the most fragile in thousands, like flu does.

The pandemic will be over when the vast majority of people have immunity (whether from vaccine, or natural exposure), so the virus can no longer circulate freely, which I’d guess will be Spring 2023 assuming most people have annual booster.

Bit unlucky that our mid-Winter tradition is for everyone to travel around the country getting the oldest and youngest people together 😬

Scarlet fever and whooping cough make an interesting comparison. Both deadly dieases that we have learned to live with, both kill some every year, but so many people are immune that they don’t circulate widely and I’ve managed 40 yrs without catching either.

But if you’re asking about restrictions then I think we’re looking at a 3 week partial lockdown sometime between Dec-Feb, caused by pressure on hospitals, plus people being told to wear facemasks again. We ARE already supposed to do that, it is gocernment advice, but our appalling leaders don’t lead by example…

What a bizarre poll for YouGov?!! Why are they asking the general public whether they think the pandemic is nearly over? Are they testing our knowledge and understanding of epidemiology after all those press conferences?!! It sounds like something Dominic Cummings would have come up with. Let's take it to a referendum and let the public decide, not the scientists...

Globally we are in the middle of the pandemic but the UK is getting close to endemic. I believe the latest ONS estimate is 98% of the adult UK population has antibodies.

I think a bigger question is what will endemic look like, how high will case rates be? But that's not really a question for YouGov either

Although I think it would be interesting to know what people are expecting.

I think Covid will become 'nearly' endemic by early 2022 based on trends. I say 'nearly' as it will only have reached a steady state in the section of the population that has returned fully, or very nearly fully, to normal. For them the pandemic is effectively over.

However, there remains a significant minority of people who won't have been behaving in their pre-pandemic ways. The pandemic will effectively continue for those people untll such time as they feel able to come out of their shells. That may take many years.

This is what YouGov thought:

@PrincessNutNuts

This is what YouGov thought:

What is the purpose of the poll? No one can possibly know the answer to the question and it's only a question that can be answered with hindsight, I don't get it

In the UK, beginning of the end but it will be very drawn-out. I expect to be asked to wear face masks and wfh next winter too.

I also think that the effect of living with endemic Covid will be a lower life expectancy. For everyone. It will become just another thing that kills you, but with a higher death rate than flu/pneumonia etc, so someone who's ill or getting older might have survived flu, but Covid will kill them. Eventually the population will reach a level of herd immunity whereby cases are so low is a rare infection, but until then we can all expect to get it and 'test' our body's response. And hopefully vaccines and treatments will improve - we are still at the beginning of the science there.