Are we nearer the beginning, the middle, or the end of the covid pandemic?

[PrincessNutNuts]

They asked this on YouGov this week.

What do you think?

Middle

The purpose of the YouGov poll was to gather opinions I expect @SirensofTitan.

Much of the prevailing narrative about covid over the last 22 months has been short-sighted, unrealistic, and imbued with a false optimism there was no basis for.

From "3 week lockdown" to "break the back of the beast in 12 weeks" to "exit wave", the narrative has often been that the end is in sight.

It wasn't.

It isn't.

And it's interesting that most people seem to have caught on.

YouGov often asks some odd questions, I have found. To an extent it’s about generating responses/engagement rather than any specific outcome I think

@RichTeaRichTea

YouGov often asks some odd questions, I have found. To an extent it’s about generating responses/engagement rather than any specific outcome I think

Absolutely

It’s possible to get the virus won’t be gone but restrictions will be

Which is why I said middle and the poll is saying the same, which is fine.

It'll never leave, we blew that option last year, it's now here forever.

Bang in the middle with another miserable winter (but not as bad as last year).

I think it will be over when the healthcare system is largely privatised along an american model

What is the point of gathering the public opinion on something, the result of which isn’t going to change much? I mean if we are at the end of a pandemic, our opinion counts for nothing 😂😂😂

I think it's (mostly) all still to play for.

Government policy leads human behaviour which is the single biggest determining factor.

Countries who correctly assessed the threat and implemented a SARS pandemic plan (Don't let it spread, don't let it take hold of your population) are at their mid-point. They just need to vaccinate and calibrate the level of continuing NPIs required to protect their economy and their population, and they'll be out of the woods. (WFH, ventilation and masks during respiratory virus season are probably top of the list.)

Countries who mistook SARS CoV 2 for flu and encouraged the virus to burn through their population's sacrificial lambs in pursuit of herd immunity are in a weaker position which can be exacerbated by a determination to go back to normal without the protection of NPIs.

The longer it takes a country to learn that NPIs are required, the longer the pandemic waves will continue.

Scarlet fever and whooping cough make an interesting comparison. Both deadly dieases that we have learned to live with, both kill some every year, but so many people are immune that they don’t circulate widely and I’ve managed 40 yrs without catching either.

I'm not sure you can really compare them to COVID. We have a successful treatment for scarlet fever (antibiotics) and there is a long lasting vaccine for whooping cough that prevents serious illness in those most at risk of serious disease (babies and children), plus infection seems to provide sterilising immunity (unlike COVID).

Although the pertussis (whooping cough) vaccine doesn't provide sterilising immunity, it provides protection from serious illness for about 10 years. Pertussis can be fatal or cause serious illness in babies and young children but is generally much milder in teenagers and adults so childhood vaccination has a huge impact on preventing serious illness. You might actually have caught pertussis and not known as studies suggest that many people are asymptomatic if they have been vaccinated. Interestingly, there has been a resurgence of pertussis cases but no studies have found a full explanation why.

Scarlet fever is a bacterial infection so we can now treat it successfully with antibiotics. It is no longer the serious disease it once was. It's usually a childhood illness because it is caused by susceptibility to toxins from infection with Streptococcus A (a bacteria that can cause a range of illnesses such as sore throats and cellulitis) and most people aren't susceptible to the toxins by the age of 10. Cases declined last century but are rising again. Again we don't have an entirely satisfactory explanation why, although a more virulent strain has emerged in the last decade due to a type of virus called a bacteriophage infecting the bacteria. Even bacteria get viruses!

@Iggly

What is the point of gathering the public opinion on something, the result of which isn’t going to change much? I mean if we are at the end of a pandemic, our opinion counts for nothing 😂😂😂

It's kinda what they do...

It is also doesnt specify globally/UK/Europe which is key. Those pandemics that lasted longer tended to move from place to place and therefore overall lasted longer than Spanish Flu did which spread fairly quickly.

Tonga for example has just gotten its first case and is about to go into Lockdown. New Zealand/Australia are just approaching the middle section.

The UK is in the middle to end - the main part is over but testing is likely to last for awhile longer, booster shots will need to be given over the next 6 months or so and decisions need to be made regarding 12-15 and then children.

That said I dont think the prevailing narrative has been like that - I remember being on threads last year where the understanding was a hard 18-24 months with the potential for ripples to go on longer

The longer it takes a country to learn that NPIs are required, the longer the pandemic waves will continue.

Germany has fast growth atm, despite many holding it up as an example on here.

Even with the ‘proper’ masks etc

Higher immunity will cut transmission better than above

Waves were mostly created by suppression it will change pattern when endemic

What are NPIs please?

@RichTeaRichTea

What are NPIs please?

Non pharmaceutical interventions.

Also known as "mitigations".

They are mostly designed to reduce transmission, so stuff like testing to find cases, isolating contacts, isolating when infected, better ventilation, working from home, social distancing, masks etc.

By very definition, a pandemic is global (or encompasses multiple regions), @Quartz2208. COVID might be endemic in some countries but there can still be a pandemic.

It's a stupid question to be asking anyone other than an epidemiologist.

Thank you, I know what mitigations are, but NPIs was a new acronym to me

I think in the UK we are very close to covid being endemic now, so for us close to the end. For other places I don't know in detail. I'd think places like Australia & new Zealand are still near the beginning.

@sarah20212021

Middle. Historically they apparently last 3-5 years on average with some flaring up regularly for decades (eg the plague).

"Becoming endemic" doesn't mean it's over or the end, if anything it would mean we're at the beginning as something endemic is around indefinitely.

Becoming endemic means no longer a pandemic. It can't be both.

@MarshaBradyo

The longer it takes a country to learn that NPIs are required, the longer the pandemic waves will continue.

Germany has fast growth atm, despite many holding it up as an example on here.

Even with the ‘proper’ masks etc

Higher immunity will cut transmission better than above

Waves were mostly created by suppression it will change pattern when endemic

Spain might be a better example than Germany.

It's ranked 3rd out of the top 53 largest economies in the world this month for covid resilience.

Singapore has plummeted from number 1 to 39 since their shift to "living with covid"

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-resilience-ranking/?utmmedium=social&utmmsource=twitter&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utmcontent=business&utmmcampaign=socialflow-organic

What suppression is creating the current wave in your opinion then Marsha?

Or the first one?

I've no idea what endemic in the U.K. is going to look like but I know we're nowhere near it.

I've no idea what endemic in the U.K. is going to look like but I know we're nowhere near it.

Why do you say this? What about high antibody levels?

The current wave here is caused mostly by infection in school age, a group that had been suppressed to benefit other groups mostly.

Once infection is higher in school age then we will have a better picture of immunity - this is what Chris Whitty was talking about when he talked about pre winter peak before flu hit.

@chesirecat99

By very definition, a pandemic is global (or encompasses multiple regions), *@Quartz2208*. COVID might be endemic in some countries but there can still be a pandemic.

It's a stupid question to be asking anyone other than an epidemiologist.

Yes but within that different countries as at different stages of it

Even an epidemiologist would struggle with it

@PrincessNutNuts

The longer it takes a country to learn that NPIs are required, the longer the pandemic waves will continue.

I think precisely the opposite. The more NPIs adopted, the longer it will drag things out.

End - doesn’t matter what variants are found now, short of them mass killing off children no one will comply with any severe restrictions