Are we nearer the beginning, the middle, or the end of the covid pandemic?

[PrincessNutNuts]

They asked this on YouGov this week.

What do you think?

@RichTeaRichTea

That article is from over a month ago

They announced the policy in June.

It's just that every time they take another step towards it, more of their population ends up in hospital and/or a coffin - and weirdly people in Singapore seem to mind people suffering and dying when it can be avoided.

(And they know it can be avoided because they have pretty much avoided it until now. )

I think Australia is next to try "living with covid".

Maybe Australians won't mind all the dying that comes with it?

When is Plan B happening? There’s a lot of certainty in op’s posts which is overly pessimistic

‘England’s fall in infection rates raises hopes of avoiding ‘Plan B’
Shift in Whitehall mood as latest data show week-on-week decline in coronavirus cases’

October 26, 2021 from the FT

If they didn’t when cases were higher then they won’t now

@RichTeaRichTea

I have no opinion or insight on how long things are likely to take to reach normality in different countries, I just like to see evidence of what I’m being told

Fair enough.

@MarshaBradyo

When is Plan B happening? There’s a lot of certainty in op’s posts which is overly pessimistic

‘England’s fall in infection rates raises hopes of avoiding ‘Plan B’
Shift in Whitehall mood as latest data show week-on-week decline in coronavirus cases’

October 26, 2021 from the FT

If they didn’t when cases were higher then they won’t now

I expect it in November.

[quote Warhertisuff]@PrincessNutNuts

When people refer to "living with it", they generally mean living without, or at least with minimal, restrictions. Singapore's "living with it" contains many NCIs that are far, far stricter than the U.K. , and isn't really "living with it" at all!....at least in the usual sense of the phrase. So my point stands, i believe the U.K., with far fewer NCI's in place will reach normality sooner than Singapore, which I can foresee still trying to suppress Covid for a long time yet.[/quote]
Ok. So when do you see reaching normality happening?

I can't remember how you voted.

Ok so as baseless as your claim U.K. is far off reach endemic stage

Nothing being talked about, but your expectation.

That’s ok then.

[quote Quartz2208]@PrincessNutNuts they really haven’t they extended it on 20th October until Nov and they are currently stricter than our plan B. A week after that article they were implemented[/quote]
Well the government is trying their best.

But folk in Singapore seem to mind all the sickness and death.

@MarshaBradyo

Ok so as baseless as your claim U.K. is far off reach endemic stage

Nothing being talked about, but your expectation.

That’s ok then.

It's not like I'm usually right or anything...

Exactly I can rest easy ;

We are on third of the way through. Unless we have a mutation because we aren’t giving enough vaccines to poorer countries.
I sometimes think (despair) that all this misery could have come from inadequate safety in a lab. If it did, and they had just been more careful we could have avoided all this. I guess we will never know.

@PrincessNutNuts

I expect it in November.

Cases are actually reducing a little, but even supposing they do, any restrictions will be far less severe that this time last year. I'll be a bump on the road, not a major reversal. We've had no restrictions for over three months now and things are nowhere close to the same trajectory as last year.

@MarshaBradyo

Ok so as baseless as your claim U.K. is far off reach endemic stage

Nothing being talked about, but your expectation.

That’s ok then.

Remind me how many months or years you think it will be until we reach endemicity given that you think we are still in the middle of the pandemic?

[quote Warhertisuff]@PrincessNutNuts

I expect it in November.

Cases are actually reducing a little, but even supposing they do, any restrictions will be far less severe that this time last year. I'll be a bump on the road, not a major reversal. We've had no restrictions for over three months now and things are nowhere close to the same trajectory as last year.[/quote]
I don't think anyone said things were, did they?

There are other posters who back stuff up so it would be more concerning

But just expectations from someone this far on a spectrum isn’t too bad.

@MarshaBradyo

There are other posters who back stuff up so it would be more concerning

But just expectations from someone this far on a spectrum isn’t too bad.

Well we won't have to wait long to find out.

Ok sounds like you’ll welcome it. We’ll see

@MarshaBradyo

Ok sounds like you’ll welcome it. We’ll see

You know what I think about that nonsense.

The more of it we see on here, the closer we are to a full lockdown.

Made me laugh

I doubt it

“ They announced the policy in June.

It's just that every time they take another step towards it, more of their population ends up in hospital and/or a coffin - and weirdly people in Singapore seem to mind people suffering and dying when it can be avoided.

(And they know it can be avoided because they have pretty much avoided it until now. )

I think Australia is next to try "living with covid".

Maybe Australians won't mind all the dying that comes with it?”

This is a completely separate argument. Whether Singaporeans are more or less happy with the number of deaths has nothing to do with what you actually said - that Singapore had removed all mitigations so could be used in future to determine whether the PP was right about timescales for normality depending on levels of restrictions. You can have that other discussion if you want, but it’s not what you were arguing in the first place. I have no idea who is right about timescales to normality based on restrictions, I don’t claim any sort of expertise or insight. But it’s difficult to follow logic trails when arguments jump all over the place - it makes it look like you tried to argue something but have realised that what you said wasn’t actually backed up in reality in terms of the situation in Singapore, so you broadened the argument.

@RichTeaRichTea

“ They announced the policy in June.

It's just that every time they take another step towards it, more of their population ends up in hospital and/or a coffin - and weirdly people in Singapore seem to mind people suffering and dying when it can be avoided.

(And they know it can be avoided because they have pretty much avoided it until now. )

I think Australia is next to try "living with covid".

Maybe Australians won't mind all the dying that comes with it?”

This is a completely separate argument. Whether Singaporeans are more or less happy with the number of deaths has nothing to do with what you actually said - that Singapore had removed all mitigations so could be used in future to determine whether the PP was right about timescales for normality depending on levels of restrictions. You can have that other discussion if you want, but it’s not what you were arguing in the first place. I have no idea who is right about timescales to normality based on restrictions, I don’t claim any sort of expertise or insight. But it’s difficult to follow logic trails when arguments jump all over the place - it makes it look like you tried to argue something but have realised that what you said wasn’t actually backed up in reality in terms of the situation in Singapore, so you broadened the argument.

Yep. Sorry. I get my Singapore info from family and friends living there, and on paper the situation looks slightly less dramatic than I understood it to be from them.

@RichTeaRichTea

That article is from over a month ago

A more recent article:

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/21/singapore-hospitals-risk-being-overwhelmed-after-record-daily-covid-deaths

But folk in Singapore seem to mind all the sickness and death.

And that's why Singapore will take longer to return to normality. You may argue that's theirs is the right approach, but it does mean that the restrictions that we have had since early 2020 are essentially permanent with severe limits of social contact part of life for years and years. with the pandemic always lurking, ready to pounce with more disease, the moment we relent.

If that were to be the reality, then we're only at the beginning, and a very grim and dystopian future beckons.

Thankfully most people in this country won't accept such a repressed existence. We'll live with it, and yes, some will die from it, but such is life. And that's why the majority will be living their pre-2020 lives during 2022 - heck, most are doing so now!

Remind me how many months or years you think it will be until we reach endemicity given that you think we are still in the middle of the pandemic?

I'm not sure you have grasped what endemic and pandemic mean, @PrincessNutNuts. Endemic just means that there is a steady state in a geographic region, the number of infections is at a constant baseline level. An epidemic is when you have much higher levels of infection than the endemic baseline. A pandemic is when you have epidemics in multiple countries/continents at the same time. COVID will become endemic is some countries before the pandemic is over ie the number of cases will remain steady.

End.

I have a strong feeling that cases will fall off a cliff and, by spring next year, there will be very few cases.

Third vaccines, vaccinating more age groups, and natural immunity from infection will make it very hard to spread. There will always be the odd pocket of dry tinder, but nowhere for infection to spread.

@chesirecat99

Remind me how many months or years you think it will be until we reach endemicity given that you think we are still in the middle of the pandemic?

I'm not sure you have grasped what endemic and pandemic mean, @PrincessNutNuts. Endemic just means that there is a steady state in a geographic region, the number of infections is at a constant baseline level. An epidemic is when you have much higher levels of infection than the endemic baseline. A pandemic is when you have epidemics in multiple countries/continents at the same time. COVID will become endemic is some countries before the pandemic is over ie the number of cases will remain steady.

Thanks for this, good to have insight.

Re Singapore they will act based on capacity as other countries do - not to do with minding it or not