Are we nearer the beginning, the middle, or the end of the covid pandemic?

[PrincessNutNuts]

They asked this on YouGov this week.

What do you think?

Beginning of the middle. In the UK we've moved beyond the panic stage but as mentioned up thread we have no idea what " living with covid" will look like longterm. It may still require some degree of management. I'm thinking about the HIV pandemic and how in the UK, preventative measures and testing are still necessary in some situations 40 years on even though the panic stage for most people is over (referring specifically to the UK situation). Unfortunately, not all pandemics are 'done and dusted' in 2 years.

What do you fo for a living princessnutnuts?

@Gwenhwyfar

"Covid certainly isn't gone but we are changing the way we are reacting to it."

I remember reading that pandemics can have a biological end or a social end. The social end is basically when you carry on regardless.

Oh thank god. This is brilliant. Where did you read this?

@chesirecat99

Remind me how many months or years you think it will be until we reach endemicity given that you think we are still in the middle of the pandemic?

I'm not sure you have grasped what endemic and pandemic mean, @PrincessNutNuts. Endemic just means that there is a steady state in a geographic region, the number of infections is at a constant baseline level. An epidemic is when you have much higher levels of infection than the endemic baseline. A pandemic is when you have epidemics in multiple countries/continents at the same time. COVID will become endemic is some countries before the pandemic is over ie the number of cases will remain steady.

Perhaps I haven't.

I was responding to @MarshaBradyo's earlier post where she said

*Middle

But a different question wrt restrictions - we are coming out of those*

The U.K. can't both be in the middle of a global pandemic and also in an endemic state locally at the same time - can it? It's a one or the other proposition?

Perhaps I misunderstood Marsha and she meant that globally we're in the middle of the pandemic but coming out if restrictions.

I must admit I thought she referred to the U.K.

Tbh I was more talking about it all being over

There will be cases and deaths but not restrictions

So yes pandemic globally and endemic here if I had to define it further

I’m pretty much focusing on whether restrictions are over I admit

Some say no way but from listening to various scientists speak higher immunity is the changer, and once school age group peak and fall the picture will change

@MarshaBradyo

Tbh I was more talking about it all being over

There will be cases and deaths but not restrictions

So yes pandemic globally and endemic here if I had to define it further

Do you want to put a time frame on when that U.K. endemic part will happen?

Given that you had a pretty strong reaction to me saying I don't think we're anywhere near it.

I love that this thread was really a ruse for the OP to chat about mitigations.........

No idea but in London very very few people are wearing masks. If it that infection London must be over it as everyone must have had it by now.

She hasn't answered my question as to what she does for a living yet, I'm presuming science based? Wing woman to Chris Witty?

I remember reading that pandemics can have a biological end or a social end. The social end is basically when you carry on regardless

Irrespective of the biological situation, the social end is drawing to a close, at least for most.

I'm in Singapore. We have significantly more restrictions than the U.K. and they will continue for several years to come. Most of the restrictions here would cause uproar back at home. Not a good case study for the U.K. - there aren't many places which have taken, or continue to take, a more opposite approach.

I think we’re about halfway through the pandemic.

But hopefully past halfway of the point of needing severe restrictions. Dependent on bringing light restrictions back.

Not at the end by any stretch if you’re actually paying attention.

@Warhertisuff

I remember reading that pandemics can have a biological end or a social end. The social end is basically when you carry on regardless

Irrespective of the biological situation, the social end is drawing to a close, at least for most.

The increase in mask wearing in the past fortnight makes me suspect otherwise. I’d wait till next year to be confident on this one. Unless you go off your own anecdotes

It’s still a pandemic and even if it was pandemic it would still be just serious for our country.

From Collins

endemic
(endemɪk )

1. ADJECTIVE

If a disease or illness is endemic in a place, it is frequently found among the people who live there. [technical] Polio was then endemic among children my age. Synonyms: widespread, common, sweeping, extensive More Synonyms of endemic

ADJECTIVE
If you say that a condition or problem is endemic, you mean that it is very common and strong, and cannot be dealt with easily.

Also from Collins

pandemic
(pændemɪk )
Word forms: plural pandemics
COUNTABLE NOUN
A pandemic is an occurrence of a disease that affects many people over a very wide area.
[formal]
They feared a new cholera pandemic.
Experts warned of the impending threat of a global pandemic if the virus was not contained.

Even if it was endemic

Correction sorry

End of the beginning, possibly beginning of the middle by next year.

All goes to pot if there’s vaccine escape though, and sadly I think parts of the UK are being made into the ideal petri dish for that.

@NadiaVulvokov

End of the beginning, possibly beginning of the middle by next year.

All goes to pot if there’s vaccine escape though, and sadly I think parts of the UK are being made into the ideal petri dish for that.

Effectively we have vaccine escape now. Delta can infect those who've been vaccinated - they just generally don't get seriously ill though. I suppose a variant could come along that evades the protection of the vaccine almost entirely, but it would struggle to outcompete Delta.

Besides, what's the alternative... Stay masked and distanced forever in case a killer variant emerges?

The increase in mask wearing in the past fortnight makes me suspect otherwise. I’d wait till next year to be confident on this one. Unless you go off your own anecdotes

I'm not highly confident - it would be foolish to be so - but I suspect any increase in masks (if indeed that is the case) reflects a slight dialling up of concerns with sky high case numbers. If a little more caution is the limit of people's reaction, then why cases do fall (as they very likely will at some point) then I expect people to relax accordingly. That's part of the reason I've given 2022 as the date the pandemic will be effectively over in the U.K. as I think winter will be bumpy.

@Pootle40

I love that this thread was really a ruse for the OP to chat about mitigations.........

Knew that would be the case as soon as I saw the username

PS I also wrote "drawing to a close" in the context of the 20 months we've had to date... I'd be surprised if most people aren't fully back to normal by spring even if some are being a bit more cautious at present.

Why are people so sure it will become endemic?

Most diseases we vaccinate against are not. There will always be the odd outbreak here and there, but very little.

Colds and flus are atypical in that they are disease families, not single viruses, and they can mutate at a really high rate.

COVID-19 is a single virus, and a relatively slow mutator. I think that, if we vaccinate all age groups (which we will sooner or later), it may well be (pretty much) suppressed.

“Why are people so sure it will become endemic?”

In the long term suppression may happen, but how can anyone seriously predict it when we don’t have a vaccine effective enough to do it, even if we had 100 per cent take up.

“I don’t think we can rule out a situation where Covid, though endemic, puts overwhelming pressure on health systems in some years”
Said the infectious disease modeller Adam Kucharski of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine in the Guardian on Friday.

@ImTellingTales,

Vaccine is pretty good, really.

It will get us 90% of the way there. Vaccine will consider to be better engineered, and the last 10% of suppression will come via immunity following infection.

We are currently at an r number of about 1, from a natural r number of about 6. The majority of this is due to vaccinations, and we still have not done 12-15s or younger (let alone second doses in these age groups) or many third vaccines.