Are we nearer the beginning, the middle, or the end of the covid pandemic?

[PrincessNutNuts]

They asked this on YouGov this week.

What do you think?

Middle, definitely not the end. However, as future mutations are unknown we may look back in years to come and realise this was the beginning!

In the middle. Some places are only just over the start, but in countries like the UK we are definitely well into the middle. Vaccines will bring it down from pandemic level before too long, but for those without vaccines it will be considerably longer. There are still parts of the world where TB, Polio and Diphtheria are at endemic or pandemic levels, whereas we don't see those illnesses in the western world due to the success of vaccination programmes

Sorry endemic and epidemic, not pandemic even

@MGMidget

Middle, definitely not the end. However, as future mutations are unknown we may look back in years to come and realise this was the beginning!

This possibility haunts my dreams.

Because Delta is SO dominant a new variant would have to be bloody turbocharged to out compete it. So it's been quieter on the variant front for a while.

There's no guarantee that that's going to last because mutations are random.

All it would take is a mutant capable of outdoing Delta to pop up in a country that allows high cases, and for it then then be allowed to spread and establish itself.

@Kokeshi123

It's not that helpful to compare the U.K.'s approach to countries who have only done a bit better than us.

It's far more useful to look at the countries that have consistently smashed it for 22 months and see what you can emulate from their approach.

Just re-upping this discussion in light of the new variant omicron to see if any of us have revised our opinion about where we are in the pandemic?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/04/uks-progress-on-covid-now-squandered-warns-top-scientist?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

Middle before and I still think middle now, even if it has all been squandered, you can't forget the first bit and go back to the start

The bit in the middle could go on for years and we may not see the end in our lifetime

Has anyone who was fully vaccinated died yet from the new variant?

I don't think there has been any deaths from the new variant, hopefully it'll stay that way

So why are we panicking and damaging the travel industry when it was only just starting to recover?!

@anne2650

So why are we panicking and damaging the travel industry when it was only just starting to recover?!

Got to be seen to Do Something.

@anne2650

So why are we panicking and damaging the travel industry when it was only just starting to recover?!

Because we seem to be afraid of not only a high death rate but also getting mildly ill.

@anne2650

So why are we panicking and damaging the travel industry when it was only just starting to recover?!

I think we are in a spiral now of however mild it gets we still have to do this stuff anyway just to be doing something, saving the NHS.

@anne2650

Has anyone who was fully vaccinated died yet from the new variant?

It's too early and too small numbers to expect any deaths yet.

But run it through a whole population...

Also - something that can infect most people in a room, as with the Norwegian Christmas party, will mutate like crazy if given the chance to spread through whole populations, which will provide vast opportunities for an extensively immune escape variant to emerge.

If the new variant is as transmissible as it seems it could be from the Norwegian incident, even if it's very mild it's pretty much certain it's going to cause some deaths. That's inevitable really. The bigger issue is how to manage that, particularly in a context where it would take a lot more than lockdown and masks to control.

Save the NHS! The most dangerous slogan we've ever heard. How many lives has this cost compared to covid I wonder? All the people who haven't had an early diagnosis or sought treatment because we've been made to feel so bloody guilty for wanting to seek medical advice. Enough is enough.

We don't have enough information yet to know what (if any) difference Omnicron is likely to make.

If it is highly infectious yet mild it could shorten the pandemic considerably. If it is highly infectious and/or vaccine resistant and/or causes similar levels of severe disease as previous variants it could extend the pandemic.

We will just have to wait for the data.

@anne2650

Save the NHS! The most dangerous slogan we've ever heard. How many lives has this cost compared to covid I wonder? All the people who haven't had an early diagnosis or sought treatment because we've been made to feel so bloody guilty for wanting to seek medical advice. Enough is enough.

That is the predictable consequence of keeping the health service so busy with high covid cases that it can't do its usual work.

The government could implement policy that kept covid cases low, but they generally choose not to.

@VikingOnTheFridge

If the new variant is as transmissible as it seems it could be from the Norwegian incident, even if it's very mild it's pretty much certain it's going to cause some deaths. That's inevitable really. The bigger issue is how to manage that, particularly in a context where it would take a lot more than lockdown and masks to control.

Indeed. As we learned with Alpha and then Delta, a new variant being more tranmissible generally leads to more deaths.

And I haven't seen anything I give credence to that suggests it is milder than either of them.

@Userevermore

The bit in the middle could go on for years and we may not see the end in our lifetime

This kind of comment makes me feel so sick 😞

The question, of course, is whether anything can actually be done in this situation.

It is now thought the Russian Flu Pandemic was a Novel Coronavirus outbreak and that took place from October 1889 to December 1890, with recurrences in March to June 1891, November 1891 to June 1892, the northern winter of 1893–1894, and early 1895.

I would say we are probably in the November 1891 to June 1892 - though isn't it how close almost the dates are to our ones with 130 years apart.

Surely though it is positive that then it died down within that time frame?

@VikingOnTheFridge

The question, of course, is whether anything can actually be done in this situation.

What worked for original covid generally also worked for the more transmissible alpha and generally also worked for the more transmissible delta.

So that's our starting point: What has worked before.

"But no way is England going into another lockdown, most people are largely back to very much normal ine"

Back to normal? I don't think so!