Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

The dates reported by the BBC for the pcr issue have now changed and started from 8th September!

The lab failure is a useful reminder that the plural of anecdote is not data - but when there are lots of anomalies it is time to investigate the reliability of your data.

According to this pre-print vaccinated women pass antibodies to their babies www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.12.21264890v1

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54923641

Looks as if its a lab in Wolverhampton that might be a problem.

What I don’t understand about the “infect everyone as quickly as possible” is that we are now seeing people being infected for a second time. In fact the second illness appears to be worse than the first. With this in mind herd immunity makes no sense, what will the third, fourth, fifth illnesses be like?

Re infection is low isn’t it?

Or how is that data collected

I don’t think we are far enough through the pandemic to know the reinfection rate. The cases I have heard of have been roughly 16 months after first infection. Is there any data on this?

@AvoidDairy

What I don’t understand about the “infect everyone as quickly as possible” is that we are now seeing people being infected for a second time. In fact the second illness appears to be worse than the first. With this in mind herd immunity makes no sense, what will the third, fourth, fifth illnesses be like?

I have not seen this about reinfection! Do you have a link to the source.

I thought reinfection was low. Not non existant but not anything of concern.

I have also not seen that reinfection is worse than initial infection.

I do suspect many people suspect the had covid from Dec 19 onwards , but really that's not what it was

The common cold is a coronavirus. Generally with a second infection your T cells remember how to fight it and you start producing antibodies more rapidly, so you may fight it off with no symptoms or it's a milder illness. With covid both milder and more severe infections have been reported.

Anecdotally most are milder infections and this ONS survey seems to confirm that reinfections are rare and usually milder. www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveytechnicalarticleanalysisofreinfectionsofcovid19/june2021

Also www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n124

May be up to 43,000 and mainly SW....from 8th Sep to 12th Oct

Working with the full figure that would increase the overall England figure for that period by 4.6%.

Taking the bulk as being for the SW, for simplicity 40,000 of the total, that increase is a very different proposition - around 49%. Which chimes to some extent with the health graphs I posted the other day.

How these cases were distributed over the approximate five week period we have yet to be told.

Will we see a catch up on the dashboard in due course? Which would tell us more precisely when, where (in terms of council area and presumably down to MSOA) and who in terms of age band. Or will it just be the health metrics that would provide more rough and indicative answers?

As an aside quite how labs get allocated tests to process I’m not sure. Wolverhampton being in the West Mids logically, although logic may not apply, might receive a proportion of West Mids tests. Wolverhampton itself is another area that has a drop the plateau during the period in question.

[quote alreadytaken]The common cold is a coronavirus. Generally with a second infection your T cells remember how to fight it and you start producing antibodies more rapidly, so you may fight it off with no symptoms or it's a milder illness. With covid both milder and more severe infections have been reported.

Anecdotally most are milder infections and this ONS survey seems to confirm that reinfections are rare and usually milder. www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveytechnicalarticleanalysisofreinfectionsofcovid19/june2021[/quote]
I read this, this morning which suggests there are some unknowns. Reinfections are sometimes more severe. What is happening in Iran should give some more clues as there is a high % of reinfections.

Scientific understanding is still evolving.

Also, not all colds are coronaviruses.

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02506-y

fact the second illness appears to be worse than the first

Remember early re-infections are most likely in people who don't mount a significant immune response the first time, one of the reasons for a low immune response is that is all that is needed. This does not mean that each subsequent re-infection would get more worrisome, indeed if it did, it would mean the vaccine would be a real problem as the immune response to vaccine and infection is designed to be similar.

I thought reinfection was low

re-infection in the UK is very low according to the ONS.

I haven’t heard of vaccination causing neurological symptoms like loss of smell though.

AvoidDairy? the reason infection being bad after vaccine or previous infection is that the immune response from both of those is designed to to be the same, the difference is in the effect of the first, not any subsequent ones. If prior infection made symptoms worse, then there's a strong hypothesis that prior vaccination would also make symptoms worse, since the bodies response to the two is the same.

@sirfredfredgeorge

I thought reinfection was low

re-infection in the UK is very low according to the ONS.

In the first wave, unless they were admitted to hospital, and possibly not even then, people with covid generally weren't tested.

So unless they took an antibody test last summer, I would imagine that most people who had covid in the first wave don't know they've had it.

Any lab techs/pathologists here? Wondering if there was an instruction to hurry through the pcr tests and they were not allowed enough time to work? Are they ELISA?

The early abandoning of community testing was heavily criticised in the cross parliamentary report and will certainly come up in the public Enquiry.

We are lacking so much certainty and data about so many things because of most cases not being properly identified in the early days of the Pandemic.

Do other countries have better testing early on?

That should give insight if so

In terms of stopping early here wasn’t it a case of short supply and where it was most needed

Did the report suggest the wrong area was the focus?

ONS data out

1 in 12 secondary age kids have covid this week.

Reinfection rate in Iran reviewed here:

twitter.com/rougematisse/status/1448909737224032261?s=24

@MarshaBradyo

Do other countries have better testing early on?

That should give insight if so

Yes, I think that's why data is coming out of Iran, for example.

@MarshaBradyo

In terms of stopping early here wasn’t it a case of short supply and where it was most needed

Did the report suggest the wrong area was the focus?

I think it says they should basically have ensured supply and said there wasn't a shortage of supply anyway but poor planning. In part it led to the care home scandal.

Yes, I think that's why data is coming out of Iran, for example.

Only Iran? There must be more unless similar issues to here.

I think it says they should basically have ensured supply and said there wasn't a shortage of supply anyway doesn’t this contradict

Does it suggest how to ensure supply

I appreciate the info though it sounds a bit weak (the report not you, I should read it I know)