Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

All the talk of rising cases made me check for my area. Can’t believe it’s still falling (London)

Feels quite different in various areas

@Notmulan

45k cases is high but it might be manageable if hospitalisation doesn’t increase alarmingly . I noticed more people in town today wearing masks this week, many of my colleagues didn’t come In to the hybrid workplace due to colds (negative tests ), I think some of the measures may be self fulfilling

Hospitalisation down today?

Yes re lag so I guess we’ll see in few weeks

But it’s been months of good data on hospitalisation now

Oddly he’s chosen to show a graph by reporting date.

I wonder why he didn’t use specimen date. . As they are the relevant dates.

Let me think.

Perhaps that wouldn’t fit his narrative.

Or perhaps I’m being completely unfair and it’s on his thread somewhere.

Given his track record I’ll go with former.

*lots of people who are CEV (like me) are actively trying to avoid it

we don't particularly fancy playing Russian Roulette with our health

I really don't think "go out there and get yourself infected" was the gameplan*

I really do understand that, and I really do think it's likely sensible (although I do personally think the balance of risks for many should be on getting infected now if you're in robust health as I think it's looking to be the best bet, rather than waiting until you're more frail, particularly as if you're frail enough to be in hospital it could be the same time) but opening up with such a low efficacy vaccines at preventing infection was always going to lead to nearly everyone getting infected, there wasn't any other option.

I also personally think that given that is what we've decided, then it would be better to get as many people infected in a short period, so those people particularly at risk, or particularly nervous, have to "isolate" themselves for a much shorter time before cases are low in their area. But I'm not completely sure if that would be supported in the models, and in reality.

If you recall before opening up, despite my personal biases, I did call for a full lockdown, specifically because I saw these case levels being something so many would worry about.

There was another option though. Open up yes, get all kids back in school yes but WTH allow household members of POSITIVE cases to continue to mix with only a suggestion of getting a pcr test if you feel like it! And then they (the inept government) act surprised and say down the line, when we are by that stage in seriously disruptive measures, "if only we had the benefit if hindsight". Ffs

I thought the point was to get higher cases now rather than later?

twitter.com/kit_yates_maths/status/1448712332104843266?s=21

SW schools have apparently been told by UKHSA to go by LFT results.

@MarshaBradyo

I thought the point was to get higher cases now rather than later?

Quite some gamble though knowing the unpredictability of the timescales of transmission of covid. Some become infected within 1 day of contact but for others it can take 10 days or more. All the while infections are quietly spreading. It doesn't fit neatly into period of time that can be controlled. Do we think that carrying on as we are it will be hunky dorey by December? I hope so.

SW schools have apparently been told by UKHSA to go by LFT results

That requires a change to legislation doesn't it, it's not something that can just be done by diktat?

Well as you can see it just says “advise” and “recommend”, that’s the most they can do isn’t it? I’m glad I’m not a Head having to work out what to do with that advice!

Although the current DfE advice does tell schools to work with local PH?

Quite some gamble though knowing the unpredictability of the timescales of transmission of covid. Some become infected within 1 day of contact but for others it can take 10 days or more. All the while infections are quietly spreading. It doesn't fit neatly into period of time that can be controlled. Do we think that carrying on as we are it will be hunky dorey by December? I hope so.

It’s very patchy and I’m not following areas but here in an SE London borough cases are falling already, so maybe that suggests the peak has passed.

It’s hard to know how far behind other areas are but it does suggest it’s possible. Even now weeks are school return

People in Newbury asked to retest because of some kind of lab problems:

twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1448742398885044224?s=21

People in Newbury asked to retest because of some kind of lab problems:

Interesting! The cases I know of with dubipus test results are Berkshire

This is anecdotal as from another thread on here but it appears schools in certain areas are asking pupils to stay home for 5 days if a household member tests positive. Then they need a negative PCR to be allowed back. Areas names include Cumbria and Cheshire east. I know Cheshire east is quite high up the cases list so it would make sense, but I haven’t seen these extra measures announced in the news or have I missed that story?

If Berkshire are saying the pcr problems are national issue between certain dates surely all other areas should be informed.

Look out for more local PH notices I guess!

Where I am in the SW it feels closer than it's ever been. People in the local nurseries and schools getting it more than ever - mixed with the +LFT/-PCR debacle and allowing family members of clearly symptomatic people to go to school I feel really worried that we're just sitting ducks. Plus people are surely fed up of testing and I assume aren't really doing it regularly unless they've got any symptoms or are actually required to?

@3asAbird

If Berkshire are saying the pcr problems are national issue between certain dates surely all other areas should be informed.

On R4 news saying that Newbury pcr false negatives may effect other areas. Suspect dodgy procurement of pcr tests.

@PatriciaHolm

No, everything in the piece is backed up with a clear reference.

Yes, but at least some of the references in relation to the point he's trying to make are tenuous at best.

For example, the first two reference relate solely to hospitalised adults, with the second specifically referencing the impact on the elderly already suffering with dementia.

Trying to use those as evidence in relation to the impact of Covid on infected children is extremely tenuous.

Thank you for this observation. It helped me bring some balance to my thoughts! I agree they are overstating the concerns. However it bears our we are still at the early stages of understanding the longer term impact, I will remain cautious for now with my children.

Regarding the questions around what we can do if vaccinations are causing breakthrough infections. I think…This immunologist is pro vaccine because of the T cell response is showing as favourable longer term when compared with natural infection. They seem concerned with the most severe infections where organ damage occurs.

They seem concerned about breakthrough infections also and have questions about infection preceding vaccination and if T cell response will be affected positively or not.

I suppose we are soon to find out…

DHSC to make announcement today about what’s happening with the PCR results. Lab problem of some kind. BBC appears not to know that Newbury and W Berkshire are not in the SW!

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58921280

@AvoidDairy

This is anecdotal as from another thread on here but it appears schools in certain areas are asking pupils to stay home for 5 days if a household member tests positive. Then they need a negative PCR to be allowed back. Areas names include Cumbria and Cheshire east. I know Cheshire east is quite high up the cases list so it would make sense, but I haven’t seen these extra measures announced in the news or have I missed that story?

@AvoidDairy

www.cheshireeast.gov.uk/pdf/covid-19/letter-to-parents-and-carers-12-oct-2021.pdf

@AvoidDairy I don't think it's been in the news but it is happening... see letter I've linked above. It's an odd letter because it doesn't set out what should happen where the sibling is within 90 days of a recent infection so can't get a PCR.

[quote JanglyBeads]DHSC to make announcement today about what’s happening with the PCR results. Lab problem of some kind. BBC appears not to know that Newbury and W Berkshire are not in the SW!

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58921280[/quote]
I do believe I was told in this thread, “don’t be surprised when they find nothing wrong.”

As everyone who lives in the SW has said, something is very wrong which means the hallowed data is wrong. Who knew? Sometimes good old anecdotal data gets things looked at.

I also personally think that given that is what we've decided, then it would be better to get as many people infected in a short period, so those people particularly at risk, or particularly nervous, have to "isolate" themselves for a much shorter time before cases are low in their area. But I'm not completely sure if that would be supported in the models, and in reality.*

People at risk can't isolate themselves though (they have to go to work, have children in school, have carers, etc.). And I would worry that everybody catching it quickly would mean overwhelming health services which is what we've been trying to avoid. I know it does seem that the plan is to move to everybody getting infected (not all at once), but I do think for vulnerable people it would be best if they ideally weren't infected at all, or were infected later rather than sooner. Especially as improved treatments are being developed.