Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Only Iran? There must be more unless similar issues to here

What's the mechanism for an average of 4.5 infections per person in Iran and absolutely nothing like that here, still an average considerably less than one, and less than 1% re-infection rate here (50,000 possible re-infections and ~600,000 positive cases identified a year ago) but for the re-infections in that Iran twitter thread to be extendable to here, then the Winter wave would be recent enough which means 50,000 out of 4 million cases.

We need some explanation of why the Iranian data would be more correct than here, the thread talks a lot about "estimated attack rate".

Yes, read the report!

It highlights many major errors made.

Iran was just an example fred. I don't think anything coming out of the UK about reinfection rates would be seen as reliable nationally or internationally, must be honest.

@MarshaBradyo

In terms of stopping early here wasn’t it a case of short supply and where it was most needed

Did the report suggest the wrong area was the focus?

By not putting the covid test into production in January, or at least getting existing labs ready to be test centres and supplied with the chemicals the government created that shortage themselves.

By April/May when they finally looked into it, it was too late.

When did countries such as Italy, France or NYC do community testing?

Maybe Germany was earliest at a guess

I googled but it’s hard to find

Having read the thread doesnt it make the point about the vaccination rate in Iran and that in the age range of the highest vaccination rate had the lowest reinfection rate.

And Iran has a low vaccination rate and was using homegrown ones until it got its first COVAX delivery

One way to check could be the chart for March 2020

Any country that was hit hard in that initial wave but had much lower figures was in the same position as us

This is Italy

@MarshaBradyo

When did countries such as Italy, France or NYC do community testing?

Maybe Germany was earliest at a guess

I googled but it’s hard to find

I remember university labs privately then publicly contacting the U.K. government to offer their testing equipment in February 2020 when covid in northern Italy was on the news every night.

And Milan Fashion Week in February 2020 cancelling runway shows because of covid.

Germany doesn’t look that different but their initial wave may not have been as big as Italy

It still shows a similar pattern to ours

This isn't true. For the last 10 days there has been exponential growth of cases. Graph thanks to Oliver Johnson

This graph does not show exponential growth.

Without actual test results from that first wave how could this understood. Additionally, in the UK at least, the % of people infected 2020 was relatively small and the demographic of infected narrow, compared to this wave due to successive lockdowns and other mitigation’s. Also healthcare and the elderly were hit hard and even when schools were open it was between waves. How much opportunity for reinfection has there been? In any case previous variants didn’t not seem to infect children the way delta is is now. The virus does seem to be virulent and transmissible and widespread in its transmission (age group at least).

…as it mutates, I meant to add.

@Bizawit

This isn't true. For the last 10 days there has been exponential growth of cases. Graph thanks to Oliver Johnson

This graph does not show exponential growth.

You should definitely tell Bristol Uni's Director of Statistics that. He's on Twitter teaching people that exponential growth looks like a straight line on a log scale. @BristOliver.

Have we got the ONS prevalence estimate on here yet.

It's looking very July-ish.

@PrincessNutNuts apologies I missed that it was a log scale.

Either way it’s a stretch to say that as things stand the data shows exponential growth.

@3asAbird

ONS data out

1 in 12 secondary age kids have covid this week.

I’m very much appreciating the flatness of those upper age lines

The other thing with exponential growth is that if the missing cases go back awhile then actually the numbers of the previous weeks would be up and therefore a different growth?

Not much point in adding data to this thread when no-one reads the actual study. Both studies I posted involve people who had had either a positive test or a positive antibody test before their reinfection. If you think that isnt good data explain why. Community testing rates are not terribly relevant when you restrict your study to those who were tested (whether initially or for antibodies).

Meanwhile data from Iran has very wide confidence levels on the attack rate - so wide as to suggest the data are not reliable.

Delta may be more protective against reinfection than infection with an earlier variant because antibodies from Delta neutralise other variants more readily.

*ONS data out

1 in 12 secondary age kids have covid this week.

I’m very much appreciating the flatness of those upper age lines*

That's a lot of sick children not in school.

Apologies already. I will accept that this data is robust. But my comment was more on the failings in community testing and other responses rather than your post No one seems to be reading the cross parliamentary report either whilst excusing/commenting on things to do with government response, to be fair, especially on other boards where people are merrily commenting on that which they have not read!

Ditto the ONS data. I can't see how one can spin 1 in 12 schoolchildren as a flattening...

It is interesting to square the 1 in 12 with the number of children I encounter daily in school with symptoms who are self declaring colds!

@lonelyplanet

*ONS data out

1 in 12 secondary age kids have covid this week.

I’m very much appreciating the flatness of those upper age lines*

That's a lot of sick children not in school.

My Ds was just one of them. Initially I was most nervous about him as he has mild asthma. I’m glad he’s through the other side of it now.

Firstly the flattening was specifically older age groups as I said. This is good.

Secondly, the community testing in other countries is relevant.

Last two lines re subsequent post

@Bizawit

Either way it’s a stretch to say that as things stand the data shows exponential growth.

It really isn't. For the last 11 days the average seven day case rates are clearly exponential.

@Bizawit

Either way it’s a stretch to say that as things stand the data shows exponential growth.

And yet the stats professor says that's what a straight line means on a log scale...

@alreadytaken
‘Delta may be more protective against reinfection than infection with an earlier variant because antibodies from Delta neutralise other variants more readily.’

What do you base this hope on? Are not antibodies more specific to a variant and T cell response is where we want to see higher sustained levels? This is where vaccines seem to be helpful, no? Hence Iran vax age group faring better regarding reinfection and subsequent waves.