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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

999 replies

boys3 · 26/09/2021 17:54

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Our STUDIES Cornerwww.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

OP posts:
Thread gallery
200
flowerycurtain · 08/10/2021 11:49

This is anecdotal not data but out of my kids year group of 40 there are 31 cases. Replicated in other year groups too.

I suspect our school cohort is the type to test. I wonder how much this is repeated across the country in areas where there is a lot less testing.

herecomesthsun · 08/10/2021 11:53

I meant that getting flu and covid together is supposed to increase the chance of people having a bad bout of illness.

Flu can potentially be dangerous for some children, I was wondering what effect the combo is likely to have (I suspect we will be finding out over the winter).

MarshaBradyo · 08/10/2021 11:55

We’ve already had flu vaccine for dc here so maybe will help if take up happens

JanglyBeads · 08/10/2021 11:56

Wow flowery!!

Ah OK here. The government (maybe CMO - who we haven’t heard anything from recently!) said they were concerned about combined cases this winter, yes.

herecomesthsun · 08/10/2021 11:59

Yes, I hope they get good coverage before flu season. Hopefully children would also be less hard hit than adults by a flu/ covid combo, but I'd rather they were protected, really.

NuttyinNotts · 08/10/2021 12:02

School nasal flu spray clinics are being cancelled in some areas to prioritise the covid vaccine for secondaries though.

JanglyBeads · 08/10/2021 12:04

Ye gods, Shapps is replacing Day 2 incoming traveller PCR tests with LFTs:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58838682

lonelyplanet · 08/10/2021 12:15

[quote JanglyBeads]Ye gods, Shapps is replacing Day 2 incoming traveller PCR tests with LFTs:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58838682[/quote]
That would be really foolish as new variants would not be picked up early.

lonelyplanet · 08/10/2021 12:22

Latest ons data is out. They estimate 6.9% of children in school years 7 to 11 tested positive in the week up to 2nd October. That's 1 in 14. In a week. On the upside (for those of you who think gaining herd immunity in this manner is a good idea), this is a 14 week term so everyone should have had it by Christmas.

lonelyplanet · 08/10/2021 12:22

Here's the graphs.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021
JanglyBeads · 08/10/2021 12:25

Wow lonely

JanglyBeads · 08/10/2021 12:26

(That’s “would have tested positive” obviously, isn’t it - we’re talking ONS estimates here.)

MarshaBradyo · 08/10/2021 12:30

@lonelyplanet

Latest ons data is out. They estimate 6.9% of children in school years 7 to 11 tested positive in the week up to 2nd October. That's 1 in 14. In a week. On the upside (for those of you who think gaining herd immunity in this manner is a good idea), this is a 14 week term so everyone should have had it by Christmas.
Is that the highest it’s been? I guess so, however given what’s going on around me and how infectious Delta is I’m not surprised.

But would you halve that if supposedly half children have already had it?

oneglassandpuzzled · 08/10/2021 12:30

I don’t often comment here but, OMG.

MarshaBradyo · 08/10/2021 12:41

Also that’s with no increase - so same next week, but wouldn’t it get higher then peak?

herecomesthsun · 08/10/2021 12:49

For how long does positive status persist with the ONS survey?

I think that this could potentially go higher (looking at the shape of that curve) but is likely to rumble on for some time, as pockets of kids get exposed.

Also, previously shielded kids are now being forced back into schools as increasing pressure is put on parents to send them in, not great if kids can't be vaccinated for any reason.

Without wanting to be alarmist, it is concerning. And sad, as we could some easily have rolled out vaccines to kids in a timely way, with a bit of concerted effort.

JanglyBeads · 08/10/2021 12:51

Interestingly, 1 in 14 is the number in that age group (Y7-11) who actually tested positive in Kettering the previous week….. at the time Kettering had the highest infection rate in the country.

The ONS rate presumably allows for immunity from previous infection because those in its sample group must include some previously infected too. Their estimates are extrapolated from real data.

(Sorry, can’t think of the correct scientific terms but hope that makes sense.)

JanglyBeads · 08/10/2021 12:55

To answer here’s question re flu earlier

“The public are being reminded to come forward for their flu jab to maximise their protection ahead of winter.

Health officials are worried because this will be the first winter Covid and flu circulate fully at the same time.

Research shows those infected with both viruses are more than twice as likely to die as someone with Covid alone.”

From here:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58836218

Lalalablahblahblah · 08/10/2021 13:02

This reply has been withdrawn

Message from MNHQ: This post has been withdrawn

JanglyBeads · 08/10/2021 13:30

Just seen someone (anonymous but links to Kit Yates’ threads) suggesting the SW concentration of the neg PCR issues could link back to the lab at Southmead and a sudden fall in cases and positivity weeks ago - I remember someone here (I think) spotting that? In Bristol figures.
Going back to early August I think.

JanglyBeads · 08/10/2021 13:32

Sorry it was from here:
twitter.com/fascinatorfun/status/1446097819597746182?s=21

wintertravel1980 · 08/10/2021 13:44

lonelyplanet - there is an important nuance that I was trying to convey (unsuccessfully). Of course, there is significant spread in school that amplifies community transmission and, of course, with most 17-25 year olds getting infected over summer most of the infections are now in schoolchildren.

However - I am not trying to analyse absolute case levels. What has puzzled me is an unusual significant (12-15%) spike reported this week. Schools have been open since early September and what we have seen so far is the continuous stable increase of cases. One off material jump appears to suggest a super spreading event - it simply does not fit the previous September pattern. It is highly unlikely that so many children infected their parents over a specific time period (starting from September 30) - spillover into the 40-49 age group was also happening at a slow steady pace.

I am absolutely not convinced I am right - it is only a hypothesis. More importantly, I am definitely not trying to “blame” cinemagoers. In fact, I really dislike the use of word “blame”. Covid is a virus. It spreads. Many people I know IRL who have been extremely careful throughout the pandemic ended up getting infected. Others were willing to take more risks but still managed to avoid it. It appears to be a combination of luck and strength of our immune system. The cinemagoers did nothing wrong and I would’ve probably joined them in my childfree days. Now I am more likely to go to a morning premier of a Disney movie (at least for a few years).

wintertravel1980 · 08/10/2021 14:05

Re: safety in cinemas

Yes, they are well ventilated but ventilation reduces the risk. It doesn’t eliminate it completely. The Bond film lasts 2 3/4 hours (probably 3 hours with commercials). People are also likely to use (and queue?) for bathrooms, go out for a meal or a drink before/after the movie, socialise with friends. Based on the reported box office numbers, people did adjust their behaviour for the first few days for the premier and it might have had an impact on the transmission. Again, it is only a hypothesis and we should know more by the start of next week.

For now it is likely we will see another sizeable number reported today.

JanglyBeads · 08/10/2021 14:12

The ventilation point made by piggy was to point up the difference between statutorily well ventilated venues and every school building. Some classrooms have no opening windows.