Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@JanglyBeads

(That’s “would have tested positive” obviously, isn’t it - we’re talking ONS estimates here.)

Well, this is an interesting point. If the ONS says this and yet cases in young people are plateauing apparently or even descending, this means there are an awful lot wandering around untested? Which fits with my experiences of being in school for the last two weeks surrounded by clearly unwell children or children who take one day off and return.

I’m lost now on what is meant by it

1 in 14 means now doesn’t it - in that age a group - allowing for any lag

The Indie SAGE broadcast gave a much lower figure for infections in 10-14s and suggested they were falling!

So maybe the distinction is between incidence (new infections) and prevalence (total number of infections in the community). Incidence falling would be really good (if that is what is happening)

@JanglyBeads

(That’s “would have tested positive” obviously, isn’t it - we’re talking ONS estimates here.)

Yes! Sorry

The ons estimates are based on people who have been tested in that week in their samples. There is lag as they are from the week up to 2nd October. The increase in this age group though is quite dramatic as the previous week it was 4.6%. Let's hope it peaks soon.

The PCR negatives issue has made it onto the main BBC news, along with quoted advice to act as if it’s Covid:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-58841259

Indie Sage must be using “official numbers” which have got a 4 days cut off period. They indeed suggest that cases in schoolchildren plateaued and may be falling.

The period of ambiguity (the new spike) in boys3 graph has not yet been picked up by either iSage or ONS. It started on Oct 3 (by date of specimen) and jumped again on Oct 4. The cases are now going up. It is not just England - all the 3 nations are seeing some sort of week on week spike.

36k today but no including data from Wales so looks like we're heading up!

I wonder if though the lack of testing on the 1st has changed things - in that it gave an artifical drop at the start of the week which looks like it is heading up.

The comparisons to me between the 1/2nd October and the week before show a drop the other days around dont. Which then leads to an increase.

I am sure more data minded people can correct or confirm but I think it is actually fairly stable just the way the testing dropped on the 1st has caused this

oh yes had forgottten about that mysterious drop that day.

I just thought, if a spike had resulted from everyone going to the cinema, wouldn't that show in the ONS survey under 'Activity mentioned in the two (?) days before testing positive' section? I checked and that section is not in this week's report! Have they stopped showing that?

I am also looking at the positive numbers by date of specimen so they would not be impacted by the testing figures reported for Oct 1 (FWIW - I think the very low total reported on the dashboard simply omits LFTs).

The case graph generally looks consistent - it is not obvious that there were any numbers omitted from the previous week. However, reporting issue is certainly a plausible explanation.

Yes, I also remember reports on “activities prior to positive testing” but I have not seen them for a while. Also, those reports are produced with a significant time lag. The most recent spike is not yet fully in the official numbers so even if the ONS report is eventually published, we are unlikely to see it until next Thursday-Friday.

Whilst winter’s cinema hypothesis is undoubtedly interesting I struggle to see any data, anywhere, that starts to back it up.

Unless there are significant swathes of the country that are cinema free

Cases from Monday of this week to date are in England up 13.6% as compared with the same point last week. 101,209 vs 89,063

There is considerable regional variability

North East up 30%; 5337 vs 4092

North West up 21%; 15684 vs 12951

In contrast

West Midlands up a more modest 5%; 11806 vs 10838

At council level urban areas such as Nottingham, Leicester, Wolverhampton; Swindon, Hull, Kirklees; Bournemouth; Coventry; Derby; Doncaster; plus a number of London Boroughs all have fewer cases.

Likewise most of West Sussex, Somerset; Corby, Daventry and Kettering in Northamptonshire; half of Norfolk including Norwich; most of Leicestershire bits of Lancashire, Kent and Hampshire.

On the far bigger flip side Trafford stands out as the sore thumb 1042 v 641.

Then places like

the Wirral 623 v 409

Warrington 601 v 411

Stoke 638 v 443

Peterborough 575 v 415

East Riding 772 v 592

Dudley 677 v 524

Cheshire West 780 v 636

I live in one of the areas that have had a drop, and imo its a major drop and a lot of people are having a positive LFTs but neg PCR including my dd.
It's rather strange as all the family have tested neg on LFTS only my dd had a positive.
And she has done 5 now 3 from different batches and 1 was the newer LFTS.
Dd now has a cough,sore throat and a headache, and has been near at least 2+ positive children.

karma have you seen the BBC England article quoting a DPH's advice to act as if it's covid even if PCR(s) are negative? Linked upthread.

My dd is in isolation in her room, I've got a home PCR booked so hopefully will get that tomorrow so I can check again.
I just find it really strange, the odd positive that is wrong maybe.
But 5 all on different days out of different packs.

DD (who is unwell and symptomatic) as tested neg on LF all week as have I (bit 'off' but not properly unwell). Awaiting postal pcr. Her best mate has had several positive LF and also awaiting PCR results. They are joined at the hip and both ill at exactly the same time so it's odd really. I don't think we will carry on with LF after this just do PCR when unwell. LF just seen too random.

Meanwhile I have seen at least one scientific type on twitter saying the recent PCR issues have given him more faith in LFDs!

Unless there are significant swathes of the country that are cinema free

So for there to be a jump, it requires a susceptible population to exposed en masse via some way - that can't happen simultaneously across a whole new load of schools, there's no reason for a sudden growth in the number of schools - unless there's some sort of trigger for it (school sports, some sort of weird exchange programme - nothing adds up) And it happening in all nations is relevant to it needing to be a trigger unrelated to schools.

The trigger doesn't need to be nationwide, as we still have the existing immunity and levels in the area increasing/decreasing the chance of there being superspreaders.

I'm going to look at the cinemas still just to see, so for example, Trafford has one massive 20 screen cinema, everyone's at that one, Swindon has three smaller cinemas with at most six screens, Warrington one cinema, Nottingham 3 cinemas... so maybe the chance of infection was simply lower, due to the audience being spread out more.

Kit Yates's mathematical ponderings about the possible reasons for pos LFTs followed by neg PCRs:

theconversation.com/covid-why-are-people-testing-positive-on-lateral-flow-tests-then-negative-on-pcr-169502

@JanglyBeads thanks that article is very interesting and explained in a way I can get my head around.

But isnt the trigger for this increase in cases the fact that lots of people have been testing negative on PCRs when actually positive? So they are all going about their business - as they’ve been told to - including going to school and the cinema.

Plus we have the “cold” going round that “is definitely not covid”. I just think that all these people going round acting as normal while positive are the superspreaders

But I am now informed by a mathematician friend that Kit Yates' explanation is not credible....

But isnt the trigger for this increase in cases the fact that lots of people have been testing negative on PCRs when actually positive?

There's little way that could lead to a sudden jump, it would be a gradual rise, not a step change.

I have a terrible cold. I have had a negative PCR and three negative LFTs.
Am I a superspreader?

Sounds like you need to start your own thread Hendricks!

My friend says it's not happening randomly enough for it to be just a statistical effect, eg repeatedly to the same individual or to individuals in the same household