Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Do we just let pupils go into school with covid then like they would if they had a cold? I think the length of isolation could be shortened, with 10 days plus the day of testing they are missing up to 9 days of school.

Anecdotal again, but where we are cases in schools are higher than ever, and showing no sign of slowing. Seems odd that the national picture is so different for this age group? Could the issue under investigation (possible false negatives in PCR testing, often following positive LFT and/or symptoms and known close contact) be masking 'true' rates? I should know this, but is the drop in cases amongst this age group reflected in ONS data?

@wintertravel1980

boys3 - do you happen to have the latest case data broken down by age group (for England)?

England’s cases jumped by 12% week on week on the reported basis. This sort of spike might suggest a series of super spreading events happening universally across the country and potentially across age groups (?).

I am wondering if the numbers for yesterday and today have got anything to do with the highly successful launch of the new Bond movie:

www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-58758854

The timing seems to work - the film opened on Thursday (September 30) and took nearly £5million on the first day. It must have been popular…

I have to start by saying reported cases chocolate teapots At least you could eat the latter :)

This is just England. 7 day case rate is............unremarkable. It's pretty much the same now (as calculated to Monday, and using the age band numbers) as it was the previous Monday, actually marginally lower and little different to that to Monday 8th September.

Mondays are serious peaks. Monday just gone higher than lthe previous Monday which in turn higher than the Monday before that.

Tuesdays though? Tuesday just gone remains to be seen. However cases on Tuesday 28th lower than Tuesday 21st, not by much but lower. In contrast to the Monday increase between the two weeks. Cases the trail of as each week progresses, until Sunday comes and its "school (or maybe work as well) tomorrow, let's test!

The second graphic shows the breakdown by broad age group on each Monday. Taking the last three Mondays no particularly large movements.

Some changes in the parental age groups; however the changes are limited as compared with the jump in the 10-14s. Around 27-29% of cases on each of the past three Mondays as compared with 19% and 14% in the two prior weeks.

Finally the 7 day rates per 100,000 for the four youngest groups. 10-14s a re still comfortably more than double the next highest group; although do, as suggested a couple of days ago possibly looked to have peaked. But still stand at over 1400 case per 100,000.

Whilst it will continue to go up in schools, the sudden change in positive PCR only tests reported yesterday across the whole of the UK including Scotland where schools went back a long time ago now does not fit with the sudden increase. It also doesn't explain why it's PCR only - this is from a population who are not doing regular LFD's, I can't see how it can be schools.

The Cinema is a great call, explains the universality of it, fits with huge new groups visiting the cinema - www.screendaily.com/news/no-time-to-die-produces-stunning-259m-opening-to-top-uk-ireland-box-office/5163899.article shows that the numbers the bond film did is completely different, first rise was 3 days after the weekend - so just as symptoms would appear so matching the reason why it's PCR only.

I like the hypothesis - We'd need the age breakdown being mostly in the bond watching age groups (30-50 year old men?) to show it.

@JanglyBeads she's neg on LF as were all her friends. I just did a pcr as she has a cough and temp and seems so ill, and I have it but so much less badly. Expecting it to be a neg pcr as this is the thing that everyone seems to have in her year and she's only heard of a few positives amongst all the ill kids

Piggy he’s ok now after the week, had symptoms but not too bad. He did have a Pfizer dose a while back though no idea if it changed outcome. How are you? I think you mentioned feeling rotten (apols if it was someone else)

Weirdly dd and I have something else similar but negative PCR. So it wasn’t spread in household

Slight personal diversion!

School cases interesting. Scotland peaked and we should but what proportion will get it before we do I wonder

Our school have been told that since they have clusters in all years they have to do lfts in school again. This results in pupils who may not have been getting round to doing their twice weekly tests, testing positive and then being sent for PCRs. So the increase could be partly down to schools having been back for long enough for this to happen across multiple schools.

Feeling a bit better marsha. Still very lacking in energy but worst of stuff is gone.

Graphics for:

20-39s - clear difference between the 20-29s and the 30-39s. Latter far more likely to have school age children.

40-59s - 40-49s in particular stand out

60-79s

Blueshoe there were around a million off in mid July, yes, off the top of my head.

The Bond film makes an interesting theory but could it really be responsible for THAT large a rise in infections? However I have no idea how many audiences and of what average size those box office figures translate to.

the sudden change in positive PCR only test

@sirfredfredgeorge perhaps I'm having a very senior moment but where are you seeing this sudden change?

The picture for pure PCR percentage of positive cases in England looks to me to be very consistent with nothing out of the ordinary that I can see for the start of this week.

As I say the senior moment is a distinct possibility.

However I have no idea how many audiences and of what average size those box office figures translate to

"Playing in 772 locations, No Time To Die achieved an astonishing average of £27,231 per location" The average cinema price in 2020 was 6.75, now I'm sure this would be more, less discounted etc. but I don't think many places would be charging more then 15, and you have people with passes. But that looks like over a million people however you slice it up, all indoors, poorly ventilated no masks for 3 hours.

@boys3 I must be completely wrong looking at that, but is that LFD on date reported, as the disappearing false positives change the numbers, when I looked yesterday the number of LFD's appeared not to go up in line with the big jump in PCR's, although that doesn't show it for sure.

Nearly nine million schoolchildren in the UK, none vaccinated until recently, in crowded classrooms with poor or no ventilation for six hours a day, five days a week, mostly unmasked, travelling to and from school on school buses and other public transport with children from multiple other schools, in close and sometimes near-intimate physical contact (Y10 lockers anyone?), often unconcerned about the risk of infection and involved in many after school clubs in different locations again in close contact with children from other schools - versus one million adults, many or most of whom are probably vaccinated, together in a cinema with decent ventilation for three hours on one occasion.
There’s no comparison.

Cinemas have to be well ventilated by law...

I do think some posters on here are living (along with the government and most of the media) in a parallel universe. Trying to blame the current high cases on a few cinema goers, when from boys data approximately 50% of cases are in the under 19s, is frankly ridiculous. If there is an increase in the 30-40 age group it is far more likely to have come from household transmission passed on by children. At what point will some people accept that schools might be a problem? Anecdotal but 20% of my class has been off all this week (Y6). This is unheard of in normal times. In my opinion this is just the start as most parents are still not testing their primary aged children.

I don’t see why delta wouldn’t spread pretty quickly in schools atm

For some reason mitigations did hold it off until now in year group here (I’m actually more surprised by this than it transmitting at higher rate now.)

But I do wonder how long it will take to peak. Maybe one could compare numbers in Scotland to England to get a view.

I've been thinking about Jan's article and the apparently rising number of people claiming positive lfts and negative pcrs. One possibility might be a new variant but how would we know? The sampling of variants come from positive pcrs. This could also potentially skew hospital data if people have covid but are testing negative? Just thoughts.

My hunch is that spread in secondary schools will be quite lumpy and potentially peter on for several months, especially in areas that haven't had a lot of spread so far. I think vaccination will help reduce the impact of that.

Also, I am wondering about the flu-covd combo. Does anyone know any data on how that might affect under 18s?

Good article here with new graphs re schoolchildren:

inews.co.uk/news/education/covid-cases-schools-two-tier-pandemic-children-1236187?fbclid=IwAR2jbpPBas4mf0HV6DS72y61i6UBKmAdnQxfEbg5gvsaRFiyCG5YPJIISlU

@herecomesthesun "Also, I am wondering about the flu-covd combo. Does anyone know any data on how that might affect under 18s?"

Do you mean flu/covid combo vaccination or infection? I've been wondering about flu/covid infections for a while. So many kids are chesty and run down from all the other bugs just now. Presume it's worse if they get two things at once but waiting to see if anyone has any data.

here had just mentioned vaccination so I think that’s what flu/Covid combo referred to.

Yes lonely, obviously if the phenomenon is the result of a new variant which evades normal PCR tests there would be all kinds of implications in all kinds of directions.

With the LFT and PCR are people doing the LFT when asymptomatic or not. Because if they are with symptoms perhaps the LFT picks up other viruses.

PCR tests for specifically the COVID virus do LFT do the same?

Quartz if the LFT picked up other viruses too (which I don’t think I’ve ever heard it does, but anyway) there would be a much higher rate of false positives!

LFDs look for Covid antigens. Good explanation of all tests here

www.rcpath.org/profession/coronavirus-resource-hub/guide-to-covid-19-tests-for-members-of-the-public.html