Will there be another lockdown

[Doublethecars]

In November time?

Since the schools have been back

No - the current spike started before schools were back, with the highest rates in people in their early 20s.

@lostinacloud you are spot on. Lather, rinse, repeat.

@Hairwizard

They can fuck the fuck off. No compliance here. Fucked that off after 1st one. Problem is we have been suckered into this never ending merry go round and set a precedent. Lockdown/fire breaker ( who the fuck even coined that fucking stupid name for it) wont work. Enough is enough. Time we all said no. Should be left to individuals to assess their own risk. Bojo and co can fuck off. *@Lostinacloud* well said btw.

But people don't get to assess their own risk. People have to go to work. People need to go to the GP because they're ill. Some are unable to secure a supermarket delivery and have go brave the shops. In each of these places we will have people whose risk assessment is as good as a newborns. This is why lockdowns and restrictions may need to happen.

Have any of you "I will not comply"-people ever taken a moment to think that maybe, just maybe, you and your ilk are a massive part of the problem?

Have any of you "I will not comply"-people ever taken a moment to think that maybe, just maybe, you and your ilk are a massive part of the problem?

National compliance has been really high with all previous lockdowns. It might be comforting to think that the pandemic’s only still going because of people not doing as they’re told, and if only we all behaved well enough covid would go away, but that doesn’t seem very accurate.

Have any of you "I will not comply"-people ever taken a moment to think that maybe, just maybe, you and your ilk are a massive part of the problem?

Lockdowns and blanket restrictions don’t work. If they did, we’d not have to go through them again and again.

@GoldenOmber

Have any of you "I will not comply"-people ever taken a moment to think that maybe, just maybe, you and your ilk are a massive part of the problem?

National compliance has been really high with all previous lockdowns. It might be comforting to think that the pandemic’s only still going because of people not doing as they’re told, and if only we all behaved well enough covid would go away, but that doesn’t seem very accurate.

I agree with that. I think it's more of the 'If only we wear masks in Tesco's we can avoid another lockdown' thinking.

As you say, compliance has been very high, well above expectations. But if people haven't 'complied' until now, what makes anything think that will change now that we have vaccines and we're 19 months into this? Not much point finger wagging at this stage in proceedings.

@GoldenOmber

Have any of you "I will not comply"-people ever taken a moment to think that maybe, just maybe, you and your ilk are a massive part of the problem?

National compliance has been really high with all previous lockdowns. It might be comforting to think that the pandemic’s only still going because of people not doing as they’re told, and if only we all behaved well enough covid would go away, but that doesn’t seem very accurate.

No, it won't go away, but cases will be lower and the level of crisis the NHS is in will be less.

The problem right now is that people think that the fact Boris isn't restricting our movements means it's all a good idea and safe. It isn't. If you want to avoid national restrictions, start restricting yourselves a little. You can't have it all right now.

@UsedUpUsername

Have any of you "I will not comply"-people ever taken a moment to think that maybe, just maybe, you and your ilk are a massive part of the problem?

Lockdowns and blanket restrictions don’t work. If they did, we’d not have to go through them again and again.

Er, well that’s a daft statement. It’s impossible to eradicate a virus like this, and so lockdowns just attempt to lower the spread and numbers so that it’s possible for the health service to cope. There is no way you can eradicate it or stop it spreading in a large population (is that what you mean by “work”?) All the lockdowns / measures are designed to do is suppress the peaks so that you don’t get thousands of people dying without access to medical care and collapse of the hospital system. Without them, the situation would be a lot worse and a lot less manageable.

From this statement alone, it sounds like you don’t understand much about epidemiology or viruses, or really understand why the lockdowns and restrictions exist. I can assure you the economy would have collapsed to a much greater extent if we hadn’t had them!

No one on here can say wether there will be another lockdown or not, i think there will only be another lockdown IF cases start to overwhelm the NHS again
There has always been an element of people who wont comply with restrictions, but i think most people will, IF things start to look scary again, people say the government cant stop them from mixing with family members and friends and no they cant, but they can only do that if family members and friends want to mix with them, what people say and actually do can be very different

Have any of you "I will not comply"-people ever taken a moment to think that maybe, just maybe, you and your ilk are a massive part of the problem?

Yes, which is how I know what an inaccurate claim that is. However comforting a coping strategy it might be for some of you.

If you want to avoid national restrictions, start restricting yourselves a little. You can't have it all right now.

This is a meaningless statement though. What does "restricting yourselves a little" even mean? And you have no idea of any of our lifestyles so maybe we're already 'restricting ourselves'?

Also, what evidence is there that 'restricting ourselves a little' - however that be defined - is going to have any significant impact?

As I said above, I think it's wishful thinking. If we're 'good', then all will be OK.

I think that compliance with any voluntary restrictions will be very low - and therefore pointless

People will only comply now if it’s compulsory - and even then fewer people will comply than previously

I think we just need to ride it out

Er, well that’s a daft statement. It’s impossible to eradicate a virus like this, and so lockdowns just attempt to lower the spread and numbers so that it’s possible for the health service to cope

You don’t need lockdowns to accomplish that, actually.

There is no way you can eradicate it or stop it spreading in a large population

Exactly.

All the lockdowns / measures are designed to do is suppress the peaks so that you don’t get thousands of people dying without access to medical care and collapse of the hospital system. Without them, the situation would be a lot worse and a lot less manageable

Again, you could accomplish the same without a blanket approach.

Focussed protection does much the same without treating healthy people like a disease vector.

From this statement alone, it sounds like you don’t understand much about epidemiology or viruses, or really understand why the lockdowns and restrictions exist

Really, are you an expert in this area? You act as if the science is settled here and it is not. Arrogant to think you do.

I can assure you the economy would have collapsed to a much greater extent if we hadn’t had them!

I don’t think you can, actually.

No it’s not going away but vaccines didn’t create the herd immunity we need to bring the cycle to an end and so people need to catch it - which is what they actually said right at the very start, before the whole world decided to abandon the sensible and previously accepted idea of quarantining actual ill people and had a go at copying China by locking down the entire population, ill, vulnerable or not.
What better time, if that’s how it has to be, than immediately after the vast majority of adults are vaccinated and over 50% of children already have antibodies before vaccine protection apparently starts to fade - Israel already speaking of a 4th dose and many other countries preparing to booster with a 3rd.
The alternative is that we end up in an eternal cycle and drag the whole thing out for many years rather than just getting it over with while population protection is high because the final route to the outcome is the same.

The ‘non-compilers’ amongst us have been able to see this for months and know that by complying once again we will be locked down until the 3rd vaccine. Then cases rise and we need to lockdown before the 4th vaccine etc.

What we should all really be spending our collective time on is pressuring the government to build a robust health system that can actually support winter respiratory disease season and the ever growing and ageing population.

The problem right now is that people think that the fact Boris isn't restricting our movements means it's all a good idea and safe. It isn't. If you want to avoid national restrictions, start restricting yourselves a little. You can't have it all right now.

Yep.

People need to start realising that our government only takes action when it is too late, and instead start to take matters into their own hands.

Wear a mask, socially distance, don't mix indoors, avoid non-essential travel.

Just because Johnson says everything's fine doesn't mean it is.

Whenever I read threads like this I still always think of the times people lived through great global upheavals and disasters in the twentieth century for instance - and how those often involved destitution, violence, death, mass rape, fleeing from social collapse and devastation caused by war, tsunamis, earthquakes, famine… and then I think about how our version of that is basically sitting on the sofa watching Netflix, not getting the online shopping deliveries I want and not being able to see auntie Mabel for Christmas; and I feel pretty glad I’m not having to flee from gang rape from Soviet soldiers or the collapse of my home after an atomic bomb, or enduring rationing for years or getting malnutrition or Ebola or similar.

I mean the lockdowns are shit and it’s hell homeschooling my DD and I’m depressed and hate it as much as anyone, but as times of historical strife go, it’s not exactly that bad, and we could all do with a bit of perspective to be honest.

@IcedPurple

If you want to avoid national restrictions, start restricting yourselves a little. You can't have it all right now.

This is a meaningless statement though. What does "restricting yourselves a little" even mean? And you have no idea of any of our lifestyles so maybe we're already 'restricting ourselves'?

Also, what evidence is there that 'restricting ourselves a little' - however that be defined - is going to have any significant impact?

As I said above, I think it's wishful thinking. If we're 'good', then all will be OK.

It means don't go see your friends and family indoors, it means don't go to the supermarket every other day but do a weekly big shop, work from home if you can, get takeaway instead of dining in, walk, cycle or drive instead of going on the bus. I don't know why you're acting dumb?

Restrictions and lockdowns work. They don't eradicate, but that's never been the idea anyway. The idea here is to prevent the NHS from collapsing, for all of our benefit.
However, the "I will not comply"-people tend to be the same people that think they or anyone the love won't ever need the NHS.

Ok, so we're worried about NHS beds. Some NHS beds are occupied by people waiting to go into the care sector. The care sector already does not have enough staff. The government has decreed that they must sack unvaccinated staff. The care sector will have even less staff.

We could end up with over-full hospitals, in part because of the government's no jab, no job policy in care. This would definitely not be a reason to go into lockdown (but I bet some people would think it was).

I don't think a lockdown as such but a reintroduction of some restrictions such as travel and WFH etc

No, it won't go away, but cases will be lower but cases will be lower and the level of crisis the NHS is in will be less.

Will they actually to any useful degree, though? It seems that delta is transmissible enough that relatively minor restrictions like this really don’t do much to reduce or slow cases down.

England currently has just over 300 cases per 100k population. Scotland - with masks, with mitigations in schools, with WFH still - has nearly 800.

Delta is just really effective at finding all the susceptible people it can, and it will clearly take more than masks and WFH to turn that around before it’s gone through enough of them that it runs out of new people to infect.

I wish people would just come out and say what they actually think. "I don't think anyone I care about is at risk from this virus and I am cool with other people dying".

It means don't go see your friends and family indoors, it means don't go to the supermarket every other day but do a weekly big shop, work from home if you can, get takeaway instead of dining in, walk, cycle or drive instead of going on the bus. I don't know why you're acting dumb?

And I don't know why you're acting so aggressively.

This isn't 'restricting yourself a little'. Well, very likely it is for you, hence your air of superiority, but for many, these are pretty major. Happily, none of them are legally required and your ability to do anything about that is zero.

@JesusIsAnyNameFree

I wish people would just come out and say what they actually think. "I don't think anyone I care about is at risk from this virus and I am cool with other people dying".

Because that's just what you think.

It will only ever be managed by rolling boosters anyway - that’s been accepted from the start. Herd immunity is a concept that doesn’t really make any genuine sense outside vaccination programmes, and it’s always been a complete red herring - you never get genuine “herd immunity” with a wild virus, especially a high-mutation one - otherwise we’d never need vaccinations in the first place, logically.

(Think about it - why would we need measles vaccinations, given that before then most people caught measles in childhood? And measles is a very stable virus which remains essentially the same over a long time. Even with a low-mutation virus you don’t ever achieve genuine “herd immunity” outside of a vaccination programme. All you get if you leave it to circulate naturally is a slightly higher level of population immunity, but that isn’t the same and never eradicates it.)

@JesusIsAnyNameFree

I wish people would just come out and say what they actually think. "I don't think anyone I care about is at risk from this virus and I am cool with other people dying".

^^ This this.