Will there be another lockdown

[Doublethecars]

In November time?

@NannyAndJohn I have asked you many questions you haven’t answered and I think you will find I have answered it that yes in my opinion in order to have an effective lockdown you would need a strict one but the social economic/political/geographical/cultural landscape we live in means that’s impossible. Anything else just artificially suppresses to buy you time

@Thewiseoneincognito and @PrincessNutNuts yes we need to develop a coherent strategy in order to manage are way through but not at the expense of industries that won’t come back

Interestingly though I think this thread really does show that no one agrees there are a few posters I share no opinions with and others who I strongly agree with on some points and disagree with on others. I think it’s reflective of wider society

@Dghgcotcitc I’m not too sure what your post means it’s a little incoherent but I can assure I’m not advocating for an end to the performing arts or music.

I’m simply saying those particular venue types in their current form are not compatible with a Covid world. We will have to adapt our approach to them which is not going to be an overnight fix but will take some time to understand how we can still deliver the experience in a safer way.

@Jourdain11 close school for year? You can not be serious. I will just phone my work and say I won’t be turning up for a year. So can hundreds of thousands of others parents.

[quote Quartz2208]@NannyAndJohn I have asked you many questions you haven’t answered and I think you will find I have answered it that yes in my opinion in order to have an effective lockdown you would need a strict one but the social economic/political/geographical/cultural landscape we live in means that’s impossible. Anything else just artificially suppresses to buy you time

@Thewiseoneincognito and @PrincessNutNuts yes we need to develop a coherent strategy in order to manage are way through but not at the expense of industries that won’t come back

Interestingly though I think this thread really does show that no one agrees there are a few posters I share no opinions with and others who I strongly agree with on some points and disagree with on others. I think it’s reflective of wider society[/quote]
Since we opened up on July 19th covid numbers have risen sharply, dropped back down and started rising again.

This tells us that what we do affects whether covid numbers rise or fall.

And that's good news.

We are not powerless.

Our fate is in our own hands.

We can choose to do what is necessary to reduce the chaos and death - or not.

I would prefer a proactive covid strategy designed to keep numbers low.... (8 covid deaths a day May 2021 kind of low.)

....To this boom or bust "Open up, let numbers build to unsustainable levels, close everything down again for months" havoc.

Not least because a lot fewer lives and livelihoods are lost in my plan.

Maybe theatres etc would prefer only being fully open for four or five months a year to being open all year but with HEPA filters, masks, and social distancing etc?

I dunno.

But personally, I'd take full years of April-May 2021 life over years of constant covid chaos.

@Jourdain11

Now, I know you're joking right?

[quote LookAtMoiPloise]@Jourdain11

Now, I know you're joking right?[/quote]
You know right 😂

@Dghgcotcitc

Aww yes “industries are incompatible with covid”. We can Get rid of theatre and live music it will be fine right?

Just to note the Greeks and the Romans had gods to music, it exists in ever country in the world in different forms I know you think “aww well never mind I can get rid of 2000 years of human development” instance but no however much you may wish it true humans have been making music for 2000 years so not totally convinced they will all all over the globe go “oh never mind incompatible with covid let’s stop”

I honestly think people live on strange lands when they think they can end the performance of Shakespeare on Shakespeare birth place (just to note Shakespeare’s plays survived the plague)

I get you have gas lightened everyone with your “lockdowns are nothing abs stop moaning nonsense” but the suggestions are quite frankly ridiculous if you think about the
You need to understand we haven’t “stayed the fuck at hone and just watched Netflix” as a specie at all! It’s just not what has made as human however much it’s been very important to pretend that it is!! People who don’t get that live very narrow lives.

Well, first of all, Greek, most Roman theatre and most of Shakespeare (not all though) were performed outside…

First thing any ancient up to Enlightenment society did in a plague was close the theatres 😂 During Shakespeare’s career the theatres were repeatedly closed due to rampant plague outbreaks. He wrote some of his best narrative poems during the plague closures 😂

And his plays “survived the plague” because they were printed in books!

We've been to open air theatre, music, comedy, and cinema this summer,

Many creative arts venues are finding creative ways to keep going during the pandemic.

It's not "business as usual" of course, but it can't be can it? It's not business as usual for anybody.

Except for those deep in denial who think all you have to do for things to return to normal is "just go back to normal" and everything will magically slot into place.

(If only China had done that in December 2019, eh? The pandemic would no doubt have vanished in a puff of smoke.)

But personally, I'd take full years of April-May 2021 life over years of constant covid chaos.

Absolutely, @PrincessNutNuts.

I find it hilarious how we're the ones derided as "Lockdown lovers" when we're the ones laying out how we can actually avoid another fucking Lockdown!

@Jourdain11 phew don’t play with the sleep deprived like that lol

@NannyAndJohn

But personally, I'd take full years of April-May 2021 life over years of constant covid chaos.

Absolutely, @PrincessNutNuts.

I find it hilarious how we're the ones derided as "Lockdown lovers" when we're the ones laying out how we can actually avoid another fucking Lockdown!

Like when people say that kid's schooling mustn't be disrupted - but also support measures that are going to cause our children's education to be disrupted...

I also like "It doesn't matter how high cases get so long as hospitalisations and deaths don't start rising"

What do high cases always lead to though? High hospitalisations and deaths in a few weeks.

If you've got low cases you have low everything else. The more cases, the more problems.

Still, it's been days since anyone on here has said to me "But we have VACCINES now!"

Personally you'd take years of April-May 2021 life. Bet you aren't in jobs that are affected by restrictions. All very well saying that if it doesn't negatively affect your livelihoods.

And I assume you'd be happy to pay more tax to fund the workers furlough for years if you want continued restrictions.

There fucking better not be. I've got 2 trips away in November!

Hope not.

But think there will be some kind of curfew period over winter. Won’t be billed as a lockdown but restrictions will increase significantly. Some sectors might shut again e.g. night clubs, live music and cinemas.

What do high cases always lead to though? High hospitalisations and deaths in a few weeks. Not with the vaccine, they don't.

Princess

We accept 30-50 deaths a day for flu

That's the typical average annual flu deaths if you spread across the year

So are you saying we should be restricting entire country so we only have a 1/4 of the deaths we already happily accept for flu?

Some years flu has killed way more than these figures and no one has batted an eyelid

Your option is not possible or sustainable because your options only suit you

Many people would happily let it run its course now and the government seem one of them thankfully

@MaxNormal

Realistically, the stricter the lockdown the more the can is kicked down the road. Scotland had much stricter rules and lower cases last year. That lack of immunity meant that Delta hit us hardest.

Lockdowns are, possibly, useful as a short term emergency measure to stop health systems falling over but thats it.

And keeping on and on with them is so hugely costly and damaging I can hardly begin to grasp the scale of it.

Best post on this thread

@WhatNaYes

What do high cases always lead to though? High hospitalisations and deaths in a few weeks. Not with the vaccine, they don't.

We already have high hospitalisations and deaths, it was over 200 deaths yesterday and English school reopenings are not yet coming to bear on the numbers.

People seem to think as long as we are below the peak of 1000 deaths per day, somehow things are OK. But we are looking at high deaths for a protracted period, the NHS can not currently function - things are bad.

@NannyAndJohn

But personally, I'd take full years of April-May 2021 life over years of constant covid chaos.

Absolutely, @PrincessNutNuts.

I find it hilarious how we're the ones derided as "Lockdown lovers" when we're the ones laying out how we can actually avoid another fucking Lockdown!

I feel like I have walked into the twilight zone

It is strange NannyandJohn that you without irony I think can say that Step 2 life is avoiding another lockdown.

@PrincessNutNuts you cannot genuinely equate places ability to cope between April-July as a sign that these industries would be able to survive

No we cant go back to normal - but neither should we or can we go back to the days of shutting stuff because that isnt living with it either. Its not going anywhere - the vaccine programme that eradicated smallpox isnt going to work here and any lockdown is just going to suppress it down and then bring it back. We do have vaccines - vaccines that probably arent going to work any better than they are.

I do not think we should have closures but I do not think we can sustain unmitigated 'normal' life either heading into winter because the hospitalisations and deaths are getting to levels now where we will a) have problematic impacts on healthcare for a sustained period and b) people will start restricting their activities anyway which brings economic problems for businesses.

What level of strictness would you propose then? I assume you still want doctors to work in hospitals, and supermarket workers to be in supermarkets, and electricity companies to function?

And uber/deliveroo/amazon drivers to deliver all the stuff you can't go to the shops for. Amazing how all these people advocating for lockdown/restrictions are not at all bothered about those of is who will have to go to work regardless

[quote DoubleShotEspresso]@FallingRussetLeaves unlike many here seemingly I view any lives saved, children being saved being sick long term , CEV households being protected along with the elderly / care homes and easing pressure on health services a very worthwhile net gain. That's not at all assumptive it's common sense .[/quote]
It's 100% an assumption because you're predicating your views on the belief that further lockdown actually assists with this. That can't not be an assumption. There's nothing at all wrong with making one, but you don't get to pretend it's something it isn't.

It does speak volumes that you're only mentioning certain vulnerable groups here, too. CEV households deserve protection, nothing about those where there's DV. Telling.

We already have high hospitalisations and deaths, it was over 200 deaths yesterday and English school reopenings are not yet coming to bear on the numbers.

I can't believe this still needs to be said but, no there weren't 200 deaths yesterday. There were 200 reported yesterday, but many of those relate to days, weeks and months ago and even occasionally from the very start of the pandemic over a year ago. Deaths within 28 days of a positive test in England is currently standing at around 70/day.

No I'm not minimising, I'm simply stating that the headline number is not the whole story. Personally I think they need to stop reporting in this way and maybe should start reporting the weekly number (possibly with the 5 day lag, so the vast majority of deaths are included in that number)