Will there be another lockdown

[Doublethecars]

In November time?

@irresistibleoverwhelm

We did not have a circuit breaker in England because Johnson thought it wouldn’t play well with business, the Christmas shoppers, etc. So we didn’t try it, despite the data in what was happening in SE England being by then very clear. I don’t know why you’re claiming we did something we didn’t do, because despite circuit breakers in other regions they didn’t have that level of cases or the transmission of the Kent variant at that time. But whatever 🤷‍♀️

Didn't we have a month long "circuit breaker" last November to get the numbers down a bit to protect Christmas shopping?

[quote TheReluctantPhoenix]@MarshaBradyo,

I mean substantially reduce cases, so you can go a good long time before needing another one.

Yes, a lot harder with delta.[/quote]
Did Wales get very long after theirs before lockdown?

It’s fuzzy now but I thought it wasn’t great for numbers

@FallingRussetLeaves
I'm further suggesting how sad it is to read so many here so inconsiderate and unaware of many in their community deeply impacted by this very issue and others preceding Covid . Just because we are not visible to you doesn't mean we don't count

Did Wales get very long after theirs before lockdown?

About six weeks? Out of lockdown second week of November, back in for Christmas.

Wales was also a bit weird in that it had cases rapidly rising before Christmas when the alpha variant still hadn’t got much of a foothold there.

[quote DoubleShotEspresso]@FallingRussetLeaves
I'm further suggesting how sad it is to read so many here so inconsiderate and unaware of many in their community deeply impacted by this very issue and others preceding Covid . Just because we are not visible to you doesn't mean we don't count [/quote]
Which issue? Unpaid caring? I engage in some of that myself, as it happens. So it would be pretty difficult for me not to see it.

As for your previous post, the 'nah' bit wasn't aimed at you, although the formatting didn't come out very clearly. And you've still not actually addressed the initial point of mine you disagreed with. It's all predicated on the idea that lockdowns will actually do something to assist any of the problems you mention, that they'll actually be a net gain rather than loss long term. That's no more than an assumption.

@2389Champ a. I am losing the weight. And i know what to do thanks considering i was both Greatest Loser and Slimmer of the Year in 2003 for losing ten stone. Not as much to lose this time but not being in my late twenties/30 anymore it will take longer
b. Dont close the fucking gyms then!!!!!!!
c. Guess what women need , not just when they gain weight but while they are losing too. A BRA FITTING. ......Oh but wait wait..............that was among the close contact services that were closed. Ditto same applies with sports bras. You know to support those pesky things that us women have that men , including those tossers in Government like to sexualize but dont actually give a fuck about the health aspect of. Im currently a 38HH Try excercising without a sports bra. Tell your BIL to superglue two bowling balls to his male privileged chest and try it.

And before anyone says you can do a bra fitting virtually.............no im dyscalculic and have no idea where to start. I need things like this done in person. As im sure many do. I think those working in the NHS ON THE FRONTLINE do a great job but some are totally obllivious to the problems lockdown has caused.

Are you dead? Nope. Do you want an annual flu lockdown? What's your issue with investing in healthcare as opposed to locking healthy people uo?

Did Wales get very long after theirs before lockdown ?It’s fuzzy now but I thought it wasn’t great for numbers.

I dunno, but England came out of the November lockdown on December 2nd, invented a whole new Tier 4 18 days later, cancelled Christmas for a lot of us, then went back into full lockdown again on January 5th.

tier 4 was lockdown in all but name.

[quote Quartz2208]@DoubleShotEspresso I am sorry that you have it but actually your example actually could be used to show that lockdowns are not necessarily going to be effective given that you havent done much and still have it[/quote]
And what you said could be used to argue that our Lockdowns haven't been strict enough.

@FallingRussetLeaves unlike many here seemingly I view any lives saved, children being saved being sick long term , CEV households being protected along with the elderly / care homes and easing pressure on health services a very worthwhile net gain. That's not at all assumptive it's common sense .

@NannyAndJohn

• Quartz2208 @DoubleShotEspresso I am sorry that you have it but actually your example actually could be used to show that lockdowns are not necessarily going to be effective given that you havent done much and still have it And what you said could be used to argue that our Lockdowns haven't been strict enough.* I made this exact point earlier but it's been ignored 💁‍♀️

Realistically, the stricter the lockdown the more the can is kicked down the road.
Scotland had much stricter rules and lower cases last year.
That lack of immunity meant that Delta hit us hardest.

Lockdowns are, possibly, useful as a short term emergency measure to stop health systems falling over but thats it.

And keeping on and on with them is so hugely costly and damaging I can hardly begin to grasp the scale of it.

Yes @NannyAndJohn you are correct - indeed I have said that lockdowns with Delta in order to work have to be similar to those done in China - its exactly why I don't believe a lockdown is the answer this time because any measures we implement will only temporarily suppress the cases rather than anything else. That said given our case levels I am not even sure it would work given that it has always been tried on lower levels.

What level of strictness would you propose then? I assume you still want doctors to work in hospitals, and supermarket workers to be in supermarkets, and electricity companies to function?

@TheReluctantPhoenix

It is not perpetual.

With more people becoming vaccinated and herd immunity (through both vaccinations and infections) gradually building, each wave will be successively milder, until we can live with it.

Building more hospitals is not a solution, as we can’t staff them. And just nicking poor countries’ doctors and nurses is not an ethical solution either (before we hear it is all the fault of Brexit).

What we need is to attack COVID on all fronts: vaccinate the whole population, mask wearing and social distancing in the short term, and developing more home grown doctors and nurses and fundamental research in the medium term.

The delta variant is an annoyance when we would have had herd immunity, but ultimately no pandemic lasts more than 2-3 years and I suspect this winter will be the last dangerous wave.

At the moment we are playing fantasy normal life and creating a lot of problems 4-8 weeks out.

Herd immunity isn't possible with Delta.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/10/delta-variant-renders-herd-immunity-from-covid-mythical

U.K. covid numbers didn't start climbing dramatically until after the government abandoned its own rules, and opened up further on May 18th despite failing the four tests.

The April 12th open up didn't seem to have a major effect.

So once numbers are low, the NPIs we lived with after April 12th were enough.

Our lowest numbers this year were in May.

From the 8th May to the 9th June it was single figure deaths almost every day.

Then the May 18th step of the roadmap started kicking in and the numbers began ticking up again.

That tells us a lot about what level of NPIs we need in order to "live with covid"

This coming winter is going to be one enormous learning curve for everyone. True we need to learn to live with Covid but that doesn’t mean we can carry on regardless, some industries are simply not compatible with endemic Covid and that’s just with Delta, never mind any other variants.

My biggest fear now is a significant shift in vaccine efficacy through a new variant, if that happens then lockdowns would be our only option because we will be back to square one before you know it. The repercussions would be unthinkably catastrophic.

@PrincessNutNuts so before delta then

Then I am not sure what your point is because you seem to be suggesting we should live with it for awhile with those restrictions even though that means theatres/cinemas/gyms/restaurants wouldn’t survive and that in turn would have an even bigger impact than covid

@Thewiseoneincognito

This coming winter is going to be one enormous learning curve for everyone. True we need to learn to live with Covid but that doesn’t mean we can carry on regardless, some industries are simply not compatible with endemic Covid and that’s just with Delta, never mind any other variants.

My biggest fear now is a significant shift in vaccine efficacy through a new variant, if that happens then lockdowns would be our only option because we will be back to square one before you know it. The repercussions would be unthinkably catastrophic.

When you say industries are not compatible what do you mean

@Quartz2208 nightclubs, theatres, anywhere that only very recently reopened. I’m not saying they’ll disappear immediately but long term I don’t see how they would continue in their current state and be viable.

Aww yes “industries are incompatible with covid”. We can Get rid of theatre and live music it will be fine right?

Just to note the Greeks and the Romans had gods to music, it exists in ever country in the world in different forms I know you think “aww well never mind I can get rid of 2000 years of human development” instance but no however much you may wish it true humans have been making music for 2000 years so not totally convinced they will all all over the globe go “oh never mind incompatible with covid let’s stop”

I honestly think people live on strange lands when they think they can end the performance of Shakespeare on Shakespeare birth place (just to note Shakespeare’s plays survived the plague)

I get you have gas lightened everyone with your “lockdowns are nothing abs stop moaning nonsense” but the suggestions are quite frankly ridiculous if you think about the
You need to understand we haven’t “stayed the fuck at hone and just watched Netflix” as a specie at all! It’s just not what has made as human however much it’s been very important to pretend that it is!! People who don’t get that live very narrow lives.

[quote DoubleShotEspresso]@NannyAndJohn

• Quartz2208 @DoubleShotEspresso I am sorry that you have it but actually your example actually could be used to show that lockdowns are not necessarily going to be effective given that you havent done much and still have it And what you said could be used to argue that our Lockdowns haven't been strict enough.* I made this exact point earlier but it's been ignored 💁‍♀️[/quote] Yep. That's what they do when they can't find a decent answer. Slink away in defeat.

[quote Quartz2208]@PrincessNutNuts so before delta then

Then I am not sure what your point is because you seem to be suggesting we should live with it for awhile with those restrictions even though that means theatres/cinemas/gyms/restaurants wouldn’t survive and that in turn would have an even bigger impact than covid[/quote]
Delta was spreading here in March.

Cases were at their lowest this year in April and May.

Vaccination had begun the previous December.

We can calibrate a coherent strategy of NPIs to keep covid under control - or we can have more years of repeated lockdowns.

That's my point.

(Repeated lockdowns tend to be bad for business too.)

@siestalady

What level of strictness would you propose then? I assume you still want doctors to work in hospitals, and supermarket workers to be in supermarkets, and electricity companies to function?

Stay at home except for critical workers.

Neighbourhood informant networks set up.

Instant automatic £500 fine for anyone leaving their household without a pass.

Close schools for the whole 21/22 academic year.

Food drops by the army and military patrolling the streets to ensure compliance.