Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

regional split for cases reported today with a Monday spec date

Over 1 million LFDs registered in England yesterday. First time since 4th July the daily number of LFD tests has passed 1 million.

not surprisingly therefore almost 1 in 5 of cases yesterday, bearing in mind day -1 reporting, in the 10-14 age group.

finally regional numbers for spec dates as now reported to the week ending Sunday just gone, and equivalent point the prior week.

Numbers not looking too bad today. Scotland still looks like it may have peaked; hospital admissions looking good 🤞🏻

Slight derailment. I'm positive and on Day 8, but does anyone ever see all this through 'fresh eyes' as it were and realise how mental this all is.

@boys3 thank you so much for all this useful information. Do you know what I mean? Do you ever post this stuff and think 'Shit...global pandemic graphs '. Does that make any sense??

Just every now and then it hits me.

UK doubling time now down to 37 days.

And that's before the schools effect too.

Hope you are doing OK polly. I know what yiu mean. Occasionally, I suddenly feel like I am in a dystopic film.

@NannyAndJohn

UK doubling time now down to 37 days.

And that's before the schools effect too.

GIven that it is the UK and Scotland has had the school effect for awhile and the first set of LFT for High School return are coming through the reason the doublling time is down is schools

Yes, exactly, down to pre-school testing rather than in school transmission.

To be fair, we are also seeing some impact of August festivals in areas with low acquired immunity (like West Berkshire):

twitter.com/ArtySmokesPS/status/1435041010447491072

UK doubling time now down to 37 days

This is still a large improvement on the doubling time in June and July isn't it? And you say it's "before schools", but of course it includes the spreading at festivals, important difference because it includes an age group that were not as able to attend pubs and nightclubs when they were open. However it almost certainly does include schools as Quartz notes.

Does anyone know what percentage of the UK population has had covid since the start of the pandemic? I am constantly amazed by the large numbers of positive cases every day. I appreciate the % will only be those who have been tested so the actual figure would be larger. Thanks

Just over 7 million positive tests, so a good 10% of the population. Although the real number will be much higher.

@Bordois many thanks indeed

The 7 million includes an unknown number of people who have covid more than once. It excludes people who didnt test. True figure is pretty much impossible to identify.

The ONS surveys and Zoe have consistently suggested around 20% of cases are picked up as positive tests, which would put the 7 million up to 35 million, and that excludes the numbers in the first wave where the ratio was nothing like that. But as alreadytaken says, there are also re-infections of perhaps 1-2% even within that 7 million.

Flu, despite vaccination, significant prior immunity and less infectious than covid infects up to 20%, and RSV almost certainly more, average 6 "common colds" a year I believe - the novel nature of coronavirus has just compressed this into everyone getting it in a short time.

@alreadytaken

The 7 million includes an unknown number of people who have covid more than once. It excludes people who didnt test. True figure is pretty much impossible to identify.

Would it also include people who took multiple tests to see if they were still positive? (Ie during the course of the same infection?)

Bizawit, no it shouldn't, such tests are de-duplicated, and re-infection should have a very long period, and preferably sequencing of the virus that infected, which is why even those re-infection stats are not reliably known in people who were tested both times.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Bizawit, no it shouldn't, such tests are de-duplicated, and re-infection should have a very long period, and preferably sequencing of the virus that infected, which is why even those re-infection stats are not reliably known in people who were tested both times.

Thank you 🙏🏻

Polly "and realise how mental this all is..". I do every so often. I'm generally pretty stoic and organised so I've muddled through fairly well, but it's history isn't it and it hits me sometimes.
I was toying with making a small cushion cover with all my old shrunk fabric masks. That's normal isn't it .

@megletthesecond Covid art! Am sure I heard about a museum that’s collecting it

@Bizawit

Numbers not looking too bad today. Scotland still looks like it may have peaked; hospital admissions looking good 🤞🏻

Hospital admissions looking good? 😓

@Piggywaspushed

Hope you are doing OK polly. I know what yiu mean. Occasionally, I suddenly feel like I am in a dystopic film.

Yes! Keep saying this to DH, every now and again I think ok, when are the zombies going to turn up?! Just feels like being in a weird film

A difference between Scotland and England was pointed out to me, that I do think is worth considering... might Scotland's figures look more (possibly accurate) inflated because close contacts HAVE to get a PCR before returning to school/work, whereas in England it is advisory?

At my school, we did just catch 3 on a LFT who were household contacts, who clearly hadn't done the advisory PCRs. Fortunately LFDs caught them , but they will not always be caught and in school testing ends this week....England's numbers might be a bit deceptive?

@containsnuts ah the hospital admissions comment - was talking of uk as a whole. Hospital admissions are generally pretty flat and we’re slightly down in England yesterday 🤞🏻