Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

admissions

@wintertravel1980

Thanks, boys3.

Have some of Lincoln partygoers moved to Peterborough?

@wintertravel1980

a few may have got lost en-route (I think the Lincoln 15-29 was slightly higher); however given the 7 day rolling case total In Peterborough is something else at play? :)

We might be doing well at the Olympics, but the U.K. is rapidly falling down the European Vaccination Games (which Hancock said we winning a few months back).

First: overall vaccinations
Second: Current rates

Only Germany really doing as badly as us. The rest below will overtake us in the coming weeks.

Credit: Ourworldindata vaccinations

@Itsprobablynotcominghome

We might be doing well at the Olympics, but the U.K. is rapidly falling down the European Vaccination Games (which Hancock said we winning a few months back).

First: overall vaccinations
Second: Current rates

Only Germany really doing as badly as us. The rest below will overtake us in the coming weeks.

What a weird take. We have nearly 90% of adults with one jab and over 80% with two , with the latter continuing to rise steadily. We're hardly "doing badly".

Daft question perhaps. Does the vaccine work better in the very oldest people?Their rates seem to have dropped so spectacularly ( a good thing obviously) compared to people in 40s and 50s.

@Piggywaspushed

Daft question perhaps. Does the vaccine work better in the very oldest people?Their rates seem to have dropped so spectacularly ( a good thing obviously) compared to people in 40s and 50s.

A higher percentage were vaccinated in the oldest age groups. The drop in percentage looks fairly low, but tots up to an awful lot of people who remain more vulnerable to serious illness. Many of those people are also exposed to other unvaccinated people through work, socialising or kids in school. First and second dose vaccinations by age in England attached.

Trying again

This is the England population; if you take vaccination down to 75% in the younger age bands it's almost 1,000,000 people not vaccinated in that age band, whereas 90% of an older age band leaves under 100,000 people not vaccinated in that age band.

@Warhertisuff

Sure. We did okay to start with, but it’s trailed off miserably. Our rates are only going to decrease, except from a small bump from the 16/17 years old but to be honest that will bring the “90%” (an overestimation) down as I’d imagine take up will be even less than the 18-30s.

It doesn’t bother me too much. Those without the vaccine are going to get infected over the winter. Good luck to them.

Makes sense MRex. Thanks.

Love this thread thank you so much for the useful links and graphs 👍🏻

Only Germany really doing as badly as us. The rest below will overtake us in the coming weeks

Germany is 2 jabs for everyone right, same as us?

But many other places in Europe are doing the 1 dose if past infection, which means they get young people into "fully vaccinated" much quicker?

The thing is with vaccinations (and the US and Isreal show this) is that it is incredibly difficult to get much beyond 70% of the population - particularly where nowhere is doing the under 12s.

In the chart that @Itsprobablynotcominghome has shown most are hovering around the 70% mark. The US having streaked ahead hasnt reached there either.

IF (and it is an IF) the JCVI clear the over 12s I think we will have a bit of a bounce but other than that you are dealing with the fact that 25% of the worlds population is under 12 (It would vary between countries obviously) who it hasnt been cleared for anywhere. And then people who simply cant or wont have it.

Most are going to reach 70% and then hit a wall unless it is cleared for the younger population.

COnsidering we havent done any 12-18s year old we are still probably marginally ahead and have at that point hit that wall!

[quote Itsprobablynotcominghome]@Warhertisuff

Sure. We did okay to start with, but it’s trailed off miserably. Our rates are only going to decrease, except from a small bump from the 16/17 years old but to be honest that will bring the “90%” (an overestimation) down as I’d imagine take up will be even less than the 18-30s.

It doesn’t bother me too much. Those without the vaccine are going to get infected over the winter. Good luck to them.[/quote]
@Itsprobablynotcominghome

Vaccination rates have to tail off at some point. The fact they've tailed off in the high 80%s for adults (compared to the high 60%s for the USA) . I wouldn't call tailing off at that level "miserable". If so your expectations are wildly unrealistic!

@Quartz2208

The thing is with vaccinations (and the US and Isreal show this) is that it is incredibly difficult to get much beyond 70% of the population - particularly where nowhere is doing the under 12s.

In the chart that @Itsprobablynotcominghome has shown most are hovering around the 70% mark. The US having streaked ahead hasnt reached there either.

IF (and it is an IF) the JCVI clear the over 12s I think we will have a bit of a bounce but other than that you are dealing with the fact that 25% of the worlds population is under 12 (It would vary between countries obviously) who it hasnt been cleared for anywhere. And then people who simply cant or wont have it.

Most are going to reach 70% and then hit a wall unless it is cleared for the younger population.

COnsidering we havent done any 12-18s year old we are still probably marginally ahead and have at that point hit that wall!

The UAE has just approved the Sinopharm vaccine for over 3s. It will be interesting to see what effect this has on cases when schools return in September.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-02/uae-approves-sinopharm-shot-for-children-aged-three-and-above

@sirfredfredgeorge

Only Germany really doing as badly as us. The rest below will overtake us in the coming weeks

Germany is 2 jabs for everyone right, same as us?

But many other places in Europe are doing the 1 dose if past infection, which means they get young people into "fully vaccinated" much quicker?

I don’t necessarily see this as the wrong approach. (Without googling I remember some countries doing a single dose for under 65 who had a positive PCR within 6 months).

A) you get to “double” status quicker.
B) uptake is probably higher. Loads of people who refuse the vaccine say “I’ve had covid, so I don’t need a vaccine”. If these people were offered a single dose “booster”, then I think they would likely take it.

@Warhertisuff

I don’t generally hold the USA as a decent bar, considering it’s the antivaxx capital of the world.

Also, you aren’t comparing fairly. Their adults are 12+, our adults are currently 18. When we drop it to 16, that 90% will fall as uptake will be sub 40% I imagine, dragging the average down.

I don’t necessarily see this as the wrong approach. (Without googling I remember some countries doing a single dose for under 65 who had a positive PCR within 6 months).

I didn’t that post as saying it was the wrong approach but that it’s impacted the figures you’ve listed?

@Quartz2208

The thing is with vaccinations (and the US and Isreal show this) is that it is incredibly difficult to get much beyond 70% of the population - particularly where nowhere is doing the under 12s.

In the chart that @Itsprobablynotcominghome has shown most are hovering around the 70% mark. The US having streaked ahead hasnt reached there either.

IF (and it is an IF) the JCVI clear the over 12s I think we will have a bit of a bounce but other than that you are dealing with the fact that 25% of the worlds population is under 12 (It would vary between countries obviously) who it hasnt been cleared for anywhere. And then people who simply cant or wont have it.

Most are going to reach 70% and then hit a wall unless it is cleared for the younger population.

COnsidering we havent done any 12-18s year old we are still probably marginally ahead and have at that point hit that wall!

I agree with this. The pp sounded a bit negative re falling down table but in reality each country will start stalling around same point.

@MarshaBradyo yes and that is exactly what the chart shows. We are ok with this wave because of it and the rest of Europe wanted to get to the same situation as us.

It isnt a race - the max I think is probably going to be 80% and that will require I think at least 5-12 year olds

The other thing with the approach of counting one vaccine and recovery is that IT DOES NOT MATTER in the real world because what matters is getting people vaccinated and it keeping hospitalisations down and stopping it getting overwhelmed - which is happening here. Where each country is around the 70% mark and who is winning really doesnt matter. We should be wanting as many countries to hit the mark as possible

[quote Quartz2208]@MarshaBradyo yes and that is exactly what the chart shows. We are ok with this wave because of it and the rest of Europe wanted to get to the same situation as us.

It isnt a race - the max I think is probably going to be 80% and that will require I think at least 5-12 year olds

The other thing with the approach of counting one vaccine and recovery is that IT DOES NOT MATTER in the real world because what matters is getting people vaccinated and it keeping hospitalisations down and stopping it getting overwhelmed - which is happening here. Where each country is around the 70% mark and who is winning really doesnt matter. We should be wanting as many countries to hit the mark as possible[/quote]
All I heard was “best vaccine uptake in the world”, “it’s not a race but we’re winning” from Hancock for months.

Now I point out that countries like Denmark are smashing us, I’m seen as negative? Denmark, who are currently on 58+15 with a rolling 7 day rate of 1 dose per 100 people per day (compared with us at 58+12, and 0.25). They’ll hit a wall though, won’t they? Feels like 80% will be achievable for them without moving to under 12s.

There are a lot of things we need to consider.

Many of the countries now ahead of us have been vaccinating 12 - 17 year old- we haven't.

Demographics play a part too.

We have a younger median age than many countries in Europe.

We have a very ethnically diverse community, more so than some countries.

We also have no clue how many people are actually in the country ..........

I have to admit I have been disappointed by the lack of vaccination in younger age groups - but that age group also contains a much greater percentage of ethnic minorities that are less likely to get vaccinated. The Covid spread has also been greater in the UK than elsewhere so many think they have had virus and now have immunity.

I'm really pleased for Denmark, and all other countries doing well with their vaccination programmes. I think the UK has done well too. I'm worried about countries with low availability (e.g. most of Africa and Asia), or low uptake (e.g. Eastern Europe), those with poor planning to take advantage of vaccines when they arrive (e.g. countries work low availability and uptake that have nevertheless destroyed vaccines because they can't use them in time), and those with rising covid infections with poor healthcare systems. I'm also worried about the continual spread of vaccine misinformation; the news that Western European countries have such high uptake with so few side effects needs to be shared. For those countries, we should see it as a race, a race to help them be vaccinated.

I agree we have done very well with vaccines given our demographics and diversity of population.

I am guessing we will reach the 90% coverage for adult first doses by the end of summer. It looks pretty good to me.