Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

I think a lot of the modelling suggested that cases would remain fairly high for pretty much all of August? Perhaps now that the impact of the Euros is receding we are seeing that stabilisation type effect just at a slightly lower level than was perhaps anticipated?

Official R estimates are a lagging indicator (similarly to the ONS survey). They are based on cases, hospitalisations and deaths.

The R numbers we are seeing today reflect the change post July 15 peak.

What is more interesting is what is happening now and I am afraid the best estimate we have for that is the boys3 chart:). Looks like R is now slightly over 1 (but just slightly).

And yes, it is not clear what will happen to the numbers over next few weeks. The very good news is we are not seeing the Netherlands scenario (with cases rocketing post nightlife re-opening).

The spike so far is relatively small so I am hoping that we will follow the March scenario where school re-opening led to a short-term increase in cases that was quickly reversed through the vaccination efforts.

Second vaccine doses and ongoing increase in acquired immunity should both help.

Still going up in BCP.

"Official" numbers for BCP (with the 4 days cut off) are up but if we look at the latest few days and try to adjust for incomplete data, it looks like the trend has stabilised.

Brighton and Hove is still rising.

I’m so confused by the cases and reduction of R number atm. Judging by the amount of posts from mners, it’s become increasingly acceptable to delete the NHS tracking app and ignore their messages to self isolate if it doesn’t suit you and anecdotally test and trace don’t seem to be as proactive as they once were. What with that and the reduction in most measures and the news that the vaccines aren’t as great at delta variant transmission as we thought, how can cases be this low? Is it that people just aren’t bothering to test? Is it that it’s spreading more than we know because the 3 symptoms for a test are now out of date? Are schools a massive vector of transmission and so September onwards will see a return of issues with the reduction of self isolation in schools and so more cases spreading? Or is it just that we’re reaching herd immunity? I don’t want them high obv, but I feel so confused in understanding why the cases have decreased post euros and don’t seem to be increasing much at present. I see your posts about the data but I don’t understand why!

These tables shows both the prior and "latest" seven day rate per 100,000 using a two day reporting lag; with those increasing highlighted.

then

the actual reported case numbers for spec dates from Monday as reported this afternoon, with the previous column showing the number of cases at the equivalent point last week. Yellow shading for those that have increased.

These will be in descending order of case rate per 100,000 for last 7 days.

Starting therefore with the 25 English Council areas with the highest rates for the last 7 days.

26 to 50

51 to 75

76 to 100

101 to 125

126 to 150

151 to 175

176 to 200

201 to 225

226 to 250

Thanks, boys3.

Have some of Lincoln partygoers moved to Peterborough?

251 to 275

276 to 300

finally the 15 council areas with the lowest 7 day rate.

These include Blackburn with Darwen and that thread favourite Swale. Also Carlisle which had high rates just a few weeks back.

@wintertravel1980

And yes, it is not clear what will happen to the numbers over next few weeks. The very good news is we are not seeing the Netherlands scenario (with cases rocketing post nightlife re-opening).

The spike so far is relatively small so I am hoping that we will follow the March scenario where school re-opening led to a short-term increase in cases that was quickly reversed through the vaccination efforts.

Second vaccine doses and ongoing increase in acquired immunity should both help.

hope so

@JanFebAnyMonth

Great news from ONS!

I think I have read that the probability of new variants resisting vaccines is to do with ‘antigenic sin’ - could anyone explain what this means please?

Antigenic sin is where the body makes antibodies (or T cells) the first time it encounters a pathogen or its vaccine and then keeps just reusing those antibodies when reinfected or vaccinated with something similar rather than making new antibodies that work better against the new variant. It means that versions of the vaccines made for the variants aren't necessarily going to do anything other than work as a booster for the original vaccine (you get an increase in antibodies but they're the same as the original ones). It could also potentially lead to the immune system being unable to mount a successful defense against a variant that's sufficiently different from the vaccine that the antibodies from the vaccine are no longer neutralising.

in the interest of maintaining balance these show week of week percentage change in the seven day average for cases, deaths, hospitalisations and admissions. All relate just to figures for England.

Starting with cases

deaths (within 28 days)

hospitalisations