Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Rookie question

But if infection provides immunity (even if not forever) then doesn’t this also help over winter period.

You are very unlikely to catch it again / pass it on.

You just need the right people to get it which is the tricky part. But if it is low risk groups is it a disadvantage?

But if it is low risk groups is it a disadvantage?

The complication is that infections are unlikely to be contained within the low risk groups. All the waves so far have followed the same pattern. Cases first start rising in the young low risk age group (18-29) but they eventually and inevitably spill over into other population categories and reach vulnerable people.

@MarshaBradyo

Rookie question

But if infection provides immunity (even if not forever) then doesn’t this also help over winter period.

You are very unlikely to catch it again / pass it on.

You just need the right people to get it which is the tricky part. But if it is low risk groups is it a disadvantage?

Depends on the variant; Delta and Beta are quite different, so cross-immunity could be even lower than from Alpha to Delta.

We know infection immunity from wave 1 will have significantly waned for many, plus some immunity from wave 2 likely to collapse over the winter months. Wave 3 might be ok until early spring. See this paper on testing immunity: www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03777-9. It's a risk.

Another point re:vacc, is that many countries are using shit vaccines like the chinese one. In Hungary they did an antibody test representative of the population to see how effective the vaccines were. They used Pf, AZ, Sputnik and Sinopharm. And it turned out that being vaccined with sinopharm is almost equal to having been sprinkled with holy water.

Another interesting nugget of info was yesterday how south korea had already paid out hundred millions for ppl who had the vacc and had adverse reactions. Without following up (my bad, I know) it seems to be that they have way more adverse reactions that we can hear from other countries. Question is which vaccs do they use?

and it doesn't help to have half-info in shoddy written articles....

@TheSunIsStillShining - Korea has the highest AB blood type, @TheRedToothbrush had a thread with some theories about blood type and vaccine side effects that someone randomly resurrected today, so that's quite interesting.
I haven't seen any useful Sputnik research before, do you have a link to the findings please?

@MRex
Thanks, totally forgot about the blood type theory

I'll try to find the official source, but it will be in hungarian only (if avaialble). I have a friend who shared pics of research (official, peer reviewed mostly), but these are highly confidential and un-useful if you don't speak the language.
I'll let you know when I find something in readable format.

South Korea vaccine split here, mostly even split Pfizer/ AZ but they just had a big Moderna shipment.

If you can hack together the stats that would be great, thanks.

Official report is not out yet. The Pecsi Tudomanyegyetem (the 3rd best university to get a medical degree, highly regarded in EU as well) is running a study since March/April. they have provided press releases so far, but not the study. I'll keep and eye on it and post when it comes out in autumn.

And correcting myself: what I said about Sinopharm is -at this point- anecdata only. sorry.

slightly on a tangent: I don't know if you know this site, has a lot of interesting articles.
www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/

Hello all. Anecdata; be gentle.

I now have covid.

Because DSs were both showing symptoms and then tested positive , I did 4 LFTS (bit manic) all negative. But yesterday I had the terrible dreads and hadn't been able to eat for two days so I went for a PCR even though I had negative LFT that day.. Coughing all last night; result positive.

Data people may be interested to know this is my second bout of covid (last bout never confirmed as it was just after they stopped testing but these are the same symptoms and GP always says assume I had it) and I am double vacced. Lucky me.

It really is silly that the gov still sticks to these three main symptoms : no one in my family really fits the bill except me : I have cough now. DSs had terrible sniffles, and very mild cough. DS2 had headache and slight temperature. I have had mainly gastro symptoms and headache. Zoe seems to know all these are very common now. I do wonder how many cases are being missed.

Oh, and yes, this all started with students in Lincoln!

hack is the operative word here, so please take it with a large pinch of salt. Couple of different stats.

1. A covid lab did an analysis of their results. These are voluntary, non representative of population.

www.facebook.com/tesztpontfelegyhaza/ Let me know if chrome translate manages to translate or you need help. It's the pinned post that shows the results

1. Budapest mayor funded study

budapest.hu/Lapok/2021/a-fovarosi-onkormanyzat-altal-szervezett-antitestvizsgalat-elso-eredmenyei.aspx Of Sinopharm vaccinated about 24% did not seem to have immunity.

1. In other studies by a few universities the Sinopharm vaccine effectiveness is around less than 50%. It's frustrating that because of politics these studies and facts don't see the light of day. And thus become scaremongering and gossip :( unless I find anything definitive I will refrain from commenting in the future and adding to the gossip.

To be fair to Sinopharm - it is said that they have said in the regulatory approval data that it is way less effective in ppl above 60 and in H. many of the recipients are in that age group.

@Piggywaspushed
hope you get well soon!

@Piggywaspushed

Hello all. Anecdata; be gentle.

I now have covid.

Because DSs were both showing symptoms and then tested positive , I did 4 LFTS (bit manic) all negative. But yesterday I had the terrible dreads and hadn't been able to eat for two days so I went for a PCR even though I had negative LFT that day.. Coughing all last night; result positive.

Data people may be interested to know this is my second bout of covid (last bout never confirmed as it was just after they stopped testing but these are the same symptoms and GP always says assume I had it) and I am double vacced. Lucky me.

It really is silly that the gov still sticks to these three main symptoms : no one in my family really fits the bill except me : I have cough now. DSs had terrible sniffles, and very mild cough. DS2 had headache and slight temperature. I have had mainly gastro symptoms and headache. Zoe seems to know all these are very common now. I do wonder how many cases are being missed.

get well soon

Piggy hope you get better soon.

From the people I know who have had Covid lately - they generally start feeling a bit lousy but not necessarily with 'symptoms' of Covid.

So the chances are that they are mixing in this period before they get some more definite symptoms (many probably never will). Possibly why it spreads so much easier?

A family member had a 'negative but not quite negative' LFT followed by a positive PCR.

That's exactly it. DS now has to isolate gor ages as he is being treated as asymptomatic and was wandering around Lincs and Yorks with what appeared to be hayfever . No temperature that I know of. Generalised grumpiness but that's normal. The only thing that made me alert was being a teacher and knowing how many of our positive cases started with apparent hay-fever or upset stomachs. DS2 was more obvious but he had sniffles for about 3 days before temperature.

I hope you all get well soon @Piggywaspushed. Do you have everything you need in the house or good neighbours to fetch things?

@TheSunIsStillShining - can you translate the headings please?

Got everything at the moment I think. Thanks gor asking.

Aw, Piggy. I hope that you are OK.

Hope you will get better soon, Piggy! Very sorry to hear about the positive test:(.

Oof, sorry to hear that Piggy. Hope you get better soon.
I'm feeling coldy again (get mild colds all the time and they tend to pass quickly) as of today, and did a routine LFT yesterday which was negative. Have come back from a UK holiday so a bit more nervous than usual - may do a PCR if nothing improves (and not intending to go anywhere either).

@MRex

I hope you all get well soon *@Piggywaspushed*. Do you have everything you need in the house or good neighbours to fetch things?

@TheSunIsStillShining - can you translate the headings please?

on the facebook images:

antigen levels after X vaccine and the trend line fitted on them
Sputnik - power line
others - logarithmix
sinopharm linear

scatterplot - igg and igm data after covid infection

spec date graphic refresh for England following this afternoon's dashboard update

Slightly up by the looks of it but not worrying yet.

I do wonder if it's as a result of fewer people isolating now than before. Many due to pingdemic, hundred of thousands of school kids and those who were chosing to isolate to go on holiday. These people are now out and about mixing again.

I wonder if/what the effects are of people deleting the app who would have previously complied with it. (Sorry if you discussed this in a prev thread!)

Slightly up by the looks of it but not worrying yet

Indeed. Quite a mixed picture too.

Comparing the most recent and prior 7 day rates more Council areas in England had a fall in rate as opposed to an increase : 173 down vs 139 up; with 3 unchanged.

Lincoln still has the highest rate ; however at just under 650 per 100,000 it is well below the highest council areas rates seen in mid July - and looks to be falling back.

There are no councils that have seen really big jumps - highest week on week increase is up 112 per 100,000 - again way off the 200/300/400 per 100,000 week on week increases we saw in the lead up to the recent peak.