Over two weeks since The Big Reopening...

[TheVampiresWife]

...and so far, the carnage predicted by some on MN has not come to pass. Indeed the opposite seems to be true. This from my local newspaper suggests that in the north east (where we had the highest rates in the UK just a few weeks ago) we're doing far better than was expected by this point. It's worth remembering that Newcastle is renowned as a party city and the clubs have been busy since they reopened at 12.01am on 19 July. We would definitely expect to be seeing a surge in infections by now, if it was going to happen.

And for those who will jump on to say that less testing/schools being off will skew the data - that's addressed in the article, and the proportional rate of infection/testing.

In my local area the rate was almost 1500/100k just three or four weeks ago, now it's less than 300. I'm sure the naysayers will be along shortly to tell us that the data is noisy/unreliable/not to be trusted, but let's hope all the predictions of 100k cases a day and 'calm before the storm' are wildly off. It certainly is looking that way.

amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/18/uk-covid-cases-could-hit-200000-a-day-says-neil-ferguson-scientist-behind-lockdown-strategy-england

This was from the day before, certainly hasn’t come to pass yet.

It is looking good, I’m still cautiously optimistic and hope that we can continue this trend long term.

Cautiously is the operative word though, I’m still very low on trust in this current cabinet and their inclination to take very high risk gambles when there are more tentative options.

It’s interesting that the school testing regimes don’t appear to have impacted too much. The next test will be the reduction in isolation requirements. I hope it doesn’t impact too much but the possibility is there. I do wonder how much the ‘pingdemic’ contributed to the current decline in measurements we’re seeing and predicted.

It wasn't really predicted on MN, the government scientists and the health secretary were talking about 100k cases a day.

It's good news but still doesn't make sense to me unless the football impact was much, much bigger than anyone predicted. Otherwise it doesn't make sense more mixing leads to fewer cases unless the people who may have milder symptoms are no longer testing at all.

Well this is good though isn’t it?

I just ignore what other people say and don’t let them get under my skin.

The main thing to keep an eye on is hospitalisations and deaths.

As soon as testing goes down, so do the numbers so how accurate are these??. I wonder what would happen if only people who presented to hospital now were tested?

All this testing in the community seems a bit bonkers now when we're a tiny percent off herd immunity and over two thirds of the whole adult population have been vaccinated.

Just my opinion before I get my head bitten off......

I've been to Latitude festival and a packed Sadler's Wells last night to see Singing in the Rain (60 years old/double vaxxed and careful to a point). For me and my family, and most of my friends Covid is currently over. Let's hope the dam continues to hold.

It is a case of looking at and analysing data which, thankfully, to date, has positively surprised.

The current scenario is well within the range of model expectations, albeit at the low end.

It is a combination of level of immunity and number of contacts, which are still well below COVID.

Basically, we can relax for August and then see what happens in September. Hopefully, another positive surprise..

Well below pre COVID times..

I don't get it OP do you want naysayers to jump on this information or not?

Or is this a general pointing out that if anyone said it might get worse you just want to point out they were wrong?

Basically for positive data your post is very negatively worded.

Hospitalisations appear to be over the peak, and they expect deaths to follow over the next week.

I think it’s looking good at the moment, but the next week or so we will know for definite.

I feel hopeful and positive atm

@nordica (in my uneducated opinion) it will partly people not testing but I think, and hope, that what we’re mostly seeing is the impact of vaccines kicking in. I’ve been watching Indonesia because their rise in cases mirrored ours at the beginning and we’ve since diverged quite a lot. They’ve used Sinovac as their main vaccine and obviously there will be cultural and economic differences.

Delta is an interesting one though, the decline in India’s cases is the subject of debate for the scientific and medical community. There doesn’t seem to be a factor that it can be reliably attributed to (which is concerning because it’s much better to know what works so it can be replicated if needed).

At the beginning of our delta wave I should specify.

@frozendaisy

I don't get it OP do you want naysayers to jump on this information or not?

Or is this a general pointing out that if anyone said it might get worse you just want to point out they were wrong?

Basically for positive data your post is very negatively worded.

The doom and gloom brigade did say they would return to the positive threads and basically say 'I told you so' at the end of June/July when the cases hit 100k a day. Funnily enough they have been very quiet. Hardly surprising that those who were hoping for some positive news are enjoying a little 'I told you so' back.

I think we are good and no carnage will happen at all now

Less and less people are bothering with masks. Once you go once without one you don't tend to go back.....and another heatwave soon

It’s very divisive though isn’t it @RainbowCrayons?j

Having been on the ‘correct’ side a fair few times over this pandemic it’s not been a pleasant experience being proved right (obviously I’m on the pessimistic side) and I saw very little ‘I told you so’ or gloating about it and didn’t subscribe to it myself. I’ve also had to revise my opinion a few times including the extension of time between vaccines.

It’s great that things are going well, I don’t see the pleasure in the provocation of those who were adamant it wasn’t possible either tbh 🤷‍♀️

I’ll feel a lot happier if on October 1st there are sub 5000 in hospital with covid.

As I said in another thread…the naysayers have gone VERY quiet indeed. I can’t think why can you?
It was bizarre how one or two seemed to be relishing in perpetual lockdowns and misery.

Its cos schools are shut. Schools are the biggest spreaders.

I expect numbers will start to increase again in Sept. But hopefully the number getting sick will be low as most at risk will have been vaccinated.

@Marcee

Its cos schools are shut. Schools are the biggest spreaders.

I expect numbers will start to increase again in Sept. But hopefully the number getting sick will be low as most at risk will have been vaccinated.

Rubbish! have you never heard of EXPONENTIAL GROWTH???

Sadly, I expect 100k cases by the 1st of September, you mark my words.

Agree that the domesday scenarios are not coming to pass and some posters must be absolutely gutted.

Morning, everyone. We've deleted a couple of posts here that namechecked posters who aren't actually yet posting on the thread themelves. It feels like something that's likely to cause a bunfight and drag the thread off course, which we'd rather avoid if possible.

Thanks

I don't really understand the tone here - do some of you just want to have a fight about it? I was quite anxious and I'm very, very glad that the data seems to be going in the right direction (though I'm still concerned about what happens when schools go back). Surely we're all pleased by good news? I know people like to go on about lockdown lovers, etc, but I don't think that's anything more than stirring. So what do you want here?

@Cornettoninja

It’s very divisive though isn’t it *@RainbowCrayons*?j

Having been on the ‘correct’ side a fair few times over this pandemic it’s not been a pleasant experience being proved right (obviously I’m on the pessimistic side) and I saw very little ‘I told you so’ or gloating about it and didn’t subscribe to it myself. I’ve also had to revise my opinion a few times including the extension of time between vaccines.

It’s great that things are going well, I don’t see the pleasure in the provocation of those who were adamant it wasn’t possible either tbh 🤷‍♀️

In the end, it's great news when the pessimists are wrong because it means fewer people are dying. When the optimists are wrong, and I admit I have been on more than one occasion, then it's crap for everyone. Surely a little jubilation isn't misplaced. And some of the doom sayers did seem awfully gleeful about the worst case scenarios, almost as though they hoped to be right despite the fact that it would have been a terrible situation.