Over two weeks since The Big Reopening...

[TheVampiresWife]

...and so far, the carnage predicted by some on MN has not come to pass. Indeed the opposite seems to be true. This from my local newspaper suggests that in the north east (where we had the highest rates in the UK just a few weeks ago) we're doing far better than was expected by this point. It's worth remembering that Newcastle is renowned as a party city and the clubs have been busy since they reopened at 12.01am on 19 July. We would definitely expect to be seeing a surge in infections by now, if it was going to happen.

And for those who will jump on to say that less testing/schools being off will skew the data - that's addressed in the article, and the proportional rate of infection/testing.

In my local area the rate was almost 1500/100k just three or four weeks ago, now it's less than 300. I'm sure the naysayers will be along shortly to tell us that the data is noisy/unreliable/not to be trusted, but let's hope all the predictions of 100k cases a day and 'calm before the storm' are wildly off. It certainly is looking that way.

That was attacked

@herecomesthsun

It is not irresponsible to discuss the facts on a discussion forum.

I agree, absolutely.

It's when people post their own made up projections which do nothing but exacerbate anxiety and post deeply insensitive, offensive falsehoods that there's a problem.

MN tell us that it's supposed to be a supportive, helpful environment - posts like these are anything but.

Actually I think the tone of the op is looking for a fight

I'm really not.

I'm glad that things are looking positive and the worst predictions of certain posters have not come to pass, that's all.

There’s “discussing the facts” and then there’s lying. I’m glad MN have deleted a few threads of this type. Unfortunately most of the liars are a bit too clever to be spotted immediately, and start disingenuous posts, such as a breathily-worded “Really worried about dh….” before starting to sound extraordinarily well-informed about various statistics and graphs a few posts further on.

I’m also sceptical of people who wants to ‘discuss’ the facts by saying the same things again and again and again.

My opinion is that MN and probably other forums too are targeted by Political Activists quite often in the disguise of "mums".
Sometimes you can spot them even if they name change frequently, which they do.
Tell tale signs are appearing seemingly out of nowhere and then persistent and repeated posting on many many threads at all hours of day (almost like it's their job ). So much so that even infrequent genuine posters can recognize them and they can often be referred to by name and others know who they are when referred to.

Not everyone that posts a lot by any means - vast majority of regular posters are very genuine and really are passionate about their cause. IMO, these ones however have longevity and don't name change.

I think we get targeted by all sorts - not one specific left or right. I do think they tend to be anti boris, anti Brexit, pro lockdown, pro doom etc - but that may be my own political leanings as I may spot them more.

I find that once you suspect someone is posting as a bad faith actor it becomes really easy to just ignore them and I try to find them ridiculous instead but they are irritating especially when their purpose does seem to be mainly to upset people.
Not sure what can be done about them though

@HelloMissus

I’m also sceptical of people who wants to ‘discuss’ the facts by saying the same things again and again and again.

True. It’s more just repeating same stuff.

I agree, @sashagabadon . It’s “interesting” that the mega-doomers have the same political stance. As I mentioned upthread (or it might have been on another one!) one poster always somehow implies that we are the only country experiencing covid, or at any rate that everywhere else is just so much better off. And one poster actually said that the UK was responsible for the pandemic.

I agree that some activists I think are employed by a certain organisation to monitor boards and agitate as appropriate. I doubt whether they are ordinary folk who may pop up in Style & Beauty/The Doghouse/Money Matters etc etc.

@DottyHarmer

I agree, *@sashagabadon* . It’s “interesting” that the mega-doomers have the same political stance. As I mentioned upthread (or it might have been on another one!) one poster always somehow implies that we are the only country experiencing covid, or at any rate that everywhere else is just so much better off. And one poster actually said that the UK was responsible for the pandemic.

I agree that some activists I think are employed by a certain organisation to monitor boards and agitate as appropriate. I doubt whether they are ordinary folk who may pop up in Style & Beauty/The Doghouse/Money Matters etc etc.

I’m not sure about employed. But I do agree highly political.

This has been an opportunity to be vocal in the same way it has been for The Guardian to be hugely critical and negative.

Do you really think people are paid to post? I didn’t think Mumsnet was that influential really.

It makes sense with the appearing all at once posting over and over again and then disappearing

I don’t think so re pay

I’d want better quality of posts for that ;

At least get the maths right

You should see at Election times! Up will spring a poster or two on a mission and an aggressive mission at that.

I actually think some might be paid employees - it's a very time consuming job after all - if I was going to do I'd want remuneration!!
But accept they might not be - just ardent followers of a cause.
Quality of what they say doesn't really matter that much, in fact, it's good if it's nonsense and gets everyone furious/ upset and derails the thread.
Disruption could be the actual point rather than a genuine poster who is really trying to convert people to their point of view.

I never really believed in the paid poster/troll farms thing until I read the Simon Edge novel The End Of The World Is Flat which explains how it works. Now I almost think, if you have a cause to promote and a lot of money, why wouldn’t you?

Mumsnet has a very specific demographic, probably no influence outside that demographic but if it was the one you wanted to target it would be worth it.

Does it work to influence?

Mostly we’ve all just become pissed off at lack of discussion and repeated posting

I'm glad that things are looking positive and the worst predictions of certain posters have not come to pass, that's all.

Change that to 'certain scientists organisations and experts in the public eye' instead of 'posters', and it wouldn't seem such a combative comment.

I'm hoping that we're done for now. I want school to go back to being fun. This year has stripped all the fun from teaching nd made me want to leave the profession. K reckon this year is make or break.

I think we get targeted by all sorts - not one specific left or right. I do think they tend to be anti boris, anti Brexit, pro lockdown, pro doom etc - but that may be my own political leanings as I may spot them more.

What I notice most are the opposite opinions to these. Pro Brexit, pro Boris, anti lockdown, anti vaxxing children, pro locking away vulnerable people so they can get on with their own lives, and so on.

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel

I never really believed in the paid poster/troll farms thing until I read the Simon Edge novel The End Of The World Is Flat which explains how it works. Now I almost think, if you have a cause to promote and a lot of money, why wouldn’t you?

Ben Elton also wrote a novel which had SM influencing in it - Identitiy Crisis. He even has the Mumsnet feminists in there.

Yes I have read that one as well. I really enjoyed it overall but was less convinced by the influencing story thread than almost any other aspect, oddly. I think it was because iirc it was just shadowy Russian bots and he didn’t really explain their motivation or how they worked whereas in the Edge book the mechanics and motivation of it all are absolutely key.

hmm maybe I should read the Edge one. Edge is a very good name for a writer, don't you think?

Oh, I’ll read that.

I notice that some “issue” posters never mention any personal details, eg dh or dcs. Why should they, of course, but I notice it is common to a lot of them that they never share anything about themselves, and neither do they ever post on a general run-of-the-mill subject.

@Allmyarseandpeggymartin

Do you really think people are paid to post? I didn’t think Mumsnet was that influential really.

It makes sense with the appearing all at once posting over and over again and then disappearing

I think you may underestimate how popular mumsnet is. If you think about it MN is referenced regularly in the media e.g. daily mail and various radio shows lifting threads as stories and citing MN as a source.

There is a pretty active black market in forum/social media accounts. MN accounts don’t really have the same financial worth as say a Twitter or Reddit account, due to name changing probably. We’re a bit of anomaly amongst SM platforms in that there’s not really a culture of an expectation of having a history; that’s also a weakness in terms of how easy it is to target MN. There’s a few articles out there by people who’ve sold their accounts.

Ultimately I look at it as progression of subliminal advertising into the 21st century. Most agitators and misinformation agents aren’t looking to change anyone’s mind, they’re looking to sway the undecided with easily repeatable arguments spoon fed to them because it’s known most people don’t bother to look for information to counter their initial gut-lead reaction. Then the phrase ‘it’s easier to lie to someone than it is to convince them they’ve been lied to’ comes into play. Fascinating really.

There’s often not a particularly logical reasoning behind it; Russia and China are happy to create waves because social unrest strengthens their positions; then there’s actually quite a lot of money in conspiracy theories, not limited to but including advertising traffic. It’s successful for a lot of reasons, I suspect there’s a venom diagram somewhere showing the crossover between similarities in tactics between disinformation and cult recruitment. We all like to think we’re not vulnerable to it but we’re kidding ourselves. We’re just animals, we can reasonably predict how to train an average dog it’s a fallacy to think we’re above that level of manipulation.

The whole thing is endlessly fascinating though.

Venom diagram? Venn diagram.

@MarshaBradyo

Does it work to influence?

Mostly we’ve all just become pissed off at lack of discussion and repeated posting

If you believe the brexit vote and trump’s initial election win were supported by exactly these methods then yes they do. Cambridge analytica identified social media as a tool and how to target it and since then organisations have honed it for their own purposes using fairly well known psychological and marketing tactics in a format that can be used across social media.

Legislation is years behind the technology so often there is no way for an average person to protect themselves against it. To reference it again, subliminal advertising was a huge success but had to be regulated because it’s uses were open to abuse. This is just its evolution imho.