Over two weeks since The Big Reopening...

[TheVampiresWife]

...and so far, the carnage predicted by some on MN has not come to pass. Indeed the opposite seems to be true. This from my local newspaper suggests that in the north east (where we had the highest rates in the UK just a few weeks ago) we're doing far better than was expected by this point. It's worth remembering that Newcastle is renowned as a party city and the clubs have been busy since they reopened at 12.01am on 19 July. We would definitely expect to be seeing a surge in infections by now, if it was going to happen.

And for those who will jump on to say that less testing/schools being off will skew the data - that's addressed in the article, and the proportional rate of infection/testing.

In my local area the rate was almost 1500/100k just three or four weeks ago, now it's less than 300. I'm sure the naysayers will be along shortly to tell us that the data is noisy/unreliable/not to be trusted, but let's hope all the predictions of 100k cases a day and 'calm before the storm' are wildly off. It certainly is looking that way.

Thank goodness they were proved wrong

This. I'm glad they were wrong. Not in a crowing, told you so kind of a way. Rather, in a thank god thousands of people have been spared serious illness or worse kind of a way.

And yes, posters here did say that their prediction of 100k cases a day by 21 June, then 19 July, then 'August' was based on their own interpretation of the data. One in particular repeatedly reminded us that they had a maths degree so were able to make 'projections'. The same poster also claimed that there was a 'let the bodies pile high lot' on MN who were happy to let people die - curiously, those posts were never deleted despite being deeply insensitive and offensive, particularly given that many here have suffered bereavement in the past 18 months.

Over Christmas I was prescribed antidepressants and began self harming for the first time in decades. A lot of it was down to the general doom and gloom everywhere exacerbating my existing MH issues, and the general feeling of isolation during lockdown. But some of it was definitely fed by the awful things being said on here. I was becoming obsessive and had to stop myself using MN. I'm in a much better place now, and thankfully the vast majority of predictions made haven't come to pass. But I do think that people who make such wild claims do need to think carefully about the effects their words have. I'm not blaming anyone here for the awful time I had a few months ago, 100% not. But it didn't help my mind when it was in a fragile state, that's for certain.

Aaaanyway. Fantastic to see we're still under 30k today and hospitalisations are reducing too. Nobody can know what will happen come September, although with almost all adults being vaccinated by then (and today's news re how covid affects children) hopefully it will never again be as awful as it was last winter.

Research scientists are not ego driven media moguls obsessed with being right or wrong.

There is no fixed ideological agenda. They haven't already made up their minds and are blind. Their thinking flexes.

They comment on and interpret existing data.

As the data changes comments and interpretations change. This is how science works.

Researchers learn to live with being wholly or partially wrong, with constant review, challenge and criticism as part of the job.

Full respect to people who keep doing their job in the face of ad hominem attacks.

I think that the impact of large pub gatherings for Euro 2020 must have driven a lot of cases, and then the number of children off school in the last week of term (and now on holiday) has been a firebreak of sorts.

I welcome the decision now to vaccinate 16 and 17 year olds.

@TheVampiresWife I’m sorry you went through all that. I’m pleased you’re feeling better but it makes me very sad that posts on here contributed to your distress. This was my main worry with regards all those posting scaremongering threads. And probably why I got in to so many arguments! Why Mumsnet let many of those posts stand and didn’t ban certain posters I’ll never know.

I am so happy everything is open but I didn't believe in any of the lockdowns. But I seem to be talking to people at the moment who have 38 daughters in itu basically that won't make it who have been vented with young kids I've come across a few this week acc. Anyways all of them didn't believe in vaccines. Met lots of people who have had covid and the vaccine and just been in bed so it setting better

www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-uk-records-another-138-coronavirus-deaths-the-highest-daily-total-since-17-march-12371825

@Allmyarseandpeggymartin

And there’s me thinking that “those who shall not be named” had been banned for their damaging words.

Still banned/buggered off = same result

You can guarantee they will be back quicker than stink on shit when/if cases start rising going into autumn telling us how fucked we are.

138 were reported, but didn't actually occur yesterday. Daily average is around 70 at the moment, may go slightly higher as we are now getting the peak coming through. But still a million miles away from the 1000+ daily deaths from the last peak.

@julietmanchester

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-uk-records-another-138-coronavirus-deaths-the-highest-daily-total-since-17-march-12371825

So sad and very sobering.

Worth remembering however that these deaths relate to when cases were incredibly high a few weeks ago - it was always a tragic but expected outcome that when cases were 50k a day, the deaths a few weeks later would be horribly high.

Also worth noting that thanks to vaccines, we are seeing nowhere near the awful numbers of deaths we were seeing as a result of similarly high case numbers back in January. Every death is one too many - thankfully thousands of families are not mourning loved ones who, without vaccines, may no longer be with us.

@Bordois

138 were reported, but didn't actually occur yesterday. Daily average is around 70 at the moment, may go slightly higher as we are now getting the peak coming through. But still a million miles away from the 1000+ daily deaths from the last peak.

And yes, this too - historic reporting.

A lot of this is down to vaccinations and people having some immunity from have it previously whether known or not.

The pandemic is by no means over but in the UK we have seen the worst of it subject to a horrible variant that morphs into a mass killer.

@Bordois ain’t that the truth!

@TheVampiresWife I’m glad you’re feeling better.

irresponsible is more accurately applied to Johnson and his party's management of lockdowns really. (late in March 2020, didn't follow SGE advice in September 2020, funded at the start of January 2021).

Look, it is possible for more than one thing in the world to be "irresponsible." It is not a bloody zero sum game, and very few people here are actually trying to make out that BJ did a fantastic job of managing the pandemic as a whole.

It is not irresponsible to discuss the facts on a discussion forum.

@User135644

The key will be September after a month of full football stadiums in addition to nightclubs, foreign travel (possibly variants coming in) and the schools returning.

Let's see where we are mid-September. Figures post-reopening last month are encoruaging.

Football matches won't make much of a difference as they're outside.

It's the number and density of medium size gatherings that make the difference, of which there would typically be many tens of thousands every day, whether it's a church service of 100, or a busy pub of 80, or a birthday party of 60.... these every day gatherings that almost all of us attend routinely through the course of a year are where spread happens.

@KOKOagainandagain

Research scientists are not ego driven media moguls obsessed with being right or wrong.

There is no fixed ideological agenda. They haven't already made up their minds and are blind. Their thinking flexes.

They comment on and interpret existing data.

As the data changes comments and interpretations change. This is how science works.

Researchers learn to live with being wholly or partially wrong, with constant review, challenge and criticism as part of the job.

Full respect to people who keep doing their job in the face of ad hominem attacks.

Exactly.

I well, they have doctored the app to fudge the infection numbers

I'm feeling cautiously optimistic. I think the schools being on holiday are helping. I am a little worried still want will happen come the autumn. I did think things would be a lot worse after the Euros, so that is positive. In the last week or so I feel like I am getting back to some normality and it feels great.

@Kokeshi123

I don't really understand the tone here - do some of you just want to have a fight about it?

I don't think anyone wants a "fight" as such, but I do think some of us are a bit frustrated about the fact that some posters seem to love making the most awful, doom-ridden predictions, and when these don't come to pass we're all supposed to just forget about this.

Actually I think the tone of the op is looking for a fight . It may be that a couple of more pessimistic posters have said I told you so occasionally in the past but with a couple of high profile exceptions that has been in the face of a lot of denying of the obvious ( aka reckless optimism and denialism) from the majority especially in the early days

I see very very few posters on here '"revelling" in anything to do with this pandemic. Of course there are a few but they are on a significant minority and the op's post definitely does not seem like it is about being happy about what is happening ( despite their disingenuous second post to that effect) but more their own sort of ' I told you it would be fine nah bah nah nah"

This sort of tone and goading is exhausting no matter if it comes from the optimists or the pessimists

And yes you should just forgive and forget the fact that some people loudly said it would get worse when it didn't just as we need to forget and forgive the people who said it was nothing and nothing would happen at the beginning when things did go.badly wrong.That is because we have been in a period of great uncertainty so being right or wrong was mostly a matter of chance.

And if you can't manage to forgive and forget , whichever side you are on, then at least don't make matters worse by posting in a tone that will only result in people being defensive

i repeat again . ABSOLUTELY NOBODY was or is delighted to be right when things went wrong in this pandemic, not unless they were a psychopath . They were just feeling attacked by their fears being dimished,. dismissed and ridiculed, which was happening a lot.

As to the actual facts in the op ( as opposed to the tone) . As a.cautious pessimist myself, and someone who very early on thought we could possibly have up to half a million deaths so would be categorised as one of your ' doomsayers'- I am delighted, I really am and have never been so glad to be proved wrong.

@marieantoinehairnet

I well, they have doctored the app to fudge the infection numbers

Look at hospitalisation figures instead.

Some people will never ever admit they were wrong.
God help their partners and children.

And there are still posters going into threads where people are anxious, telling them they’re right to be anxious, that cases are sky rocketing, that we should all be very afraid, that they’d better not go on holiday/meet friends/insert activity of choice.
It’s fuelling anxiety in already anxious people.
And they do it because they can. And because they enjoy it.

Sadly, @bumblingbovine49 , there are a few posters who have been revelling in the situation, and posting grinning faces when things look bad.

Unfortunately those posts do stand out and, although there may be only a few posters like this, they post quite prolifically. I don’t know if they are for real or, indeed, psychopaths, but “gleeful” posters definitely exist. I did an AS and on a thread from last month “How long till we go into lockdown?” and yep, there they were.

@bumblingbovine49 I take your point but I think some people positively enjoyed the drama of joining threads and upsetting/winding others up

@Kokeshi123. Actually, most of the people here (including me) expressing frustration at the doomy lockdown lovers ARE the "in between" people.

Well as someone accussed of being a Lockdown Lover by someone saying that the vulnerable should stay at home temporarily to avoid every else being locked up. We weren't even in Lockdown at this point.
My crime. Merely explained that the vulnerable were already locked up and their version of locked up was very different and much tougher than Lockdown.

So in my opinion Lockdown Lovers are just often middle of the road realists who didn't enjoy Lockdown but could see it was necessary.oftrn they are attscted by the more Covid denying extreme types
See it works both ways. Neither approach is right.

For the premise of the thread I am pleased things are looking good.