Over two weeks since The Big Reopening...

[TheVampiresWife]

...and so far, the carnage predicted by some on MN has not come to pass. Indeed the opposite seems to be true. This from my local newspaper suggests that in the north east (where we had the highest rates in the UK just a few weeks ago) we're doing far better than was expected by this point. It's worth remembering that Newcastle is renowned as a party city and the clubs have been busy since they reopened at 12.01am on 19 July. We would definitely expect to be seeing a surge in infections by now, if it was going to happen.

And for those who will jump on to say that less testing/schools being off will skew the data - that's addressed in the article, and the proportional rate of infection/testing.

In my local area the rate was almost 1500/100k just three or four weeks ago, now it's less than 300. I'm sure the naysayers will be along shortly to tell us that the data is noisy/unreliable/not to be trusted, but let's hope all the predictions of 100k cases a day and 'calm before the storm' are wildly off. It certainly is looking that way.

@milkyaqua

Prof Christine Pagel said on Twitter a few days ago:

THREAD: latest covid situation in UK (mainly England) and what I think is going on...

TLDR: I do think there has been a recent drop in transmission, due to combo of different things. Might not be quite as big as seems and might not last.

Prof Pagel said on Twitter today.

Some good covid news:

More evidence that the reduction in covid cases after 19th July was real - hopsital admissions in England have dropped quite a bit over the past few days.

She also said today:

I also don't think anyone thinks this is the last peak.

@2X4B523P

amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/18/uk-covid-cases-could-hit-200000-a-day-says-neil-ferguson-scientist-behind-lockdown-strategy-england

This was from the day before, certainly hasn’t come to pass yet.

Has Ferguson actually got a single prediction right yet?

@milkyaqua

She also said today:

I also don't think anyone thinks this is the last peak.

I think she's right. This time. 😉 😂

I still think

• labelling our relaxing of restrictions as "Freedom Day" was a mistake, as it suggests that we are now "free" in some way from the pandemic, whereas we very much aren't.

• Johnson shouldn't ever have suggested this was "irreversible", it created false expectations.

• we have been too slow to vaccinate teenagers, we should be further along with this by now. Especially where there is clinical vulnerability.

Who knows what the numbers will be in the autumn, but the mixed messages won't have helped.

@milkyaqua
Yes but we now have the vaccines and they WORK.

@bumbleymummy

Has Ferguson actually got a single prediction right yet?

Didn't he predict his girlfriend was coming round for a shag. 🤔 He got that right.

I think she's right. This time. 😉 😂

Irresponsible still isn’t it to go in like this.

Peak of what even? If cases what does she want - low forever despite nearly all vaccinated.

I can take Ferguson’s modelling better than Pagel and the ramping up statements on Twitter

@MarshaBradyoNo, irresponsible is more accurately applied to Johnson and his party's management of lockdowns really. (late in March 2020, didn't follow SGE advice in September 2020, funded at the start of January 2021).

That's irresponsible.

Calling this out is more like civic duty.

@herecomesthsun

labelling our relaxing of restrictions as "Freedom Day" was a mistake,

To be fair it was the press who labelled it that, not Johnson. He referred to moving towards getting our freedoms back. Honestly, the press have been blinking awful during this pandemic.

should be "SAGE" and "fudged" sorry

@Westchesterarms yes and much of the media coverage has indeed been highly irresponsible.

[quote herecomesthsun]@MarshaBradyoNo, irresponsible is more accurately applied to Johnson and his party's management of lockdowns really. (late in March 2020, didn't follow SGE advice in September 2020, funded at the start of January 2021).

That's irresponsible.

Calling this out is more like civic duty.[/quote]
Have you read SAGE minutes from early Feb and do you get what happened? Your friend Cummings goes on about it - in an interview for select committee.

What happened with Wales numbers after short firebreak?

No not civic duty - more like Twitter personalities having a moment in media with zero accountability for comments. Some lap it up though as it feeds into their need for negativity.

And that 1200 scientists letter you regarded highly. Have they come back yet?

It wasn't MNers predicting 100k a day. They were reporting what scientists were saying.

I do think what's helped have been vaccinations, schools closed and people are generally still being careful with masks etc.

I also think that currently no where is at full capacity although they can be. From people who've visited cinemas and restaurants and theatres they say they still sit SD from other families, people still mostly wear masks etc.

There are nightclubs etc open. But that is a very small number of society attending them. They are probably the thing that is equivalent to being in school the most but they're aren't as many of them so still less people mixing and a number of them will be vaccinated.

[quote Westchesterarms]@herecomesthsun

labelling our relaxing of restrictions as "Freedom Day" was a mistake,

To be fair it was the press who labelled it that, not Johnson. He referred to moving towards getting our freedoms back. Honestly, the press have been blinking awful during this pandemic.[/quote]
I wondered where this came from, glad to see it was media.

The key will be September after a month of full football stadiums in addition to nightclubs, foreign travel (possibly variants coming in) and the schools returning.

Let's see where we are mid-September. Figures post-reopening last month are encoruaging.

But, sun, the problem is that predictions were made over 19th July that do not seem to have come true. If it were up to certain groups, we'd still be in lockdiwn, not just wearing masks. So it's impossible to say what would have happened if lockdowns had happened at different times. Its just personal opinions of different people. Just like predictions were between 60,000 and 200,000 cases a day but both proved to be wrong.

why is Cummings meant to be my friend??

The primary schools opened for 1 day on Jan 4th - total shambles, especially in the middle of a pandemic. That especially is what I think was irresponsible.

If you have a point to make, could you cite whatever it is succinctly please, rather than referring to a whole meeting as it's a bit hard to work out what you are trying to say and how you're evidencing it?

@herecomesthsun

why is Cummings meant to be my friend??

The primary schools opened for 1 day on Jan 4th - total shambles, especially in the middle of a pandemic. That especially is what I think was irresponsible.

If you have a point to make, could you cite whatever it is succinctly please, rather than referring to a whole meeting as it's a bit hard to work out what you are trying to say and how you're evidencing it?

You can watch it can’t you?

Look for SAGE advice re first lockdown. Swift turn around from trying to avoid winter peak. A week before it happened.

At least get facts

I thought it would be bad for England and was feeling pretty worried, so am really surprised that it seems to be OK. I am in Wales and we will be losing the final restrictions this weekend. The thought of being able to go out without booking everything in advance is very very cheering. I am glad we are keeping masks in some settings though.

I am really hopeful that we in the UK are through the worst now.

@MarshaBradyo

And that 1200 scientists letter you regarded highly. Have they come back yet?

I don't remember posting much about the letter.

Looking at this again, it wasn't predicting 100k cases/ day, it was mainly discussing the long term risk of variants and the inadvisability of leaving adolescents unvaccinated. It might be that a year from now, we will look back and think that we should have vaccinated adolescents in line with the US and much of Europe. Of course, who knows what will happen with variants.

One of the most controversial elements was re-opening nightclubs which caused a lot of problems in the Netherlands. There has been especially difficulty getting vaccine uptake in younger people who might be going to nightclubs, I guess.

However, regarding the overall outcome, it's a bit too soon to say.

I supposed we'll see how it all pans out over the next few months,

@MarshaBradyo The thing is, it can be difficult to know what you are referring to.

What do you think is supported by this meeting you want me to watch?

Are you talking about Feb 20 rather than Feb 21? (Presumably this would have been a meeting not attended by Johnson. Don't you think that's a bit irresponsible?)

Goodness, this has gone on for a long time, when we have to work out which year.

I don't remember posting much about the letter.

Maybe you did, not sure. Probably The Guardian herd immunity article warning against approach - similar tone.

I don’t want to feel any relief etc when we really don’t know what else this virus is going to throw our way.

I know that some of the chief doom mongers though did not have covid as their main concern: they were political . In their minds thousands dead, businesses ruined, ongoing misery was all worth it for societal breakdown.

Recently one (usual) poster was claiming the whole thing was the fault of the UK. No, not China. The UK. At that point their mask didn’t just slip but fell off entirely and you could see what their game was.