Over two weeks since The Big Reopening...

[TheVampiresWife]

...and so far, the carnage predicted by some on MN has not come to pass. Indeed the opposite seems to be true. This from my local newspaper suggests that in the north east (where we had the highest rates in the UK just a few weeks ago) we're doing far better than was expected by this point. It's worth remembering that Newcastle is renowned as a party city and the clubs have been busy since they reopened at 12.01am on 19 July. We would definitely expect to be seeing a surge in infections by now, if it was going to happen.

And for those who will jump on to say that less testing/schools being off will skew the data - that's addressed in the article, and the proportional rate of infection/testing.

In my local area the rate was almost 1500/100k just three or four weeks ago, now it's less than 300. I'm sure the naysayers will be along shortly to tell us that the data is noisy/unreliable/not to be trusted, but let's hope all the predictions of 100k cases a day and 'calm before the storm' are wildly off. It certainly is looking that way.

I don't think that the room mongers are paid. There have always been people with health anxiety, intrusive thoughts... and the pandemic will have almost encouraged it.

@TheGenealogist

Who's paying the doom mongers though, and with what agenda?

I can understand people thinking that people who were minimising, or making out that things were loads better than they were, were being paid by the government. Even if you don't believe it's true (and I don't), you can follow the logic of "let's keep things calm and not allow things to descend into panic".

Perhaps in March 2020 there was a government aim of keeping us terrified with doom and gloom predictions but since we have had the vaccine that has definitely shifted to "get the jab" and positivity about the future.

I think the doom merchants aren't shills, being paid to post. They are people who were probably anxious about illness, germs and bacteria before Covid, the last 18 months has wrecked their mental health, and they are now utterly paranoid and convinced it's all going to be awful.

In theory, I suppose anyone who's anti-government - either the actual opposition (though in some ways, you'd sort of hope they'd be able to hire better disinformation agents than people who just shout "DOOOOOOM!" repeatedly and mostly succeed in pissing people off) or fringe political groups. Or foreign agents who think the best way to destabilise the UK right now is to get us anxious and arguing about the re-opening strategy, possibly with the ultimate aim of keeping things shut down for longer than is necessary to damage the economy and public morale. But as I said, I agree with your last para and think in reality they're just run of the mill anxious people with no paid agenda.

I think there are “scrapers” if that’s a term who monitor the internet and leap on various discussions - I know Momentum were doing it at election time and if anyone says “trans” you can bet that it has been noted by organised activists.

I heartily agree that there are some extreme political people - I guess anarchists - who would rather we all died of covid than there was any slight govt or even UK success. Of course there are the “it’s all a hoax” weirdos elsewhere on the internet but they fail to make much of an in-road into MN. A few anti-vaxxers sneak through but generally they are a bit dense and their style easily identified, however many threads they start about marathon runners in ICU after Pfizer or turning into a one-legged gibbon with earache after AZ.

I obviously don’t know for certain but I would imagine paid trolls are sometimes instructed to agitate for both sides. Particularly in the case of foreign government backed projects the wider aim is to cause disruption and destabilise society, there’s no point in having only one side of an argument raging.

I realised this tactic the other day, DP gets annoyed with me for listening to LBC but there are a couple of daytime presenters who are left leaning and nothing like their farage-esq presenters. I like a good radio phone-in debate so they really appealed to me, although I was surprised. Then it struck me that LBC aren’t interested in providing balance, they know that agitating their own demographic keeps people invested, entertained and tuning in whilst enabling them to keep up a front of ‘balanced journalism’.

I think it’s important to remember that not everybody on SM is a shill, part of the strategy is encouraging people to have the confidence to voice and defend an opinion they might not of otherwise, partly because they may not of even realised they held it until they were exposed to it communicated appealing to them. It’s more of a wind ‘em up and watch ‘em go tactic.

The people who predicted carnage aren't totally unreasonable.

Since the pandemic we've seen news headlines of outbreaks in nightclubs in places like Seoul which had Covid until much better control than the UK.

Plus with news like this https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dutch-pm-apologises-easing-covid-19-curbs-cases-soar-2021-07-12/ I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that the same might have happened in the UK.

BTW I am pleased at the current situation in the UK with the NHS not overwhelmed etc.

Are these people trolls?

Sajid Javid - last month - "this is uncharted territory...As we ease and go into the summer, we expect [case rates] to rise. They could go as high as 100,000"

Boris Johnson - previously "said that daily cases could hit 50,000 on July 19"

Can we even process that many tests in a day ?

I think the UK can process up to 700,000 pillar 1 and 2 tests a day. In theory. Certainly we have tested more per million of population than any other country.

Sajid and Boris make those claims a. Because that is what the scientists tell them, b. They are in positions of influence and don’t want to be seen to encourage people to behave badly c. They want to hedge their bets.
They might have been quietly confident cases wouldn’t get to 100k, we’ll never know. My own view is that they had no idea which way it would go.
They are not all over Mumsnet predicting Armageddon and trying to scare and upset people. If anything I find with Boris he has to reign in his optimism, not to stop himself being too gloomy. Out of the two approaches, I prefer restrained optimism in the PM.
Others may prefer a glass half empty approach and Boris is obviously not this.

Boris Johnson - previously "said that daily cases could hit 50,000 on July 19"

The peak did hit 50,000 on this date so it’s not incorrect.

I’m glad the mood on here wasn’t reflected in decision last and we lifted. All the letters and WHO warnings and people going on about unethical ‘UK experiment’. People on here negative as anything.

Whitty and others held, as they did for AZ over 65 against huge criticism. Tg.

Then it struck me that LBC aren’t interested in providing balance, they know that agitating their own demographic keeps people invested, entertained and tuning in whilst enabling them to keep up a front of ‘balanced journalism’.

'Balanced journalism' has moved from sensible measured arguments from opposing points of view to unrepresentative extreme views which are deliberately provocative because it makes for a 'more entertaining' spectacle.

The trouble is this doesn't inform people as instead of appealing to logic it appeals to emotions.

Its known that appeals to emotion tend to manipulate the public more than measured logic. Hence why various politicians have been doing it for a number of years.

Anyway going back to the OP, the last few days of data appear to be not so good and we may be teetering back to growth of cases.

However this isnt outside expectation levels:

Stephen B Streater @video4you
The red line shows daily growth in reported cases.

The gold line estimates a growth ceiling as vaccine / infections increase immunity.

The silver line estimates minimum growth when people are acting with normal levels of care, eg with balanced media coverage.

So we've seen case levels go up but within the limits of whats expected.

If things are going to plan, then it looks like the R should naturally fall below 1 at the end of the month.

There are cavets about that going into September - namely whether transmission in schools is problematic and whether the effectiveness of vaccinations declines.

My point is that we are likely to hear a lot of talk about cases going up again, but this is what we should be keeping an eye on.

@sashagabadon

Sajid and Boris make those claims a. Because that is what the scientists tell them, b. They are in positions of influence and don’t want to be seen to encourage people to behave badly c. They want to hedge their bets. They might have been quietly confident cases wouldn’t get to 100k, we’ll never know. My own view is that they had no idea which way it would go. They are not all over Mumsnet predicting Armageddon and trying to scare and upset people. If anything I find with Boris he has to reign in his optimism, not to stop himself being too gloomy. Out of the two approaches, I prefer restrained optimism in the PM. Others may prefer a glass half empty approach and Boris is obviously not this.

Yeah, I believe that they took a gamble. They had absolutely no idea what would happen so they hoped for the best but ‘prepared’ for the worst.

Once again, (so far) their gamble has paid off. Cases didn’t sky rocket. I don’t think anyone expected them to start dropping.

However, it’s a gamble that could have (and still might) gone terribly wrong. I think autumn/ winter will be the next big test really.

If you look back, the July 19th decision is the first time that cases have quite obviously come down without a lockdown and in fact with restrictions being lifted. That’s quite a significant milestone. Imagine if Boris had listened to those 1200 scientists and stopped lifting restrictions. They would now be claiming that the fall in cases was due to their excellent advice. We now know cases can fall regardless of lockdown restrictions. We’ll never know if in previous waves cases would also have fallen. We’ll never know but it does make me wonder.
It’s why the stakes were high for the pro lockdown advocates. It’s why they threw the kitchen sink at it as this result has discredited their advice somewhat.
I heard one Mp say it was something like telling your wife that your house was going to fall down tomorrow but instead of falling down it added a new conservatory and loft conversion. She’d never trust your judgement again

@sashagabadon

If you look back, the July 19th decision is the first time that cases have quite obviously come down without a lockdown and in fact with restrictions being lifted. That’s quite a significant milestone. Imagine if Boris had listened to those 1200 scientists and stopped lifting restrictions. They would now be claiming that the fall in cases was due to their excellent advice. We now know cases can fall regardless of lockdown restrictions. We’ll never know if in previous waves cases would also have fallen. We’ll never know but it does make me wonder. It’s why the stakes were high for the pro lockdown advocates. It’s why they threw the kitchen sink at it as this result has discredited their advice somewhat. I heard one Mp say it was something like telling your wife that your house was going to fall down tomorrow but instead of falling down it added a new conservatory and loft conversion. She’d never trust your judgement again

I’m (fairly) certain ish that it has been said that with previous lockdowns the peak happened before they implemented lockdown.

The lockdown just helped cases fall faster.

I might have misunderstood though.

Yes maybe. It would be interesting to do an analysis of the various peaks to ascribe falls in cases to natural fall and lockdown. Probably no one would ever agree! Obviously previous waves have not had the benefit of vaccinations in the mix which is the decisive factor.

@sashagabadon you make some valid observations but I still disagree with the approach to ‘freedom day’ (not least the ridiculous branding).

It was a gamble, pure and simple and by definition a gamble has a possible good outcome and a possible bad one. My opinion was, and still is, that wasn’t the only option, there was a middle ground. FD happened at a time infections were accelerating, if we’d given it a week or two with partially lifted restrictions (say face masks/SD and increasing large gatherings to a percentage of capacity) we would have seen the same stabilisation/reduction and lifted restrictions in the knowledge that we could achieve a baseline. Some decisions have had to be made under time sensitive pressure during this pandemic, I don’t think this was one of them and could have conceivably gone the way as operation save Christmas.

I’m pleased it looks like it’s paying off, we all benefit from it. I feel the same about their gamble with changing the duration between vaccines, it paid off and that’s great but ultimately it’s down to luck not measured tactics and talented leadership.

I won’t be praising a government and supporting advisors for their ability to throw snake eyes when it’s nothing to do with talent but their confidence in gambling with other peoples stability.

but ultimately it’s down to luck

I’d credit Chris Whitty more than this on it all. His idea was to use summer for infection peak and he’s been right when others have criticised before.

Yes, I agree @coit was a massive gamble and they have been ‘lucky’ that it paid off really.

Things could have been so much worse.

I am sorry @coit I didn’t mean to tag you!

Gotta say I disagree. Yes it was a gamble but an educated one, same as the dosage gap. It’s just as much a gamble to not open up, it’s just that the prevailing wisdom is not to frame it that way. I am glad that we do on occasion take the “gamble”. It shows leadership imo.
I accept others may disagree with this though. That’s the thing, every strategy is a gamble as it’s an unprecedented situation.

@MarshaBradyo maybe so, but it was luck (so far) that a summer peak didn’t result in overwhelming the health service. There have definitely been moments it’s looked precarious, by which I mean measurements have all risen at a rate that alerts us to the possibility of a problem. A lot of it has been reliant on the assumption that vaccines will have the desired impact and that the public will take them up.

I’m personally feeling optimistic now it’s looking like all the measurements are showing signs of stabilisation but we could have (imho should have) been far more cautious and lifted things incrementally. I can’t agree that we’ve (as a country) have acted responsibly even with retrospect.

I’d credit Chris Whitty more than this on it all. His idea was to use summer for infection peak and he’s been right when others have criticised before.

If he had been right, then cases would be rising, not falling after July 19th as we 'used the summer for infection peak', surely?

The plan was for things to be worse than they are. That plan went wrong, unexpectedly, (which is good!). I don't think anyone was predicting or planning for cases to fall on re-opening though?

@sashagabadon
That analysis would be interesting and I'd love to do it instead my full time analyst job at a bank if someone paid the same salary :)
The first hurdle would be to select the data to use. Hard data is obvious, but the soft data would be fascinating to go through. and relating to mn... it would be a very interesting to do a social listening exercise on MN as well as other sm platform. Cross reference with mainstream media and with their respective reach/crossover. then cross reference that with the somewhat hard data points, like google mobility data or zoe app.
and if that wouldn't be a big task in itself see how the message gets diluted (skewed?) as it passes down the line. Just on this last point point - analysing differences in this and then in case/hosp data from other countries would yield some interesting results i think.
It would require a balanced team though. I know I tend to focus on comms and messaging. From the top of my head, the absolute first problem would be to put together the list of what disciplines are needed in the group apart from a couple of data scientists. ...
I wish I was a millionaire with a lot of cash to spare...

[quote Cornettoninja]@MarshaBradyo maybe so, but it was luck (so far) that a summer peak didn’t result in overwhelming the health service. There have definitely been moments it’s looked precarious, by which I mean measurements have all risen at a rate that alerts us to the possibility of a problem. A lot of it has been reliant on the assumption that vaccines will have the desired impact and that the public will take them up.

I’m personally feeling optimistic now it’s looking like all the measurements are showing signs of stabilisation but we could have (imho should have) been far more cautious and lifted things incrementally. I can’t agree that we’ve (as a country) have acted responsibly even with retrospect.[/quote]
I don’t think it’s luck I think he’s that good ;

He said we’d be cautious and we have been which has helped.

No not necessarily rising still if peak has been reached for current level of restrictions

That last line re wouldn’t it still be rising if he was right