Over two weeks since The Big Reopening...

[TheVampiresWife]

...and so far, the carnage predicted by some on MN has not come to pass. Indeed the opposite seems to be true. This from my local newspaper suggests that in the north east (where we had the highest rates in the UK just a few weeks ago) we're doing far better than was expected by this point. It's worth remembering that Newcastle is renowned as a party city and the clubs have been busy since they reopened at 12.01am on 19 July. We would definitely expect to be seeing a surge in infections by now, if it was going to happen.

And for those who will jump on to say that less testing/schools being off will skew the data - that's addressed in the article, and the proportional rate of infection/testing.

In my local area the rate was almost 1500/100k just three or four weeks ago, now it's less than 300. I'm sure the naysayers will be along shortly to tell us that the data is noisy/unreliable/not to be trusted, but let's hope all the predictions of 100k cases a day and 'calm before the storm' are wildly off. It certainly is looking that way.

we could have (imho should have) been far more cautious and lifted things incrementally

I think we have, tbh, as a country, lifted things incrementally, despite the government. Still loads of mask wearing and people being cautious despite 'Freedom Day' when it was all supposed to come to an end.

That’s a fair point @noblegiraffe. I hadn’t thought of it like that!

I wonder if he was looking at France, at various points, before vaccines, they’ve managed to keep cases stable. High from our perspective because we’ve not managed it before vaccines, but stable. They had a run over the winter of approximately 20k cases per day for a while.

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@sashagabadon
That analysis would be interesting and I'd love to do it instead my full time analyst job at a bank if someone paid the same salary :)
The first hurdle would be to select the data to use. Hard data is obvious, but the soft data would be fascinating to go through. and relating to mn... it would be a very interesting to do a social listening exercise on MN as well as other sm platform. Cross reference with mainstream media and with their respective reach/crossover. then cross reference that with the somewhat hard data points, like google mobility data or zoe app.
and if that wouldn't be a big task in itself see how the message gets diluted (skewed?) as it passes down the line. Just on this last point point - analysing differences in this and then in case/hosp data from other countries would yield some interesting results i think.
It would require a balanced team though. I know I tend to focus on comms and messaging. From the top of my head, the absolute first problem would be to put together the list of what disciplines are needed in the group apart from a couple of data scientists. ...
I wish I was a millionaire with a lot of cash to spare...[/quote]
Trouble is the findings would be instantly politicised and pulled apart to the nth degree and used to prove or disprove everyone’s previous opinion. So ultimately a waste of time

And yes I agree we did open slowly. Freedom day was a media invention. The road map was published in Feb. Most restrictions were lifted in May.
I prefer the trust the public approach. We don’t need a legal mandate to wear a mask.

@sashagabadon

And yes I agree we did open slowly. Freedom day was a media invention. The road map was published in Feb. Most restrictions were lifted in May. I prefer the trust the public approach. We don’t need a legal mandate to wear a mask.

Completely agree with this. It has been slow and individual companies/ organisations making decisions is far better.

The other good thing re Whitty and co is they get behaviour by public and build it in before it happens.

@sashagabadon
yes and no.
obv. point, not going to debate that :(

but... what if the methodology could be used to analyze multiple very different countries to try to come up with a global playbook of actions that can be taken in cases like these?

Maybe even run it for diff topics, like climate change.

I would love to believe (I don't) that people can come together in a crisis. People might, but as soon as you put countries as entities in the mix it falls apart....
I like to think I'm a pragmatist, and I still feel that we are heading into quite a dark era as humanity. Which will not stop me enjoying every moment as best as I can :) but don't have high hopes for future generations, unless things radically change. and they won't unless triggered. And when triggered it's almost too late usually.

It's great that cases peaked but is this not partly down to the lifting of restrictions coinciding with the circuit break of school holidays? Have cases also now started rising again after the recent drop? We are still seeing 30k per day positive cases and our local hospital is treating very sick younger people with covid. I want to be optimistic but feel we are nowhere near over this. I don't know if my views put me in the 'doom spreader' category. I'm not getting paid and I don't have health anxiety. My husband is CEV but still working. I'm concerned about him but just as concerned about another Autumn/Winter of disruption in particular with my now Y12 and Y11 kids.

It is good news and I'm optimistic, life feels so much more normal. When the mask restrictions were lifted quite a few still wearing but that seems to be lessening by the day which is good to see.

So if cases had gone up, then to would have been part of the Government's cunning plan to get infections over with?

But now that infections have gone down, it shows that opening up on "Freedom Day" was the correct course of action?

Well, it's better than higher cases I guess.

@herecomesthsun

So if cases had gone up, then to would have been part of the Government's cunning plan to get infections over with?

But now that infections have gone down, it shows that opening up on "Freedom Day" was the correct course of action?

Well, it's better than higher cases I guess.

It wasn’t a cunning plan it was proposed path by CMO

If you think you know more I don’t know take a job doing advising

Cases could rise again idk but each week that passes more and more get vaccinated so unless you want restrictions forever this stage had to happen at some point. If most vaccinated then when would you?

Anyway some people are very negative and can’t change even in midst of good news. Depressing for them but luckily for everyone else we don’t have to worry they have the right approach.

No, it's really good that cases went down.

It isn't entirely clear that this was expected at this point by the CMO, though I broadly support his plans.

I can spell out my point a bit more though.

Whichever way this went, it would be possible to put a political spin on it that favours the Government. Clear enough?

Whatever happens posters will spin it as bad.

That’s clear.

I don't think anyone is saying it's bad!

@herecomesthsun
the numbers are climbing regardless of less pcr tests being carried out. Which is not a good sign. On the other hand numbers are climbing very slowly, which is good.
I have a feeling that the numbers falling/not rocketing has something to do with ppl not testing so they can go on holiday and when there will be a real need to test (eg mandatory in schools, workplaces) we will see numbers going up. Or gov will retroactively and in total silence add numbers that they found in the back of the sofa at some point(s).
I am vexed as in why the numbers dropped off. There is no logical reason. and I don't like where there is no logical reason :)

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@herecomesthsun
the numbers are climbing regardless of less pcr tests being carried out. Which is not a good sign. On the other hand numbers are climbing very slowly, which is good.
I have a feeling that the numbers falling/not rocketing has something to do with ppl not testing so they can go on holiday and when there will be a real need to test (eg mandatory in schools, workplaces) we will see numbers going up. Or gov will retroactively and in total silence add numbers that they found in the back of the sofa at some point(s).
I am vexed as in why the numbers dropped off. There is no logical reason. and I don't like where there is no logical reason :)

I truly wish we could move away from lockdown vs freedom debate.
It is so much more nuanced.
I want to feel safe. but I don't want lockdown unless absolutely necessary. So my thinking is: what other -non-invasive- measures can we, as a society, do to avoid it.
And yet, when I say "pls. wear a mask" I'm bombarded by being negative, wanting lockdown, being paranoid,etc pick your choice.
And when I think about september and about 10m unvaccinated kids going into the mosh pits called school I am not happy to say the least.
Why isn't the uproar about making schools/workplaces safe/safer eather than let it rip and then we'll close it if it reaches a certain point?
and in what way is this being negative or doom mongering

I was delighted to see the fall in numbers with ONS yesterday.

It is also true that the high % who test +ve suggest there may be low numbers testing.

It's not doom mongering to want more precautions in schools., or to think (like the CMO) that wearing a mask in crowded indoor places is a good idea.

Masks are being worn in public places.

On transport in London we still are and most shops I go in to.

I am vexed as in why the numbers dropped off. There is no logical reason. and I don't like where there is no logical reason

The most infected groups are young people, and we've got the school holidays for school kids and increasing vaccinations in the 18-24 group?

Not much change in other age groups.

The numbers for age2 - year 6 and year 7 - 11 are looking pretty stable though?

August is an unusual month though with school holidays and lots of things closing and people having time off. Plus the weather is generally more suited to outdoor activities.

If the plan was some kind of a boost to herd immunity - thinking someone having covid in August, whether vaccinated or not, that would pretty much ensure they don't get covid again in December or January - then isn't it a problem the expected spike in cases hasn't happened?

Herecomes, they appear to have peaked on 22nd July for primary and 25th July for secondary. Would be happier if they were coming down faster though.

Y12 to age 24 infections peaked on 16th July which is around when cases started falling?

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@herecomesthsun
the numbers are climbing regardless of less pcr tests being carried out. Which is not a good sign. On the other hand numbers are climbing very slowly, which is good.
I have a feeling that the numbers falling/not rocketing has something to do with ppl not testing so they can go on holiday and when there will be a real need to test (eg mandatory in schools, workplaces) we will see numbers going up. Or gov will retroactively and in total silence add numbers that they found in the back of the sofa at some point(s).
I am vexed as in why the numbers dropped off. There is no logical reason. and I don't like where there is no logical reason :)