Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

And this is why I’m suggesting that recently acquired immunity in the 18-29 age group could possibly be important in explaining the recent downward trends.

Tables of latest case rates in England to 25th July along with the four preceding weeks.

Starting with East of England

East Midlands

Inner London

North East

North West

Outer London

South East

South West

West Midlands

Yorkshire and the Humber

Nice to see Thanet bringing up the rear of a chart. It goes with the maps I posted yesterday.

And this is why I’m suggesting that recently acquired immunity in the 18-29 age group could possibly be important in explaining the recent downward trends.

Yes, I agree.

Interestingly, if we had achieved a natural HIT threshold we could have expected a very slow decline, not a sudden drop.

I am wondering if we had been close to the HIT threshold in some areas in early July with Bolton and Blackburn potentially leading the way. Both places might have peaked naturally and started the expected slow decline (with occasional ebbs and flows). However, a series of super spreading events (Euro 2020 matches) pushed R up massively across whole of England and led to "front loading" of infections in susceptible population (younger age groups who have not yet been fully vaccinated).

When Euro finished, R went back down and by then the pool of susceptible population has been significantly depleted. The expected slow decline turned into the fast drop.

I don't know if it makes sense but this is my current hypothesis.

I’m noting that Boris Johnson is urging caution in interpreting the figures!

Its wise for all of us to be cautious surely.

What I find strange is how consistent the drop in cases is across all local authorities. If it was down to herd immunity wouldn't different places be reaching their peak at different times?

Maybe an artifical peak caused by the football makes more sense as cases would be more likely to fall back everywhere.

If it was down to herd immunity wouldn't different places be reaching their peak at different times?

They would... unless there is a HIT "overshoot" triggered by Euro 2020.

The second alternative is a "wave within a wave". I think it was Mark Woolhouse (one of SAGE scientists) who suggested that as an option.

Government has to assume it is the latter hence the cautious messaging.

I like these graphs showing the percentage in hospital vaccinated and unvaccinated. Very clear to see how well the vaccines are working.

mobile.twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1420074353505546241

@lonelyplanet, those graphs are very encouraging regarding the vaccinations!

Government has to assume it is the latter hence the cautious messaging.

Well that would be a turn up for the books!

So, one thing I keep thinking about, but never when near the computer.

Why are the male football fans who drove the Euro increase all single? or what stopped them transmitting it to their partners, given the single young male is (reportedly, and I think logically) the least compliant and likely to test, you would've thought it would've been those with partners, or still living at home who would've tested.

But then, in that case, we should've seen a lag where the female cases peaked shortly after with a sensible lag - but they never did in the stats? WHY?

Why are the male football fans who drove the Euro increase all single?
If you look at some of the videos, you wouldn't wonder.

More seriously, some did pass it on to girlfriends, a couple of work colleagues for example. Again also, we have multiple impacts that may have influenced this and may have had a compounded effect:

1. More young women than men got jabbed and longer ago, long enough to be double jabbed
2. Delta hits harder and earlier; more effective isolation
3. Age; lots aren't yet living with girlfriends, so were not with them in the infectious period.

[quote ncnoclue]@User135644 most schools only closed on Friday?[/quote]
Nottinghamshire schools don't close until tomorrow, and I believe the same in areas of Birmingham and a few other local authorities. I find it hard to believe this drop is down to schools considering a lot only close this week.

4. men are the weaker sex

Yes, really they are when it comes to infectious diseases esp COVID. ICU has constantly, since March 2020, had a preponderance of male beds. They get it worse, they get it more readily.

But then, in that case, we should've seen a lag where the female cases peaked shortly after with a sensible lag - but they never did in the stats?

They did in Scotland. There was a localised smaller peak in female cases exactly 4 days after the main peak in the male group.

I haven't seen a similar graph for England but boys3's table indicates that there was a secondary peak of cases on July 19 (exactly 4 days after the final). It could be the household members and girlfriends of the football fans.