Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Am afraid I’m as confused as the BBC on this one!

it's quite normal for a child to attend 3 or 4 different activities over a week

But such widely mixing kids would've had it by now, as per the different population infection immunity mentioned by RichardGere and WinterTravel above.

If delta really is infectious, these big mixers would've had it earlier on, too little chance at the prevalence to avoid if they go lots of places.

@JanFebAnyMonth

Am afraid I’m as confused as the BBC on this one!

All that has been 'officially' announced is here:

Sajid Javed's announcement

and here:
Schools - see the section on 'Tracing Close Contacts and islation'

As far as I can find, nothing has yet been announced that contradicts these two.

kids going to different activities in areas that are low risk wouldn't necessarily have had covid by now

@sirfredfredgeorge

it's quite normal for a child to attend 3 or 4 different activities over a week

But such widely mixing kids would've had it by now, as per the different population infection immunity mentioned by RichardGere and WinterTravel above.

If delta really is infectious, these big mixers would've had it earlier on, too little chance at the prevalence to avoid if they go lots of places.

I'm not sure.

In many areas, Delta amongst children only really got going quite late on last term, and the HUGE amount of self-isolation of contacts removed children from both school and after-school activities, as well as parents pro-actively removing children from both school and other activities over the final couple of weeks to protect family holidays.

In those areas where Delta only became rife in July, then I don't think there will have been time for the true spread amongst children to have taken place.

23k cases today.... feeling optimistic.

Deaths over 100 though.

@ncnoclue

23k cases today.... feeling optimistic.

Deaths over 100 though.

If you’d told me last Monday, that next Monday the cases will be 23000! It’s unbelievable.

By Monday, I mean Tuesday. Mondays data. Brain fried.

Those deaths are of course backdated though. The highest day so far in this wave is 76 deaths recorded on 19th July. If you look at the last 5 days as lag it's possible some of those days will exceed that. I guess the high hospitalisations today tie in with the days with the highest case numbers roughly around 10 days ago (14/15/16 July). Fingers crossed. Tests fallen but not by as much as positives.

Hospilisation increase seems to be following the same pattern as cases did in the middle of last week when case doubling time started extending. Now 18 days doubling time for those admitted to hospital and 16days for those in hospital. If it continues we should start seeing a reduction in those being admitted within the next week, maybe even by the weekend.

What is the positivity rate of LFT does anyone know?

We’re now into the 8th week since many large vaccination sites started opening to over 18s - Twickenham Stadium Late May Bank Holiday was 8 weeks ago yesterday - so presumably a lot of the highly social 18-30s have now had at least one vaccine, and many will now have had two. I know prior to Twickenham I was looking on jealously at those over 18s in Bolton etc. that we’re getting vaccinated “early”.

@Ontopofthesunset

Those deaths are of course backdated though. The highest day so far in this wave is 76 deaths recorded on 19th July. If you look at the last 5 days as lag it's possible some of those days will exceed that. I guess the high hospitalisations today tie in with the days with the highest case numbers roughly around 10 days ago (14/15/16 July). Fingers crossed. Tests fallen but not by as much as positives.

Do we also think the high death figure might also have something to do with the issues they had with death figures towards the end of last week?

I’m sure there was a couple of days they were having issues?

What is good to see is the consistent decline in cases. If it was purely just down to people not testing we would have just down to a certain level and stayed or increased as more people start testing again. This is 7 days running of lower cases which I would think shows a real decline. Just hope by next Monday that hospital admissions start dropping too :)

Quick look at the age breakdown of cases in England, primarily 15th (peak for specimen date) and last Thursday's rates and numbers released today.

Last two weeks plus the 2 previous Thursdays for further context. Final two columns just compare 15th and 22nd showing absolute change and percentage change.

One table for 7 day rates per 100,000 and one for actual daily case numbers.

If it was purely just down to people not testing we would have just down to a certain level and stayed or increased as more people start testing again

Yes, there is no real mechanism for the compliance of people to test to be continuously falling whilst at the same time R is above 1 (since even as more people refused to test, there would also be more people with symptoms if there were cases, and if the people weren't compliant R would also increase as people didn't isolate.

Non-compliance is simply not a viable justification for falling cases over a few cycles of infection that I can see, i.e. if 50% of people who were testing decided not to test overnight, then rates would immediately half, but from that position they would then grow again, and grow faster (due to half not isolating) that's not the data.

kids going to different activities in areas that are low risk wouldn't necessarily have had covid by now

Of course not, but then they would continue to be in low risk areas, as I said there's the additional risk of holiday break ups extending spreaders into these low risk areas, that's the context of my comment, and it would be from individuals in the low risk area returning with it - the high risk areas are already falling.

The key seems to be schools. As soon as they go back in September it'll go crazy again, especially as kids will be unvaccinated.

@User135644 most schools only closed on Friday?

@BigWoollyJumpers

Not specifically data, but from the horses mouth as it were. DH just back from testing site. So this is a large drive in, a few hundred a hour capacity. Today 1 person per hour in coming in. DH was the only car. DH chatted to the tester, who said that two weeks ago, rammed, queueing, no free spots, full of youngsters, which matches our, and the data, observations. Last week it quietened down, and this week, they are effectively empty.

I hope he gets well soon. Effectively empty sounds great!

[quote ncnoclue]@User135644 most schools only closed on Friday?[/quote]
And where they closed earlier (NI for example) cases have risen, driven by 20-somethings at large gatherings

Non-compliance is simply not a viable justification for falling cases over a few cycles of infection that I can see, i.e. if 50% of people who were testing decided not to test overnight, then rates would immediately half, but from that position they would then grow again, and grow faster (due to half not isolating) that's not the data.

These threads are an education in how to consider data

I read a great book on the this (risk - dan gardener) that is an exercise on considering what we’re reading and what it’s actually saying.

As you were - nothing of value to add, just marvelling at what different people see in the same set of data.

Thanks, boys3. This is great analysis that shows why it is not all about schools (although I am sure new posters will keep coming here saying the same thing again and again). The absolute numbers illustrate the point very clearly.

@User135644

The key seems to be schools. As soon as they go back in September it'll go crazy again, especially as kids will be unvaccinated.

You're by no means the only one, but it's really confusing to me how each wave has cases led by 18-29yo, yet the carrier is consistently suggested to be younger kids. Most parents and teachers of school age are in 30s-50s, not 20s. Child cases wouldn't rise AFTER this age group if it was schools; they would rise first, or not at all if asymptomatic must be claimed (having heard of multiple kids of friends with covid, no it actually isn't asymptomatic, sorry). Ockam's Razor; those at the age to socialise most have cases rise first, known risks to all their socialising activity, therefore it's socialising in parties, pubs etc that's the cause of increases. Why doesn't that make sense to you?

dons tin foil hard hat

So many people are far too surprised with the drop in numbers, in September they found many cases down the back of the sofa. I'm still cautious

Sorry - Ockham! (Or Occam if you aren't a philosopher).