Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Sorry - meant to say - exactly 4 days after the football fans attending the final got tested positive (on July 15).

Although the 19th slight uplift could be nothing more than it being a Monday. No one age group stands out; aside the 15-34s having the biggest fall percentage wise as compared with any of the other age groups. Intriguingly every age group from 60 upwards had more cases on the 19th than the 15th, so perhaps more case of rushing off to tell grannie and grandad about their exploits

Which then begs the question if the Euros was just 7 games with England playing, albeit with fan zones and presumably lots of group watching, when the football season starts proper - fans going to 40+ games twice a week, still watching together in pubs etc what might happen.

Leading on nicely into vaccination rates by council area for the 18-39s. I've been a bit tardy here as these are from the NHS file published last week, which itself has a lag, however I don't think the dashboard has a download with every council and every age band in a single file.

Excuse made these are the top 15 and bottom 15 by 1st Dose uptake (from that NHS file).

As such

• 1st and 2nd Dose numbers administered for the 18-39 age groups
• 18-39 NIMS population
• 1st and 2nd Dose percentage uptake
• 1st and 2nd Dose uptake ranks, with the sort by 1st Dose rank

I did think about putting in the deprivation rank, until I realised that the NHS stats use the latest local authorities; so all the Northants councils now split between the unimaginatively named North and West Northamptonshire (never knew it was an L shaped county); and it all started to become a bit of a faff. a disappointing lack of commitment to the thread but hey-ho...

No huge shocks between the top and bottom 15; aside perhaps Boston, given another Lincolnshire council is 2nd highest. Although that one looks to be in the 15% of least deprived councils.

This then was the full top 30

31-60

61-90

91-120

or the real 91-120; last table posted was 121-150

151 to 180

(The main aim in Northants was not to make pretty names but to get out of the massive financial mess the council had created)

181 to 210

211 to 240

241 to 270

271 to 300 - the final end of the list 301-307* are of course in the very first table posted.

Thanks @boys3. Can see why the govt is starting to go a bit hardline on those who haven’t accepted their invitations yet!

@AnyFucker, your contributions are always appreciated!

@JanFebAnyMonth indeed. Although having posted all those tables perhaps showing the ONS 18-39 population estimate might have given a further perspective.

Just looking at the final table. Cambridge 18-39 population 94,010; I just double checked that the figure actually is correct - and indeed it is. However the latest - mid year 2020 based - ONS estimate for that age range is 52,139; use the latter and of course we'd get a very different take up percentage.

I think that several people on the thread have alluded to this - although we know how many people have had first / second dose; its a bit hit and miss as to how many people this is out of.

I like to keep my beady eye on you

Cambridge was a standout example of different pop figures, wasn’t it?

@anyfucker, 😦

If I'm reading this right, it appears that the issue about vaccine effectiveness in Israel was a false alarm? Wonder who was doing their maths 🤔

mobile.twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1420061874327072773

@Bordois it was Nanny

I am one of your lurkers! Thanks for these threads.

I’m watching the news and reading the headlines and I’m struggling to get a measure of what is happening and expected to happen in September in the UK and I can’t quite keep up with your posts here. How can a ‘time poor’ person best inform themselves.

What I want to do is make the right decision regarding my young children come September.

I’ve just downloaded Twitter but I’ve lost that post with suggested people to follow. News channel wise (or perhaps there is a regular program or podcast) what do you like? I’m getting very little out of watching BBC24 when I’m cooking etc. it’s very repetitive.

Thanks!

I am not convinced anyone right now knows exactly what September is going to look like - personally I am not sure we are going to have any idea what the impact of school openings will be until we know where we are at the end of August and then what happens when Schools are back

I think maybe another week to see the lay of the land might give some predictions

It's hard to tell where we'll be at the end of August, but might be worth following what happens in Scotland when schools reopen.

Thanks yes I understand. Is there anyone (broadcaster?) you feel is reliable for information if one isn’t great at scrutinising data? I’m also interested in the current situation, I’ve never known so many positive friends and family (and with one of them with severe covid) I am not interested in exposing my kids to it.