Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@nordica 300k new downloads is a really surprising number to me, although I have heard radio adverts and seen some ads on Reddit encouraging people to get it/keep it.

Like @JanFebAnyMonth points out it’ll be interesting to see what role it plays after the isolation/contact requirements change. I don’t know if it’ll be pings to test but that would make sense.

Is it not possible that quite a few people have initially downloaded the NHS Covid app by mistake instead of the ordinary NHS app, thinking that that's what they need to confirm their vaccination status? I would be interested to know how many new downloaders subsequently turn on contact tracing.

@GingerAndTheBiscuits

Anybody know how the ups and downs correlate with vaccine uptake in those areas? Where I am is at 73.7% adults double vaccinated, and rates look like they’ve dropped 2/3 in a fortnight. Are rates dropping just as quickly in places with lower uptake?

@GingerAndTheBiscuits

These are the 12 councils with the current highetst rates, ranked 1 to 12, along with their second dose uptake percentage and rank (where a low number reflects the highest uptake rates).

The oddity I suppose is North Kesteven. In Lincolnshire and looks to border Lincoln, and seems to contain a number of Lincoln suburbs, which looking at a map look like part of Lincoln, but clearly on how the council borders are drawn are allocated to this other council area.

Looking a bit closer at Lincoln; 70% of cases in the last seven days in the 15-29 age bands. Just 1.5% in those age 60 and over.

Slight age creep in North Kesteven as compared with Lincoln; but not hugely, 4.1% of cases in those aged 60 and over (though still meaning 95% elsewhere).

Bournemouth last seven days case age profile

and for a bit more context the breakdown in England overall

Thanks for the tables, boys3.

Something of a contrast between Exeter and Blackpool

Does look like the students in Lincoln then.

also in the highest 10 current cases Sheffield (slight uptick in past week) and Middlesbrough (fairly rapid downward trajectory). Again quite contrasting figures.

If a significant proportion of people isolated when pinged by the app (I read figures of >1 million at one point) then maybe that’s what tipped us back into a downward trend.

1 million pings, not 1 million people, there's no way to know how many people (unless the app is not as anonymous as claimed)

300k new downloads is a really surprising number to me The app stores include new phone installs etc. where the app is downloaded again simply because a user is upgrading phone/factory resetting etc. and had the app before as a download, it does not mean they're in use.

Does look like the students in Lincoln then

certainly the younger cohort; the highest current MSOA rate possibly also gives it away :)

Although quite a few of the top 25 MSOAs are clearly on a downward trajectory; just not those in Lincoln (or Bournemouth or Exeter).

Thanks so much @boys3, you’re a whizz.

I dont understand why Bournemouth is so high!

More great tables, boys3. It is very interesting to compare and contrast LAs at the start and - hopefully - the end of the summer wave.

Lincoln and Exeter are on the wave up so they are reporting cases in the younger population that will eventually - unfortunately and inevitably - spillover into older age groups.

Middlesbrough is on the way down so while we are seeing higher spillover cases in 60s+ and young children, the general trend is moving in the right direction.

I dont understand why Bournemouth is so high!

Bournemouth and many other LAs in South West and East Midlands are done yet fully "through" the summer wave (in comparison to NE and most of NW). They have not been hit as hard as NE or NW.

Cases may still go up before they go down.

My guess is that Bournemouth's story might be similar to Lincoln's (large clusters in hospitality/nightlife sector).

This is very useful in working out places to avoid in the next week or 2.

@GiantToadstool

I dont understand why Bournemouth is so high!

I gather things have gone downhill generally since Christchurch and Poole got tacked on. Dodgy lot on Sandbanks.

These are the rates for BCP MSOAs - a very significant proportion are in the top 1000 (out of nearly 7000) nationally. On a positive though some which look to have peaked a few weeks ago are on a downward trajectory. The current lowest rate MSOA - West Cliff - had a rate close to 800 per 100,000 a few weeks back.

It's interesting that Boscombe East is the area with the lowest rate, as it is a high deprivation area (maybe it was higher previously?)

I hope the elderly population in that area will be ok.

here lowest rate in the first half of MSOAs in BCP; unfortunately there's another 24 after that one on the next page.

@boys3 When it says "rank:4" is that 4 nationally?

Seaside/ holiday places? Bournemouth / Torbay/ Blackpool?

@herecomesthsun that would be a yes (national being England for MSOAs)

Knowing what you lot can be like; in case of an early frenzy of Friday posts next thread ready to go here www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4314766-Data-Stats-Daily-Numbers-started-5th-August-2021

However lets finish this one off first before getting stuck into the next one. :)