Uk coronavirus deaths predicted to be 66,000 the worst in Europe, 2nd worse in world.

[HerstoryInTheMaking]

Why does this not surprise me. We were appalling slow to allow lockdown. Govt u-turn on herd immunity. Allowing Cheltenham and other events to go ahead. Those in charge need to be held accountable when this is over.

metro.co.uk/2020/04/07/uk-set-66000-coronavirus-deaths-becoming-worst-hit-europe-12521377/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Well there's long way to go yet. All those countries who locked gown early can't stay locked dkwn forever. Short of a vaccine, many more people will likely have to get this at some point.

Interesting. It would be good to see that graph in more detail. How does Sweden fare in this model?

It’d obviously be awful, but it’s one hell of a lot better than the 500k they were talking about if nothing was done. Horrific for all affected but if 99.9% of the population survive this I think that’s fairly good going.

@esjee Most people will have to catch it before the vaccine is available but the idea is that they catch it slowly.
Several countries who locked down earlier have now announced their strategies to go back to normal life.

Mmmmm! I can think of a few reasons why much of that will turn out to be absurd.

Thinking of some African nations, some areas of India etc.

But also the modelling itself... we already know that no 2 countries are measuring CV the same way, so ALL models offering a comparison are, of necessity, flawed.

And a squillion and one other reasons.

This shit is bad enough as it is without adding more doomsday predictions to the mix

Much less probably than China, few people believe their figures

I think the key part of that link are the words "more to follow"

relative populations?

metro is a fuckwit millenial publication at the best of times.

@CuriousaboutSamphire "Thinking of some African nations, some areas of India etc."

Bit racist
India went into lockdown early rather than pursuing a herd immunity plan of deliberately trying to get 60% of its population infected with a disease with a 1-2% fatality rate. India has provided adequate PPE to its healthcare workers unlike here where my colleagues have had to beg local people and companies on Facebook to get masks to allow them to care for people. India has successfully isolated and eliminated SARS, swine flu, bird flu outbreaks through a robust public health approach, following WHO guidance which our "British Exceptionalism" experts like Jenny Harries scoff at and say is only for poor countries. Just a really colonional-era attitude to look on developing countries this way as if they have no experience in handling infectious disease epidemics, when we have handled ours so incompetently

@pocketem

Your right, India have approached this much like other European countries by imposing an early lockdown.

No one in media is acknowledging how our govt went from saying Cheltenham and football matches were fine to saying you cant sunbathe in a park in less than a month. The incompetence is astonishing.

Crufts and Cheltenham taking place was appalling

And allowing 2000 Spanish football fans into Liverpool was lax.

@GirlCalledJames yeah, the point is for how long. There's a long way to go yet, 12-18 months until there's a vaccine. We won't know which country has come out of it the worst until then.

herstory
migguns
And yet 3 weeks after Cheltenham there is no spike or hot spot in deaths or cases in gloucestershire? How did 200,000 people come to a small town and party 24/7 for 4 days and not cause any rise at all in the cases or death rate ...... how did that happened?

India's figures are likely to be inaccurate. They have low levels of testing and spend, as a proportion of their GDP, less than any other country in the world.

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/india-coronavirus-cases-rise-amid-fears-true-figure-much-higher

They did lockdown quickly though, with the benefit of hindsight of experiencing what other countries were doing.

66,000? as I understand it that's quite a low estimate.

I would wait for full year death figures (from all causes) before gloating//ranting too much.

What justification is there for us having over 3 times the deaths of the next worst affected nation in this modelling?
I don't get it.

Here is their actual data. It does not make much sense to me as some of the data which feeds the model seems way off e.g the number of UK icu beds in the model is just 799 so they are predicting a huge number of deaths based on bed shortage
covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

Noname99

Because numerically most cases from those events will have contracted the illness from contact with all the "patient zeros", so to speak, of that event, who caught it there and took it home. R0 of approximately 4-6. Exponential. That 2nd generation of cases will be day 7 to 20 and many will still be fighting it out at home, attempting to avoid hospital. Then there is the exponentially 3rd generation and 4th generation, who will report to hospital the week after and the weeks after that.

IIRC, it was approximately a 3 week lead time from that enormous Milan football game to the explosion of cases in Italy.

So, watch this space.

How did 200,000 people come to a small town and party 24/7 for 4 days and not cause any rise at all in the cases or death rate ...... how did that happened?
Is it that people from all over the country went there so infection rates and deaths are spread out over the country? (Although I must admit I'd still expect a spike in Cheltenham).

@Noname99 - I think the suggestion is that there was a limited number of people infected in the Cheltenham area but loads of people got infected in the crowded conditions and spread it all over the country.

Bearing in mind it was only the 16th - 19th of March, with a week or two weeks to show symptoms, a week to suffer at home and then deterioration requiring hospital treatment the week after that, since people are only tested going into hospital, it will start showing up in the statistics this week and next. Everyone infected by the race goers will start showing up towards the end of April.

Some of you sound really thick. Lockdowns are not the only method of dealing with this pandemic you know.
But carry on wittering away about things you clearly don't understand, if it makes you feel better.

It's most likely nonsense fear-mongering. India have large numbers living in slums where a lockdown will likely have virtually no effect on people mixing and social distancing completely impossible. Do you think these people will have access to testing/healthcare let alone have their deaths recorded?

There is no way there will be more deaths from covid in UK than India, that's just not going to happen. Whether those deaths are attributed to vivid is a different matter.
India has 1.2 bn people, population densities are very high in urban areas, many people will die as a result of this virus either directly from it, or because of loss of work/starvation.

And it's not a fucking competition.
We don't need a league table to salivate over,FFS