Uk coronavirus deaths predicted to be 66,000 the worst in Europe, 2nd worse in world.

[HerstoryInTheMaking]

Why does this not surprise me. We were appalling slow to allow lockdown. Govt u-turn on herd immunity. Allowing Cheltenham and other events to go ahead. Those in charge need to be held accountable when this is over.

metro.co.uk/2020/04/07/uk-set-66000-coronavirus-deaths-becoming-worst-hit-europe-12521377/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

alloutoffucks I actually think you are going to be quite gutted if it turns out we've managed to contain this thing better or at least no worse than many other countries. You seem to be very heavily invested in discrediting BJ and our government and its eminent advisors on the matter.

I think it’s hard to judge given that we don’t know for sure how countries are reporting deaths.
I’m a GP, and it’s only been in the last week that we’ve been asked to notify Covid deaths to public health. All the ones we diagnosed (based on symptoms) before that date aren’t recorded.
We have no testing facility, so it’s guesswork anyway. We’re not examining many people for obvious reasons, but talking to many. Everyone thinks they’ve got it, but we only have their word for the symptoms they have, so we’re often not sure whether to code and notify anyway.
Deaths and causes of death are being handled very strangely now. If we think someone had Covid, and they subsequently die, we’ve been asked to put Covid as the cause of death, even if they were found collapsed at home, without anyone having seen what happened. They could have had a heart attack, or stroke, or anything - and usually there would be a post mortem. But not any more.
It all makes for stats that are difficult to interpret.

powerslide they don't know if its successful or not.

And surely we can't believe on anything out of China?

It has not yet been proven what the best strategy is.

midge yes I would say under 10%.

Still more than other countries though and it does have to be done in a way to protect NHS.

Now capacity has been added it will be interesting to see what the plan is.

I guess in a way we are behind some other countries so we can see what works and does 't work.

The Cheltenham thing IS interesting. You would expect a spike locally. A lot of the catering and the staff involved were local.

I am in surrounding county to Cheltenham.
It's very popular locally and people did go.

I've genuinely not seen much chatter about CV cases due to Cheltenham (doesn't mean it's not the case, just I'm not aware)

Also no sudden spike in school age children or teachers getting it, which everyone said would happen because the schools weren't shut early enough.

covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

Is this based on the number of beds before the nightingale/scaling up of ITU beds etc was put in place? As the deaths must surely be attributed to the lack of necessary resources rather than preventing the spread?

Given that MN now thinks that you can catch the virus by waving at your mum from the bottom of her garden, Cheltenham seems neither here nor there. Supermarkets, schools, pubs and High Streets across the country were hooching with people at that point, not to mention packed buses, trains and tubes.

We'll find out soon enough but I'd be surprised if any specific gatherings caused a spike in cases.

Above is the link to the data reported in the article btw (couldn’t see it linked already in thread).

well the projection with lockdown was originaly 250k so id say thats a real low estimate

Mardi Gras in New Orleans was Feb 25. Louisiana/New Orleans only started seeing their numbers really jump in the last week. I think you have to wait longer then 3 weeks to see the impact of large events.

Still more than other countries though and it does have to be done in a way to protect NHS

The NHS is stuffed now, we'll never catch up on months of cancelled operations and tests.

Now capacity has been added it will be interesting to see what the plan is
See above where the capacity has come from.

I guess in a way we are behind some other countries so we can see what works and doesn't work
We haven't done that so far!!!
But why would the world's most open economy be behind other countries in CV infections?
Students, business people, FOM & and vast numbers of immigrant families travelling around the world, inc China.... yet we get it later than any other european country, with much tighter EU external border controls? doesn't make sense.

The idea in other countries is to drive down the number of people infected then as numbers drop - control the spread with extensive contact tracing and selectively lifting lockdown whilst using new medicines and tracing apps. See the numbers is germany, denmark and many asian countries. FAR lower. Many people seem to believe high numbers were inevitable - no if we had locked down earlier we would see less cases.

School children tend to get milder infections. We wouldn't expect to see a spike in cases related to children at schools as they are not testing milder cases. It would be the parents, grandparents etc who might present in hospital and ao qualify for a test. Aa we are not testing mild cases we have no idea if the older generation were infected by their school children or elsewhere.

jasjas we are not necessarily different from many countries. Do you think routine stuff is happening in Itsly / Spain?

We all realise that this is going to cause problems for years to come. But we are not unique in this country.

We are not behind with infection rate, but we did lockdown later than others so we are later to the peak. Other countries are looking to lift lockdown now. We are not there yet.

I don't know the answer. I do know we can't lockdown forever.

I am in Cheltenham, we stayed at home during race week. From anecdotal evidence locally, we have not had a great spike due to race-week because a lot of locals stayed home (as they do every year when invaded). Those who travelled on the packed trains home via city hubs - Bristol/Cardiff/Birmingham/London seem to have come off worst.

There's far more icu beds than 799, there is where their modelling fails straight off. We also have high dependency units in the U.K. which I'm not aware of in the USA.

500,000 die in the UK every year. 66k is not worth destroying the nation economically for. We need to reopen.

A lockdown is so economically destructive to a country, that it has to be judged quite finely to last the minimal amount of time. It is no cure to the virus.
An earlier poster mentioned better treatment. This is a new disease for which there is no cure. It is quite likely that some more will get it when the lockdown is lifted.
Personally, I think the large gatherings just before the first measures were introduced (Cheltenham Races? and Crufts?) maybe could have been abandoned, but frankly, I am not sure how much difference this would have made.
Some people seem to have difficulty abiding by the rules as it is, so I hope they do not get worse.
If it goes on too long, then people will just not comply. We do not have enough police to enforce it effectively.
Secondly, death statistics can be quite misleading.
Some deaths will have multiple causes, but as Covid-19 is a notifiable disease, that will often be the cause of death.
The number of deaths from China are definitely under reported.

Well, this doesn’t surprise me in the least. I’m hoping Mr Johnson pulls through. I don’t wish anyone harm but when this is over, this Tory shitshow of a Govt. need to be help fully accountable.

They’ve led us, like lambs to the slaughter.

HELD fully accountable.

They’ve led us, like lambs to the slaughter

Surely all countries will have eye watering deaths unless we stay in lockdown until widespread vaccine?

We will just go through the peaks at different rates. Poorer countries likes ours really will not fair better either.

Try not to look for blame. Viruses have been around since just life began on earth. It's just another virus doing what viruses do. Unfortunately this one is very contagious and infects our species.

Maybe if people have to lay blame maybe let's think about the number of world wide births and deaths and take comfort in the fact the even though the human race cant sustain the amount of food we consume, our numbers are still exploding.

I have seen posters on here saying we should have closed our borders in Jan so no one died as if there was ever a possibility. Clearly we did get some things wrong (lack of PPE) but we are dealing with something unknown & you definitely have to balance the behavioural side & the economy. I think some posters will be devastated if millions don't die.

Why should we believe these figures are any more reliable than the government's estimates?