Uk coronavirus deaths predicted to be 66,000 the worst in Europe, 2nd worse in world.

[HerstoryInTheMaking]

Why does this not surprise me. We were appalling slow to allow lockdown. Govt u-turn on herd immunity. Allowing Cheltenham and other events to go ahead. Those in charge need to be held accountable when this is over.

metro.co.uk/2020/04/07/uk-set-66000-coronavirus-deaths-becoming-worst-hit-europe-12521377/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

There have been predicitions that have said everything from we will have the worse death rate, to we are already starting to peak, to it won't be too bad. They are all guesswork. Albeit educated guesswork but guesswork none the less.

We don't know what the most effective means of control will be - only history will tell us that in a few year.

That was originally predicted by the daily fail.

@Noname99 I'm not sure why you'd specifically expect a huge spike in Gloucestershire, huge numbers of race goers will have gone there for the day, picked it up and taken it back to their home towns all over the country (including my BIL)

@EmMac7 The daily death toll contains two different groups of figures that are collated at different time scales. When someone dies in hospital the notification of death becomes available relatively quickly, along with the reason for death. When someone dies elsewhere - home / care home etc it takes longer for that information to feed into the system. There is a whole legal process around it and, while that varies from country to country, the same impact on data has been noted in Italy and Spain. I don't know about France.

Not everyone who dies from this virus will have needed or benefited from an ICU bed in the days preceding their death for a whole variety of reasons. For some the symptoms have developed so quickly that they go from being reasonably well to being dead in a short time. People in end of life palliative care who already have a DNR would not want to die on an ICU ward - when asked the vast majority of people say they don't want to die in hospital, so when someone is terminally ill this needs to be taken into account. If, despite their terminal illness, it is determined that coronavirus tipped them over the edge, this will be the official cause of death on their death certificate. In Germany it would be the terminal illness. Neither is wrong. We thin that my grandmother's official cause of death was wrong, but it didn't matter. She was 98. She had lost her appetite and her body packed up. Whether she had the flu or a urine infection was neither here nor there.

In a few years time we will be able to look back and see what the total number of deaths was and get a much more accurate picture of the impact that coronavirus had on mortality. Even if someone died because their elective surgery for a tumour was cancelled during the pandemic and they never contract coronavirus, it is still arguably because of the pandemic.

I hope the clever poster on another thread who found the source doesn’t mind me copy and pasting but it’s from here

IHME at University of Washington.

covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

here

I agree with @Genevieva - this is nothing more than shameful scaremongering.

One thing I’ve noticed with a lot of Mumsnetters - they seem desperate to find somebody to blame for all this, be it people flouting lockdown rules, government not locking down soon enough and so on. Why not just accept it’s a horrid disease which is very easily spread?

As for the it’s only 66k deaths from pp I assume it’s that with the lock down as it stands. More if we open everything up again now.

Marsha presumably you noticed that if you drag the cursor across the table, for reasons best known to themselves the modellers have kept the UK total number of icu beds as 799 throughout the pandemic. We had 5900 before the new hospitals were built. Why the US modellers thought we would not use our other 5,100 icu beds or add any more is beyond me. It took me 2 mins to Google how many icu beds the UK had in 2019/20.

croprotationinthe13thcentury

I agree, it's weird.

Tbh I am just pasting for others to interpret as the source. I don’t have time to read it properly right now.

Thought it useful instead of people saying it’s from a tabloid.

According to the FT graphs, this is how many days after 3 daily deaths a country locked down: Germany 3, Spain 4, France 6, UK 6, Italy 11. So we were within that range and not as late as people keep suggesting.

It is not about stopping the spread (it's unlikely that it will ever go away and could not have been kept out of any country), it's only about protecting the NHS. And hopefully learning which medicine will prevent or help with the stage 2 escalation that affects some people.

It's balls. This link will show you 4123 adult critical care beds England alone in Jan 2020. Not 799 for the whole UK.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/critical-care-capacity/critical-care-bed-capacity-and-urgent-operations-cancelled-2019-20-data/

It may well be Call but at least the info is there to assess.

That’s pretty astronomical. However far less than the 250k original number.

Idk how people can proclaim that there was no spike from Cheltenham or teachers etc. Most of these figures are hidden. No one is being tested. That’s hardly breaking news...

@Callimanco political expedience? The situation in the US is truly appalling. It is a free for all with state governors having to compete for PPE, driving the price up not just there but internationally. Meanwhile Jared Kushner, who has been given a role for which he has no relevant experience, is stockpiling it. There is no free healthcare provision for the virus and no beefed up welfare provisions to enable people to shield at home or to enable businesses to furlough staff.

We won't be able to compare numbers with places like India, where many deaths are likely to go unrecorded, only with structurally similar countries.

Only time will tell which countries will fare worse than others. I think we will have a longer lockdown and more deaths than those countries which went into an earlier, precautionary lockdown who will have low enough numbers to manage testing and quarantining of anyone with symptoms.

The truth is no one knows & will only know when they compare the amount of deaths with last years figures , even then they will be inaccurate.

The truth is no one knows & will only know when they compare the amount of deaths with last years figures , even then they will be inaccurate.

This. Most of the UK had a comparatively mild winter, deaths were actually lower than usual at the beginning of this, as few older people had died over the winter.

@tenlittlecygnets... don’t be so rude.

You think they’ve done well? Let’s see how it pans out when because of the lack of PPE, the frontline medics and specialist ICU nursing staff are so depleted, that they are themselves unable to work. Don’t you read? They’re not far from that now. Sorry if you’re a true blue Tory but they had weeks and weeks to prepare the basics. And instead, they banged on and on about herd immunity and “taking it in the chin”. Now THAT’S ridiculous.

And again with the “Labour would be worse”. We’ll never know, will we. We have a Conservative govt. that’s brought this country’s services to its knees.

We locked down at almost the same point in infection as them.

The lockdown is much stricter in Italy and Spain though.

And again with the “Labour would be worse”. We’ll never know, will we no, we don't know, but I am very relieved we didn't have JC at the helm during this.

Why the US modellers thought we would not use our other 5,100 icu beds

Is it because 5100 of them are usually occupied? I don't know, just a guess.

castorem
Obviously not every icu bed will be available but with operations cancelled and reduction in road accidents more will be available than usual. It is nonsensical to assume that only 799 icu beds will ever be available. They have also modelled based on the UK having only 17,000 hospital beds in total. The Jan number of adult acute and general beds (is not maternity, mental health etc) was actually 101,000. Not all available to CV of course. But we are building extra hospitals and using the private hospitals' beds too.