Uk coronavirus deaths predicted to be 66,000 the worst in Europe, 2nd worse in world.

[HerstoryInTheMaking]

Why does this not surprise me. We were appalling slow to allow lockdown. Govt u-turn on herd immunity. Allowing Cheltenham and other events to go ahead. Those in charge need to be held accountable when this is over.

metro.co.uk/2020/04/07/uk-set-66000-coronavirus-deaths-becoming-worst-hit-europe-12521377/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

50,000 people die each month on average, more in Feb/jan.

Yes I am saying we did not count all covid deaths or people who died WITH covid. Anyone who died from pneumonia could have had it. We will never know. This is widely being discussed by medical staff in hospitals and uni research teams. Not just me honestly!

2000 people die on average every day.

Of course we are seeing more deaths, early deaths etc but I’m amazed people don’t understand the ‘normal’ figs

Although I think there were slightly fewer deaths recorded this January and February than usual possibly due to the very mild winter. MD in Private Eye (slightly facetiously) put it down to increased hand washing.

Yes I am saying we did not count all covid deaths or people who died WITH covid.

It’s entirely possible there were some Covid deaths that were unreported in Jan and Feb, but I think is far fetched to think numbers were anything like those we are now seeing. You appear to say that Covid has been endemic here since the start of the year and that, despite being well aware of it, we’ve only noticed a spike in COVID cases and deaths since mid-March, and that there were 1,000s of COVID cases and deaths in hospitals for many weeks prior to that which were overlooked by the medical establishments of not just the UK, but Europe and the US as well! It just doesn’t stack up.

I think there will be months of analysis before we can draw conclusions

I do agree we are a long way from a peak/having herd immunity etc but I think logically more have hasn’t it globally than have been accounted for.

More have had it ...

Flipping autocorrect

I thought I read that in China they found kids weren’t actually super spreaders? They contracted the disease less and spread it round less (maybe as they had no/mild symptoms so less viral load).

I can’t remember where I read this though but I thought it was interesting as it’s normally the opposite with kids.

Viral load does appear to be a factor with the severity of this disease?

Yes, kids are far, far less likely to contract the virus and to spread it, as well as being less likely to have serious illness if they do get infected.

Why do they keep being called super spreaders? I’m v glad to hear that they are not!

Does anyone know the source of the information on children not spreading the virus? Everything I have read seems to state their role in transmission is unknown.

@crazydiamond222

The WHO report from Wuhan said that it was not known what role children play in transmission however it also said there were no reported cases of children transmitting the virus to adults, only adults to children. However, Wuhan went into lockdown on 23 January when there were only 371 cases in the whole of Hubei province. After that date, no children were having contact with anyone outside the household so it would be impossible for them to introduce the virus to a household and once one person in a household has the virus you can't know who infected who.

You can't really conclude much from such a small data sample before lockdown, especially as children mostly seem to have mild symptoms. Unless a child was severely ill and tested and the first person in the household to fall ill, you would be relying on members of the household from the 371 confirmed cases to have identified that the child was ill first, which if they didn't have the same symptoms may not have been obvious (particularly without the knowledge at the time that some people are asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms).

Thanks @goingoverground I just knew I’d read it somewhere but agree you can’t compare Wuhan to here. I just thought it was interesting.

Regarding lockdown and testing and whether we are the peak or not. Why do you think the government is spending massive amounts of money on these Nightingale hospitals. The one in Bristol won't even open until 18 April. The reason: they will relax lockdown in a few weeks and there will be a huge surge of cases that will need the thousands of extra beds in the Nightingale hospitals. It is a very depressing prospect. Even if there is a downturn in cases/deaths after this lockdown, there will be another peak, and maybe more. It is not just one of the possible models, it is reality, that is why they are creating these Nightingale hospitals for thousands of people. The UK will indeed have much worse figures of coronavirus cases and deaths than other countries, not least because the intentional lack of purchasing of PPE for healthcare staff in January and February meant that 1 in 4/5 of healthcare staff contracted the virus in March and gave it to their families, people they treated, people they passed in the supermarket. And other countries stopped travellers bringing the virus from abroad (e.g. Austria, New Zealand did this), but we still don't have any travel restrictions to our country. And Germany and Korea purchased huge amounts of testing equipment in preparation, whereas our country purchased none, and when our government tried to belatedly purchase and trial testing equipment the reliable stuff had already sold out. All of that purchasing of PPE and testing equipment should have been done in January and February. These are the factors that will result in the UK having one of the worst coronavirus situations so far in the world over the coming months.

@BigChocFrenzy
The comparatively low infection rate of the Diamond Princess - 700 passengers infected but 3,000 not - is interesting
Although they imposed quarantine measures, that was some days after the first case and people without symptoms would have been spreading it for days

I think you’re right. This is key. It chimes with the studies from Guangdong, China, which WHO backed, that showed there wasn’t the widespread community infection that was expected.

we need the new hospitals as we had lower beds per head than almost all European countries before this pandemic. We were at max capacity before this hit.

Newgirls - yes that is certainly one reason, our NHS has been underfunded for years compared to other countries due to the majority of the UK's population obsession with low taxes, repeatedly voting for a political party that favours the private sector over nationalised sectors, and the Hunt-era policy of trying to run down the state-funded NHS and try to privatise it by the backdoor. The ITU capacity and ventilator-per-head before coronavirus was shameful for a high income country.
But there are other factors: refusal to spend money on PPE and ventilators in January and February, poor planning and preparation in all other respects, unwillingness to damage the aviation industry by imposing travel restrictions (a policy that has been very effective in other countries), unwillingness to damage the betting industry and all the taxes generated from that, etc.
But I don't believe these new nightingale hospitals will be full of ventilators, since our government also left it too late to buy any of those before other countries with better planning bought the stock. My point was really to counter those people who really think that the UK will not be at top of the league tables when it comes to coronavirus or who think that lockdown should be lifted or who think that when lockdown is lifted that means that coronavirus has gone away. If anything, the indication seems to be that your chances of catching coronavirus after lockdown will be higher than before, but there will be thousands more beds in the Nightingale hospitals to treat you - but unfortunately your chances of survival will be unchanged. Also the staff are coming from other NHS hospitals, they are not magic staff who have been magicked up from somewhere. Gaps in staffing are being made up with not-yet-qualified student nurses and doctors, dentists and vets...
Also the Nightingale hospitals are planned to be open for 3-6 months. After that, we will go back to the normal underfunded NHS, and a population who say they love the NHS, moan when it is overstretched, but keep voting for a party that promises them low taxes.

I read quite an interesting article from Reuter’s yesterday.

I hate this government, just so you know.., but it was saying that Britain had modelled its programme on an influenza pandemic. Korea and China had modelled there’s on the recent SARS outbreaks.

That is apparently why Britain was initially so slow in the uptake....🤔

our NHS has been underfunded for years compared to other countries due to the majority of the UK's population obsession with low taxes

And the fact we expect every single part of it to be free.

@TheEmojiFormerlyKnownAsPrince - yes - but how stupid was Britain! Coronavirus is in the same family as SARS (its official name is SARS-COVID-19) and not the same family as influenza. It is closer to SARS than influenza, because it is a form of SARS not influenza. That is pretty basic, not hard to understand.
The medical advisors to the government basically told them what they wanted to hear (after all the government appoints advisors) - you don't need to prepare to spend any money.

Actually its official name is SARS-CoV2, it is in the family of SARS.
Yes, modelling the UK's policy and response based on influenza rather than on SARs does in retrospect look a huge, big mistake.
But actually you don't need retrospect, it was always known to be a SARS virus not an influenza virus.
The UK population has been horribly let down by the government and the advisors it appointed to tell it what it wanted to hear: no need to spend, no need to prepare, it's just like flu (don't tell people it's actually SARS or they'll panic).

I agree, they’ve messed the whole thing up. They were warned in January l think. It was a really good article, but it just disappeared, and I can’t find it now .

Great post convenience - I hope Tory voters are reading!

I’m under no illusion that this gov messed up, wanted to protect aviation etc and I never have, nor will vote for them

Here in South Africa our lockdown has been extended by another two weeks, so from next Thursday which will be five weeks lockdown. We can’t buy any alcohol or cigs, no bbqs, no exercise, not even walking our dogs so my dh and I are having to sneakout with our three at midnight because its bloody cruel not to walk them properly.
Our death rate is 19 people so far, the data is probably faulty but make of that what you will.

And there have been NO FLIGHTS in or out of SA since the lockdown began two weeks ago today , all boarders closed , so no one has arrived here from any other country.