Uk coronavirus deaths predicted to be 66,000 the worst in Europe, 2nd worse in world.

[HerstoryInTheMaking]

Why does this not surprise me. We were appalling slow to allow lockdown. Govt u-turn on herd immunity. Allowing Cheltenham and other events to go ahead. Those in charge need to be held accountable when this is over.

metro.co.uk/2020/04/07/uk-set-66000-coronavirus-deaths-becoming-worst-hit-europe-12521377/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

India sent all the non-local workers back home so moving from cities to villages.

According to their projection, today (April 7), the UK should have 12,500 patients requiring ICU beds and we only have 779 beds in the whole of the country. We haven't run out of ICU beds, which they projected we would do by March 23. My local trust has 72 adult ICU beds and 15 paediatric ICU beds. We had nearly 6k critical care beds in the UK before coronavirus. Something is wrong with their data.

We had 4000 ICU beds, plus surge capacity added.

Given our current high daily death toll, I am skeptical of the government’s claim that we are not exceeding capacity.

But that might come down to heavy triage of elderly patients and opting to not put them on ventilators.

Their figures are not accurate or reliable tbh. Where have they even got them from?

Your right, India have approached this much like other European countries by imposing an early lockdown

I may have read it incorrectly but I thinks its only European countries so not counting India.

I still don't understand why we are predicted 3x Italy.

refraction because their data is based on their being only 799 icu beds in the whole of the UK, and therefore a huge over demand.

It's bollocks basically and nothing to do with US attitudes to socialised medicine

pocket that's why I said 'some areas of India/ some African nations'

I have some idea of what is going in India as I use an Indian typing bureau and we have been discussing the differences in government and population responses.

people did not have to go to Cheltenham

they had a choice

Some want the government to do EVERYTHING and then when they do just moan about loss of liberty and how its just flu.

Everyone has become an armchair expert and its becoming boring .

lots of countries will not be recording or reporting the figures accurately or in the same way - so comparisons are pretty futile .

And I'm not far from Cheltenham. The whole county has 306 cases... We didn't get a spike in infection rates after the festival. As others have said, the locals tend to do their own lockdown during the races, which seems to have been effective.

We need 70% of the population to be infected - we won't go back to normal until we get that level of herd immunity. The measures will be enforced and relaxed to stem the flow of serious cases that end up in hospitals.

I see lots of posts on my FB feed saying that if we all stay indoors we'll beat the virus in x weeks. We won't beat the infection by staying indoors, we just need to stay indoors to protect the NHS.

My family went to Cheltenham (locals) and all ended up with symptoms. Managed at home, so wouldn’t affect numbers.

@Mintychoc1: Deaths and causes of death are being handled very strangely now. If we think someone had Covid, and they subsequently die, we’ve been asked to put Covid as the cause of death, even if they were found collapsed at home, without anyone having seen what happened. They could have had a heart attack, or stroke, or anything - and usually there would be a post mortem. But not any more.

Wow. Really? Is this in England? Could lead to the potential for people bumping off elderly family members in subtle ways, surely, if they knew there would be no PM?

@TheLadyAnneNeville

They’ve led us like lambs to the slaughter.

Don't be so melodramatic and ridiculous!! We have been given information right from the start. I think the Tories have handled the situation as well as they could have done, given the information available. Do you really think Labour would have done any better??

Plenty will die but it will be nothing to do with Cheltenham or govt being slow to respond. It will be everything to do with the fact that people need to go out to buy food to survive. Millions of people are doing this each day and, with best will in the world, supermarkets everywhere will be absolutely riddled with this disease. No point kidding ourselves otherwise. All this talk of stronger lockdown measures and moaning about people breaking the fucking rules is a complete red herring, and massively misses the point.
Moreover, the lockdown HAS worked, no matter what the doom mongers on here might say. We have reached or are close to peak deaths and cases, the hospitals ARE coping.

pocketem I agreed with you on another thread yesterday and I agree with you today.

ShootsFruitAndLeaves So Muslims are the ones spreading the virus?
The time to go into lockdown is different in each country, depending on the stage of the epidemic. Personally I think India was wrong to order a drastic lockdown at such an early stage, in a country where millions are living hand-to-mouth.

well the projection with lockdown was originaly 250k so id say thats a real low estimate

@GabsAlot, are you taking that figure from the Imperial College modelling forecast that came out on 16 March? As 250,000 was predicted then if partial lockdown measures were implemented. The lockdown we have at the mo is broader than the lockdown where 250,000 deaths were estimated. For the lockdown we have now the Imperial College report estimated around 26,000 deaths.

All this talk of stronger lockdown measures and moaning about people breaking the fucking rules is a complete red herring, and massively misses the point

Yes. People photographed in the park are very much the exception and not the rule at the moment. It’s the trips to the supermarkets that will be the “touch point” for the vast majority of people who are otherwise working from home, not working or only doing outdoor exercise once per day as the rules allow.

We actually locked down earlier than some other similar countries, don't forget we were at the "end" of the start, if that makes sense.

I am skeptical of the government’s claim that we are not exceeding capacity

The country as a whole is not exceeding capacity. Some areas are under strain, obviously, like London, so they have added capacity. We are actually behind where they predicted we would be. This is a good thing.

@Xenia

500,000 die in the UK every year. 66k is not worth destroying the nation economically for. We need to reopen

I'm surprised at you saying that. An ADDITIONAL 66,000 (if it's that low) lives are not worth it?!?!

Jesus Christ - what number do you think is worth it?!

India likely have no idea how many cases they have - think about the slums etc where they won't even know about this. And btw in indian, so no I'm not being racist

500,000 die in the UK every year. 66k is not worth destroying the nation economically for. We need to reopen

I can say one thing for you Xenia you are consistent in your right wing views.

This is a distortion of the actual research quoted, which didn't mention the UK at all. It is tabloid scaremongering. The situation is serious - pandemics are. But please don't get your information from a free tabloid trying to produce clickbate if you want to retain your sanity.

We locked down at exactly the same point as Italy did. It came later because, although our first diagnosis was only 24 hours after theirs, we didn't have any associated mortality until about 2 weeks after them. The government has been very clear from the beginning that they will base their decisions on the science. Their daily briefings involve a medical representative and a scientist every day. They have said very openly that they are not clairvoyant but they will do their best based on what they know and are constantly updating their plans as their knowledge grows.

I think you have to take stats with a pinch of salt at this stage. They won't be truly useful until we are out the other side. However, if you do want to look at current stats, you will find that the mortality in the UK in relation to our population size, is not in a bad place compared with Italy, Spain or France. It is worth remembering though that the mortality rate is not dictated by policy or healthcare, but by the ability of people who get the virus to survive it. As such, a high mortality rate like you see in Lombardy is not the result of poor medical care - quite the reverse. It is because they have excellent medical care which allows many people to live long lives despite having serious health conditions.

Their figures are not accurate or reliable tbh. Where have they even got them from?

Well @dementedpixie in my opinion, people seem to lose their jobs when they tell Trump what he doesn't want to hear, so they decide what it is that he does want to hear, and then that's what they tell him.

That prediction seems to be a load of rubbish.
A lot of people seem so eager for the UK to be the worst, but we didn't really do much different to places like Italy or Spain. We locked down at almost the same point in infection as them.
I'll eat my words if we end up with 3 x the deaths of those two countries. I just don't see it.