Uk coronavirus deaths predicted to be 66,000 the worst in Europe, 2nd worse in world.

[HerstoryInTheMaking]

Why does this not surprise me. We were appalling slow to allow lockdown. Govt u-turn on herd immunity. Allowing Cheltenham and other events to go ahead. Those in charge need to be held accountable when this is over.

metro.co.uk/2020/04/07/uk-set-66000-coronavirus-deaths-becoming-worst-hit-europe-12521377/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

And instead, they banged on and on about herd immunity and “taking it in the chin”.Now THAT’S ridiculous.

I suspect many countries are trying to get some sort of immunity - they just haven't specifically said so.

Marsha one look at that report and you will see if for the shite it is. Pardon the language.

We will have 60000 deaths but Ireland 400 odd? And Italy 20k when it is already at 16.5k.

And thats before we start mentioning the inaccurate data re beds.

Random I knew people would expose any inaccuracies ; I’m data’d out today. But could rely on here to assess.

Plus much better than pp trying to work out tabloid reports etc

I agree on other countries and immunity btw

It says worst in Europe, but I can't see where it says 2nd worst in world. The data only covers USA, Europe and China.

There was an article in the Times about Cheltenham and how lots of people had picked up the infection there. I know quite a few. They managed it at home though (but probably spread it round their workplaces first).

People travel in from all over then would take the infection back home. It will have had an impact as it was just at the time cases were rising sharply but we didn’t know it so lots of lapse behaviour.

They've had 731 deaths today just in New York alone. I worry that they are really not taking it seriously over there.

Thanks @goingoverground for talking sense.
We should have needed 9646 beds on 6 April (says the model OP linked to). All models are wrong and some are a lot wronger than others.

I can't be bothered to look it up nationally, just want to say that, in my local area, we haven't even run out of usual CC beds yet. Plans are to double local capacity within a few days. Patients will be transferred around the country, if needed where extra CC beds might be

Real problem is the clinicians need to figure out, among the hospitalised, who can they send home, likely to not progress. Anyone know of any good risk stratification tools?

We won't reach the peak until 25th April.

How is we even know when the peak will be?

Do*

PowerslidePanda The reason we want to spread it out is that that if you get it bad then your chances will be better in an ICU bed with oxygen and a ventilator available than in a makeshift hospital tent in a field with piles of bodies nearby waiting to be burned.

We won't reach the peak until 25th April.

The Dr whose diary the BBC are publishing is estimating 8 days time (so the 15th).

Of course, it might be one figure is the start of the 3 week peak period, and the other is the midpoint of it, I don't know. That American website they used for the figures for the new research reckoned the 17th would be the day on which most resources would be required in the UK.

So, I think we can confidently say before the end of the month, but not for at least a week...

"66k is not worth destroying the nation economically for" unless of course you're one of them Xenia. Also that's not the figure. it's 500K+ if we ignore the virus and concentrate on increasing your personal wealth.

How is we even know when the peak will be?

They use infection rates and how long it takes for symptoms to appear/people to need hospitalisation/die, combined with the dates that restrictions on movement were brought in, to estimate when the biggest number of cases will be.

they banged on and on about herd immunity It's still going to depend on herd immunity. Do people think we cancelled that or something?

I know of two people who went to Cheltenham who have now died of coronavirus. Two others in contact are now in the ICU.

And instead, they banged on and on about herd immunity and “taking it in the chin”.Now THAT’S ridiculous

But did the goverment ever use the term 'herd immunity' ? I know the press and media pundits did, but I dont remember it being used by anyone else

I think the UK death rate will be 18,00-22,00. no where near as high as the number in the original post here.

Well Australia is ‘banging on’ about herd immunity now, and Sweden seems to be aiming the same way so perhaps the idea is not as silly as it sounds and the UK is not as stupid or irresponsible as some would like to make it out to be.

We have been given information right from the start. I think the Tories have handled the situation as well as they could have done, given the information available. Do you really think Labour would have done any better??

Well, i feel the early message of "its a very mild illness for 80% of the population" and the pushing of the "Herd immunity" plan, named by their med and scientific officers, led to not ordering in PPE or planning for mess testing, it lulled the Govt and the population into a false sense of security...... its shocking that Germany tests more in ONE day than we do in SIX & despite a larger population, have far fewer deaths....this is now acknowledged by the Govt,

Under Labour in 2009, the UK was thought to have one of the worlds most robust Pandemic plans, Austerity saw those plans run down, even the recommendations of Operation Cygnus (in 2016) were ignored.

The NHS will never catch back up with non CV treatment once this is over, if it ever is.

Well Australia is ‘banging on’ about herd immunity now, and Sweden seems to be aiming the same way so perhaps the idea is not as silly as it sounds and the UK is not as stupid or irresponsible as some would like to make it out to be

Don't post sensible stuff! You should know that's not allowed.

I am not interested in increasing my wealth in all this. I am concerned about 1m new universal credit cases and all the others whose lives are destroyed financially or socially in some cases never mind the deaths caused by the lock down measures and the bankruptcy of the nation. I prefer the Swedish solution and I would not have closed the schools.

I agree with xenia

Where are all the cases amongst teachers? Where are all the teacher deaths? Schools were fine.

There has been several teacher and teaching assistant deaths

www.expressandstar.com/news/health/coronavirus-covid19/2020/04/03/brierley-hill-school-teacher-dies-after-being-diagnosed-with-coronavirus/

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-52198458

Schools were closed early enough in the cycle that there was still limited exposure to the virus. My friend teaches in a school where there was transmission before the closure and several staff members became ill. None of them serious enough to be hospitalised, although my friend had quite bad breathing difficulties, so most people wouldn't hear about it. Do we have to reopen schools and have a certain number of teacher fatalities before we think school closure is a good idea?

The purpose of closing schools is to prevent large groups of people gathering in the same place, in the same way most offices were closed. And it would be a lot easier to manage social distancing with adults in an office than kids in a classroom.