563 dead today, is this our peak?

[Whitefeather01]

Surely we have to be close to peaking??

I’ll be interested to see the numbers of people who have died WITH the virus and those who died as a direct result OF as both are counted at the moment.

I hope the peak comes soon as people need to get back to work, yes the government will pay 80% but not indefinitely and it doesn’t stop companies going bust in the meantime. I would also hope that by the time they start to relax restrictions a bit that some from of immunity testing or antiviral will be in the pipeline meaning most could go back to relative normality

not near the peak. We are doubling every 3 days. This pattern IMHO will carry on for at least 10-12 days because average length of time between when patients catch Covid and die are 23 days.

So you re looking at 21/03 +23 days when it will possibly start leveling around 13/04.

Also I know there are younger people Getting this and becoming seriously ill/dying but these people are In the minority and experts have said this is rare. To be honest not a lot at all is said about those who have recovered

The expected peak was in June BEFORE lockdown happened. It won’t still be 11 weeks away now we’re already in lockdown, because that’s the whole point of lockdown: to shrink the numbers of new infections so they start going down not up. So deaths should peak in a few weeks from the start of lockdown if it’s worked.

And it is particularly worrying that there are doctors/nurses becoming seriously ill but they are being exposed over and over again whilst probably highly stressed and knackered which doesn’t do your immune system any favours. I work frontline nhs and a few of
My colleagues have tested positive with very few will effects other than mild symptoms

About 20 days ago, I said a very rough rule of thumb was that we were multiplying by 10 every 10 days.

21/3/20 233
31/3/20 2352

The rule is still holding strong for the time being. We need to see it slowing before we get to the peak.

Looking at the graphs, Italy has maybe peaked. Deaths per day have fallen for 4 consecutive days, but it's a bit early to tell if that is is.

We are 14 days behind Italy. So our peak might be in two weeks.

However, this relies on people not going out over the long weekend, not going out over the school holidays because "the kids are bored without online school", not going out in the nice weather. And I'm not convinced these things will not happen.

They're not reporting the deaths accurately. It's much higher and will keep climbing.

Junior doctor DS has told us to stay inside for the next 2 weeks as it will be peaking then.
We've not been out for 10days (DH) and 7 days (me) but we did go for an hour's walk today.

No, we've only been in lockdown a week so the people who were out the sunny weekend before may not be even showing symptoms yet.

The Trust my sister works at in the midlands is surging now, according to managers. She's rushed off her feet.

Amelie what are you talking about. If you seal someone inside their house you can't get food!

Do you want the death penalty brought back for people on the basis they are murderers? Where would you draw the line, are you talking people who have a big BBQ should all be guilty or are you thinking people who take the dog out twice on an empty Street?

It will go in waves across the uk.

@Michaelbaubles can you cite your sources for this? I could only find the ONS weekly total mortality which currently only runs to 20th March.

Statistically it's unlikely that ALL of the deaths with coronavirus are excess deaths (even if most are - the likely proportion which are excess will depend on the current prevalence of coronavirus in the UK which is obviously basically unknown currently)

DH says his hospital thinks the worst will be at the end of this month.
After an almost eerie calm things have suddenly ramped up at the hospital and he's now very busy as of the beginning of this week, he's now generally not covering his specialism except in acute emergencies (by rota) and now covering CV19 wards.
I was calm but now getting more and more worried for him and his colleagues, today has been a hard day.

Nope.

We're two weeks behind italy.

The planning is for 20k minimum this year if it goes well ... so no... no way near.

Shit stirring thread.

Everyone can access the death statistics here.

peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending20march2020

It is there in black and white, no need to make it up!

We're not even close to the peak. 500 in a day is nothing, really.

Why the fuck are people going to the beaches and parks ?? I genuinely don't understand .. why are they risking their own health even if they don't cate about anyone else's !!??

Most people aren’t going to crowded beaches and parks. Most people are staying at home and following guidelines. There’s always going to be some idiots swanning about like nothing’s happened but we don’t need everyone to follow the guidance in order for this to work, we just need enough of us to do it.

In fairness, plenty of people live right next to a beach. Not all beaches are like Brighton and not everyone has to drive to get to one.

A deserted beach is not very different from the rest of the countryside.

nope, these deaths will be based on ppl who had the virus up to two weeks ago, the UK is now in a much worse situation with the amount of ppl suffering being probably 3 times more.
I would think that numbers will increase over the next three weeks

Those who die were infected three or four weeks previously.

Three weeks ago in the UK, few (if any) measures had been taken:

• Boris was still boasting about shaking hands with everybody, including patients in a hospital
• The Cheltenham festival was running
• Pubs, rugby stadiums, etc. were full
• Liverpool were playing Madrid in a packed stadium in Liverpool
• Schools were still open for another two weeks

N. Italy had already taken extensive measures to curb the virus in the weeks leading up to their lock down. For example, football matches were played behind closed doors from late February.

Numbers will increase substantially day-on-day in the next four weeks. We have another eight/twelve weeks at least before the number of deaths start falling.